It seems fair to say that Lobo football fans aren’t thrilled about the team’s 1-2 start. After a considerable buildup in hype in the preseason that this could be the year UNM returns to a bowl game, the losses to ASU and, mostly, Tulsa have deflated expectations and are causing some to already begin looking towards next year. However, it’s worth keeping in mind that we are now only a quarter of the way through the season and that the Lobos still have nine chances to win five more games. If they were playing in the SEC, it would be difficult to even feign optimism. Luckily, the Lobos are in the Mountain West.

Below is the team’s remaining schedule. As we can see, only three of the remaining teams on the schedule even have a winning record, with none of the teams remaining undefeated after their first three games. The current overall FEI ranks show that most of the teams are not particularly well-thought of (for reference, UNM currently ranks 109^th), and win probabilities based on ESPN’s FPI only have the Lobos as longshots in the Boise State game. In fact, Boise State (33^rd) and Air Force (66^th) are the only two teams left on the schedule ranked in the top 80 teams in FPI (again, for reference, UNM is ranked 107^th).

Date	Team	Current Record	Current Overall FEI Rank	Current Estimated Win Probability (FPI)
September 26	@ Wyoming	0-3	119	70.1%
October 3	vs. New Mexico State	0-3	123	71.7%
October 10	@ Nevada	1-2	69	33.4%
October 17	vs. Hawaii	2-1	106	61.2%
October 24	@ San José State	1-2	103	29.6%
November 7	vs. Utah State	1-2	52	38.7%
November 14	@ Boise State	2-1	21	4.5%
November 21	vs. Colorado State	1-2	63	47.4%
November 28	vs. Air Force	2-1	83	26.7%

Based on these win probabilities, we can simulate seasons to determine the probability that UNM makes a bowl game, as we did last week. The distribution of the simulated win totals can be found in the plot below.

The probability of a bowl game, shown by the red bars, is now sitting at 32.5%, compared to last week’s probability of 34.4%. That means that the loss to ASU barely affected their chances, as it was, in reality, the expectation. Also for reference, the average number of simulated wins was 4.83, meaning that it’s still a reasonable expectation for the team to end up with 5 wins for the season.

The optimism for a potential bowl game was, I think, driven by the feeling that this team should be better than last year. However, the reason that optimism didn’t seem crazy was UNM’s schedule. After this past week, I think the team has the potential to be better than last year and the schedule hasn’t changed; a bowl game still seems to be in play.