The Lobos are now riding a four-game winning streak that has put them at 7-2 in conference play with two games remaining against the league-leading San Diego State Aztecs. The first of those games is tomorrow in San Diego, where the Lobos will be looking to make up a little ground to put them within striking distance of first place. It’s nice to have this rivalry back to where it feels like it’s supposed to be: right at the top of the conference standings and jockeying for another championship.
A Little About San Diego State
San Diego State is helmed by Steve Fisher, who is now in his 17th season of being the man in charge. He’s legitimately taken the program from being a perennial pushover to one that expects to make the NCAA Tournament each year. They’ve done just that the past six years, including two trips to the Sweet Sixteen, and have a decent chance to do it again this year. Unfortunately, because they had a lackluster showing in non-conference play and because the conference as a whole is down so there are few quality wins to be had, unless they win the MWC Tournament, there’s no guarantee that they’ll hear their name be called on Selection Sunday. Still, they’re off to a perfect start in conference play, winning their first 10 games, including games at UNLV, Boise St., and Nevada. They haven’t looked invincible, though, having several close calls already. Sometimes it’s better to be lucky than good, but it’s best to be both.
There are certainly some familiar faces in the Aztec starting lineup, the most recognizable probably being Winston Shepard. Shepard, a 6’8” senior wing, made all sorts of friends in New Mexico at the end of his recruitment process and is still well received every time he steps into The Pit. On offense, Shepard is a terrible shooter, with a 29.2% rate from deep and a 36.9% rate for twos, but he makes up for it in two ways: offensive rebounds and drawing fouls. He’s always been good at drawing fouls, but this year he’s improved his free throw shooting to 73.6%, which makes that ability all the more valuable. On defense, he’s quick and long, so he’s pretty effective.
The other familiar face from recruiting is Zylan Cheatham, who is a 6’9” forward playing his freshman season after missing last year with a leg injury. He’s had a really good freshman year, showing some ability to score and to rebound while sliding right into the Aztecs’ elite defense. He might be the Aztecs best all-around player already, which is fun, as he has three more years of eligibility. He is a strong candidate for freshman of the year in the conference, but might still lose the award to his teammate, Jeremy Hemsley. Hemsley has taken over as the primary ball handler is currently the team’s leading scoring, with 13.0 points per game. He’s also one of just two Aztecs who have shown the ability to make a three pointer with any sort of consistency.
The other three point shooter is Trey Kell. Kell is a sophomore guard who was asked to run the point last season to mixed results, but seems much more comfortable this year playing as an off-guard. After only shooting 21.2% from deep last year, he’s shot it at a 37.1% clip this year, which is much more in line with what was expected from him coming out of high school. He’s been their leading scorer in conference play so far, with almost 16 points per game, so he’ll be a guy the Lobos will be looking to slow down tomorrow.
The final starter is Skylar Spencer, a 6’10” senior post who goes out of his way looking to block shots. Because of that, he averages almost 2 blocks per game, but he can also find himself in foul trouble occasionally. He also isn’t a guy who looks for his shot much on offense, but he’s a really good rebounder, which leads to some second-chance points. He’s also a terrible free throw shooter, making 55.3% of his attempts, which is still the best percentage of his career.
As a whole, San Diego State makes their name on the defensive end, as per usual. By KenPom.com’s efficiency metrics, they are currently the third best defense in the country, only trailing Valparaiso and UConn. The way they do that is by forcing their opponents to take tough shots and end up with poor shooting percentages and by not sending their opponents to the free throw line. On offense, however, things are a bit of a mess. They are a really, really poor shooting team, ranking 313th in effective field goal percentage, and they have a tendency to turn the ball over. Their saving graces on offense are that they manage to take a lot of free throws and they pick up a lot of offensive boards to give themselves second chances. They also tend to play really slowly, having the 327th highest tempo in the country, so if they have their way, this will be a sloppy, grind-it-out sort of game.
Scattered Thoughts
- The Lobos are now officially halfway through the conference season, sitting at 7-2. Going into this year, I would have figured that there was a decent chance 7-2 would put them at least tied for first place, but instead they find themselves 2.5 games back of SDSU. Looking at the upcoming schedule, it looks to me as though the Lobos have the tougher slate of games ahead of them, so I don’t know how much help they can expect out of their opponents for them to catch up to the Aztecs. It might actually take the Lobos winning out for that to happen, so there’s not a lot of room for error if they’re going to do it. That means this game has some high stakes. If they win, they’ll be in the driver’s seat all of the sudden. If they lose, the Aztecs might as well start sizing their rings.
- I think that there are plenty of Lobo fans who, given the Lobos’ tendency to turn the ball over and SDSU’s history of forcing turnovers, are more than a little worried about what the Aztecs’ pressure defense will do in this game. I can’t say that isn’t a concern of mine, because it absolutely could end up being an issue. But, this Aztec team isn’t nearly as proficient as they have been in the past at forcing turnovers. In fact, the Lobos aren’t particularly good at turning the other team over, but they’ve actually been a little better than the Aztecs. Now, the Lobos have been bad about turning the ball over, so they could very well end up with a bunch of turnovers tomorrow. They just might have as much control over it as SDSU does.
Prediction
The Aztecs are a hard team to figure out, as they have the ability to completely lock their opponents down, but they have major issues on offense. Because of that, they’ve played in some close games against inferior teams simply because they couldn’t score. If they do get some offense, there’s a decent chance that they’ll beat the Lobos handily. If they don’t, the Lobos’ offense might just be good enough to be the difference in the game. As an optimist, I’ll take the Lobos to win 65-60, but I’m ready for just about anything.
Game Info
Who: UNM Lobos (14-8, 7-2) at San Diego State Aztecs (17-6, 10-0)
Where: Viejas Arena, San Diego, CA
When: Saturday, February 6, 2016 at 2:00pm MT
Radio: 770 KKOB
TV: CBS Sports Network