Here it is, the final stretch of the season. The team is sitting at 4-4, including 2-2 in conference play, and still have dreams of making a bowl game. However, they’re about to run into the toughest part of their schedule, starting this week at home against Utah State. The Aggies have already taken down Boise State this season and they have their sights set on winning the conference. Coming off a bye week to prepare and get healthy, the Lobos are looking to make sure that doesn’t happen.
So who are we playing?
Utah State is currently sitting at the top of the Mountain Division, going 4-1 so far in conference play including an absolute thrashing of Boise State. Their lone loss came on the road to San Diego State, who is the only remaining team that is undefeated in their conference matchups. With all of that, there’s a decent chance that they’re actually the best team in the Mountain West this season. And that’s somewhat incredible, if we look back to where the program was five or six seasons ago, where they were also-rans in the WAC. With the right coach, who has since held gigs in the B1G and Pac-12 conferences, the program has completely turned around to the point that they will likely make their fifth straight bowl game this year. Needless to say, what happened with them is what we UNM fans hope to see out of our school.
The Aggies this season look to be defined by balance. They are roughly an equally good offensive and defensive team, they spend as much time on the ground as they do in the air, and they defend well against both the pass and the run. There’s no obvious weakness to the team that can be exploited, so the Lobos are certainly in for a challenge tomorrow. If there’s anything to be encouraged by, the loss to SDSU might have given a blueprint to beating the Aggies that the Lobos can replicate. The Aztecs ran the ball 61 times and only threw it 10 times, which is certainly up the Lobos’ alley, and they took care of the ball, winning the turnover battle 4-0. They also were able to limit big plays, forcing Utah State to focus on pickup up yards in small chunks. That will be the bigger challenge for UNM, as they’ve certainly been prone to giving up big runs up the middle this season, but if they can do it, their chances will be much better.
On offense, the Aggies are without their starting quarterback, but that has appeared to be a good thing for them so far. Since Chuckie Keeton went down with his annual knee injury, Kent Myers has been really good behind center. Myers has completed almost two thirds of his passes and has averaged 8.4 yards per attempt. He has also thrown nine touchdowns compared to one interception, so with that sort of performance, it’s no surprise that Utah State’s offense has hit 50+ points in three of the five games that he’s started. He had one game where he ran the ball extremely well and has been somewhat effective in the other games, so the Lobos will also need to keep him from getting away, especially on broken plays.
In the backfield, the Aggies have been relying on the combination of Lajuan Hunt and Devante Mays. Hunt started the season as the primary back, but recently, it appears as though Mays has surpassed him. That makes sense, though, as Mays has put up twice as many yards on the season in fewer attempts than Hunt. Hunt appears to be the bigger threat out of the backfield, so if he gets action it might be on passing downs. For the receiving corps, 6’0” WR Hunter Sharp has been the primary target, leading the team in receptions, receiving yards, and receiving touchdowns. There are a couple other receivers that see plenty of action, namely Devonte Robinson and Andrew Rodriguez, but the target who might give the Lobos the most trouble is 6’5” TE Wyatt Houston. The Lobos tend to have issues with big targets, and Houston certainly qualifies as one. The linebackers will have their hands full this game, but keeping him in check will have to be one of their priorities.
The Aggies’ defense is led by linebacker and tackling machine Nick Vigil, who was first team all-conference last season. The junior leads the conference in tackles, like he did last season, and is currently fourth overall in the FBS. Last season, he forced five fumbles, which led the entire FBS, so his one forced fumble this season somehow seems like a disappointment. Amazingly, he might not be the best linebacker on the team. Senior Kyle Fackrell was recently named as one of the 10 semifinalists for the Butkus Award, which goes to the best linebacker in the country. He is second on the team in tackles, has recorded three sacks, and has forced two fumbles. Their strong group of linebackers provided the backbone to their strong defense, which features several other players having strong seasons. The best example of this happened in the Boise State game, when the defense forced an astonishing eight turnovers. The Lobos will need to have their best offensive execution of the season if they are going to have a chance to move the ball against this team, so hopefully they tightened things up during their bye week.
