After a couple of momentum-building wins that put the team in a good position to become bowl eligible, the Lobos hit a wall against Nevada, damaging their bowl prospects. This week saw the biggest change in their probability of becoming bowl eligible that we’ve seen this season, so maybe it’s not so surprising that it seems to correspond with how down about the season some fans appear to be. This loss makes next week’s game against Hawaii a must-win scenario if the team wants to have a realistic shot at making a bowl game.
As before, below is the team’s remaining schedule and some quick information about each match-up. It was a decent week for the Lobos’ future opponents, as they combined to go 4-2 on the week. Those teams who won saw a rise in their rankings (for reference, UNM’s FEI ranking is still sitting at 107), which, combined with the uninspiring UNM loss, lowered the estimated win probabilities for the Lobos against those opponents. The Utah State game was the sole match-up that saw a large drop in estimated win probability, but now the Lobos are currently favored in only the Hawaii game. I think that a large part of that is because the offense has dropped off significantly from last year. Getting it back on track is extremely important to any success the team will have for the rest of the season.
| Date | Team | Current Record (MWC) | Current Overall FEI Rank | Current Estimated Win Probability (FPI) |
| October 17 | vs. Hawaii | 2-4 (0-2) | 116 | 72.6% |
| October 24 | @ San José State | 3-3 (2-1) | 102 | 22.3% |
| November 7 | vs. Utah State | 3-2 (2-0) | 52 | 22.3% |
| November 14 | @ Boise State | 5-1 (2-0) | 15 | 1.8% |
| November 21 | vs. Colorado State | 2-4 (0-2) | 81 | 47.7% |
| November 28 | vs. Air Force | 3-2 (2-0) | 89 | 32.2% |
As we’ve been doing this whole season, based on these win probabilities, we can simulate seasons to determine the probability that UNM makes a bowl game (explanation here). The distribution of the simulated win totals can be found in the plot below.
The probability of a bowl game, shown by the red bars, is now sitting at 29.6%, compared to last week’s probability of 52.2%. This was a huge drop that basically put them back to where they were after the Arizona State game. Although their projected win probabilities in their remaining games mostly saw little change, they now have one fewer opportunity to pick up three more wins, which is the real driver for the drop in probability. The average number of wins across the simulations is 4.99, which is in line with what we see from the plot. In fact, based on these simulations, the probability of the team ending up with five wins is 37.9%.
The most realistic paths that the Lobos have towards becoming bowl eligible all start with a win this next Saturday against Hawaii. Not only is it by most measures the most winnable game remaining on the schedule, a loss would force them to go at least 3-2 in their last five games, which would seem like even more of a stretch at that point (current projections would put that at about an 8% chance of happening). That means this weekend is a pivotal game for the season, so having a good crowd could go a long way towards keeping their season on track.