After going 2-0-0 last weekend in California, the Lobo Men’s Soccer team returns home to host the TLC Plumbing & Utility Invitational, where it will face Missouri State on Friday night at 7pm and face #21 American on Sunday at 6pm. Last Sunday’s opponent LMU rounds out the field, also playing Missouri State and American this weekend. This is a very important weekend for the Lobos, as they have a three match win streak on the line and start Conference USA play next week. If the Lobos can find wins in both matches, they could climb into the top 10 next week and could build the momentum to start strong in conference play.
The Matchup: Friday night’s game has some interesting stats to keep an eye on:
Missouri State:
- Has only scored one goal this season.
- Has only allowed two goals this season.
- Has yet to score in regulation.
- Has not allowed a goal over the past three matches
- Their only goal came on a penalty kick
New Mexico:
- Has not scored in the first half this year.
- Has one attacking player that has scored a goal.
Both Sides:
- Are averaging over 10 shots per match.
- Have received five yellow cards.
- Have won a match 1-0 in OT with a penalty kick.
While some of these stats are just interesting tidbits, it leads us to some understanding of how this game might play itself out. I haven’t had the chance to watch Missouri State play yet, but I have to wonder about the quality of the chances they are getting. With them not having scored in open play, one has to wonder if it has been bad luck or just an offensive attack that isn’t clicking. I expect Missouri State to play a defensive brand of soccer and try to see if the Lobos will get careless with the ball, giving them an opportunity for a transition goal. The Lobos need to take care of the ball and stay in formation, forcing Missouri State to take difficult shots.
For me, the most important things for the Lobos in this match are to find a combination that works up top and to find someone else who can find the back of the net. The Lobos still haven’t had a forward score a goal this season, and it’s certainly not for lack of ability. I think that the Lobos will be able to find this connection tonight and get someone else going on the attack. This will be an interesting match and could result in anything from a 0-0 draw or 3-0 win.
Players to Watch: For the Lobos, it is the attacking players not named Chris Wehan. At this point, everyone knows how great Wehan is and how important he is to this team. Getting ready to head into to conference play, we know what we have in Wehan, but the Lobos need at least one more player to be a consistent scoring threat. The first name that comes to my mind for this is Niko Hansen. The Lobos need to get Hansen going if they want to have a special year. Hansen played well last week and was able to put pressure on the other teams; he just wasn’t able to punch one in. I think this is the match where it clicks and the Lobos score at least two goals, with at least one coming from a non-Wehan Lobo.
For Missouri State I think the players to watch will be their backline. They will face pressure all night long and will have to keep an eye on Wehan as he will switch sides and attack from different areas. This will be one of the toughest match-ups that Missouri State will face this year, and it will be interesting if they will be able to withstand the Lobos pressure.
Odds and Prediction: In this match, I believe that the Lobos will come back home and take care of business, building on their three-match win streak. I would put the odds of UNM Soccer Complex celebrating a Lobo win at 67% and ending the night with at least a draw at 87%. I also think that we will witness our first Lobos first-half goal of the season and I think that it will be from Niko Hansen. My prediction is that the Lobos will control the play and win this match 3-0. It should be a beautiful night at the complex, so come on out and cheer on the Lobos.
Game info:
#15 New Mexico (3-1-1) vs. Missouri State University (1-1-2)
Location: Albuquerque, NM, UNM Soccer Complex
Date: Friday September 18th
Time: 7pm Mt
Stream: LoboTv