Team Comparison
With this week’s update of the OFEI and DFEI ratings, we can see how the Lobos and their opponents are doing by those metrics this season compared to all of the other FBS teams. Unfortunately, where the Lobos look to be in worse shape this year, as they no longer have an above average offense. Utah State, on the other hand, has been good on both offense and defense this season, which is why they’re currently sitting at the top of the Mountain Division.
In terms of FEI, Utah State has the 32nd ranked offense and the 40th ranked defense in all of the FBS. For good measure, they also have the 20th ranked special teams. They’ve been good in all facets of the game this season. The Lobos, unfortunately, are on the other side of those rankings. They are 92nd in offense, 115th in defense, and 91st in special teams. In terms of overall FEI ranking, Utah State is ranked 43rd nationally while the Lobos are 113th. By all measures, the Lobos look to be significant underdogs.
As we have been doing recently, we’ll be comparing the production of each team by yards per attempt. The first two plots show the breakdowns of yards gained by both teams and the yards allowed by both teams. In the first plot, we see that the Lobos have been better on the ground and worse in the air compared to the Aggies, but the ultimate results give similar production in terms of yards per play. Defensive production is clearly where the teams separate, though. Utah State has been really effective against the run, only allowing 3.6 yards per carry, and they’ve also been good against the pass. The resulting 4.7 yards allowed per play ends up putting them in the top 20 of all FBS teams.
In the following plot, we see the difference between the teams’ points scored and points allowed. UNM is now just barely holding on to a positive point differential, outscoring their opponents by 1.9 points per game. Utah State, on the other hand, has a much larger positive point differential, outscoring their opponents by 7.4 points per game. What is strange about their season is that their only game that had a single digit scoring margin was against Southern Utah, a non-major opponent. All of the rest of their games, both wins and losses, have been decided by at least 10 points.
What’s going on at Quarterback? (Post-Bye Edition)
At some point, I’m going to retire this section, but by the looks of it, that might not be this season. Coach Davie threw us a curveball in the last game when he went with Austin Apodaca the entire game. It didn’t go as well as he might have liked, as Apodaca was only able to go 8-20 for 130 yards and an interception against a solid SJSU pass defense. Since then, Davie has declared that both Apodaca and Lamar Jordan will see action in at least this next game, if not the rest of the season. I’m still of the opinion that picking one of the two and sticking with him would be my preference, but it doesn’t look like that’s going to happen. So, here’s to Austin and Lamar somehow getting this offense back to being effective.
Did the Bye Week Help?
One issue that has been plaguing the Lobos all season is the health of their defensive line. Because of the injuries to Garrett Hughes, Kene Okonkwo, and Chris Lee, players who weren’t expected to be relied on have been forced into service regularly, which could be a big part of why the defense has been prone to give up big runs up the middle. There’s hopes that all three will be back on Saturday, but even if just one or two of them are available, it would be a big help. There are other players that look like they’ve been a little banged up, so hopefully they were able to take the extra week between games to heal up so they can be at full strength against Utah State. The coaches also had the luxury of taking two weeks to devise an implement a solid game plan for the game. If the team doesn’t seem ready on Saturday, that would be disconcerting, to say the least.
Will Fans Show Up?
Aside from the NMSU game, where the team drew more than 30k fans, attendance hasn’t been particularly impressive this season. The last game, which, if you remember, was homecoming, only 20,541 showed up to watch the Lobos beat Hawaii. Games after disappointing losses don’t tend to see a spike in attendance, and with the weather looking like it might be a bit chilly, there’s a chance that we’ll see a season-low turnout on Saturday. I hope that’s not the case. This is a really big game for the team and a win would easily be the biggest in the Bob Davie Era. A few of us from Lobo Lane will be there; hopefully we’ll see you too.
Prediction
The line for this game has Utah State by 14.5, which is probably fair if not on a bit on the high side. My head tells me that the Aggies are going to win, with a final score looking something like 35-24. My heart has the Lobos squeaking out an exciting victory.
Game Info
What: The University of New Mexico (4-4) vs. Utah State University (5-3)
Where: University Stadium, Albuquerque, NM
When: Saturday, November 7 at 1:30pm MT
Where to Watch: CBS Sports Network
How to Listen: 770 KKOB