The Lobos went to San Diego to face the hated Aztecs with a chance to control their own destiny in conference play. After a hard-fought, physical game, it is perhaps unfortunate that the big takeaway from the game was an officiating error. It is more unfortunate that it went against the Lobos and likely cost them the game. Now, although it’s not impossible, it’s become much more difficult for the team to win the regular season championship and it will likely require them to win out. The first step towards that happens in Logan, UT against the Utah State Aggies, who are likely to be desperate to salvage their season.
San Diego State Game Recap
In a game that featured the top two teams in the conference standings, the Lobos and the Aztecs slugged it out and made it clear that not only are they truly the two best teams in the conference, their rivalry is as strong as ever. The teams played even throughout, clearly, as the game went to overtime, but the lead never got above 7 for either side. Plus, these teams clearly don’t like each other.
The first half was relatively even, although for the most part it seemed like the Lobos had the upper hand. Neither team was shooting well, despite having several open looks on each side, but it felt as though the Lobos were doing just a little bit more. Then, the Aztecs had one of their runs that they’ve become infamous for. After finding themselves down by four, SDSU used a flurry of steals and defensive rebounds that led to outlet passes and transition opportunities for a quick (for them) 10-0 run over a 2:18 stretch to put them up by 6. That means that for the half, they scored 18 points in the other 17:42 minutes of play. Still, that’s certainly an aspect of their team and a big chunk of their offense. However, the Lobos were able to right the ship and come back at the end of the half to go into the locker room with a 29-28 advantage.
The second half was another back-and-forth affair, with the teams trading baskets, and cold spells, for the first seven minutes. Then, the Aztecs got some offense from an unlikely source. Skylar Spencer, who is primarily a shot-blocker and rebounder, scored six points in fairly rapid succession to spark a 10-2 run for the Aztecs that gave them a 7 point lead. The way the game was going, a 7-point lead seemed insurmountable, but the Lobos refused to give up. After an Obij Aget dunk and an Elijah Brown three, the Lobos were back within two and ready to fight until the end. The two teams traded baskets for a bit until Xavier Adams, who had only hit three threes previously, nailed a shot from deep to give the Lobos a 2 point lead with 2:36 to go. The Lobos were able to protect that slim lead until Elijah made a ridiculous off-balance three to put them up by 5 with 22 seconds to go.
If you’re reading this, you probably have a good idea of what happened next. The Aztecs made a layup with 12 seconds remaining to cut the lead to three and then they called a timeout to set up their defense. During that timeout, Coach Neal called an inbounds play that required Xavier to step out of bounds to receive a pass from Cullen and then pass the ball in himself. In the exchange, the official ruled that he hadn’t established himself out of bounds, which gave the Aztecs the ball and renewed life. Replays showed that X had, in fact, gotten his foot down, but the play wasn’t reviewable, so that was little consolation, even if the conference issued a statement on it. On the ensuing possession, SDSU’s Malik Pope was practically dared to shoot a three by Xavier, which he did and he drilled it.
Now, there is certainly a case that can be made that X should have closed out on him and not given him an open look, but there’s also the case that he’s exactly the guy that the Lobos wanted to take that shot. Before he made that shot, he was shooting a whopping 8-43 from deep on the season against D-1 teams, which is “good” for an 18.6% rate. Maybe the lack of a closeout was a mental lapse or maybe it was intentional. Either way, it didn’t work and the game went to overtime. The guys fought hard, but it was clear that they were deflated from the way regulation ended and the Aztecs were back to being full of life. Perhaps it isn’t much of a surprise that the Aztecs were able to go on another 10-0 run to close the game out with a 78-71 win.
Despite that, there are a few positives to take from this game. They played a lot of good defense, they took care of the ball, and they did show that they can run some offense to get looks for their shooters (even if they weren’t making them this time). We also now know, and the team knows, that they can beat the Aztecs. If things go the way that they look like they are headed, the Lobos will get a crack at them at home and at a neutral site. I’m looking forward to UNM taking the season series, 2-1.
Players of the Game
- Tim Williams (46 points on the season): Tim had one of his quietly dominant games, scoring 21 points and grabbing 7 boards in his 43 minutes while shooting 8-15 from the field. One of the best things that he did all game was his work on the offensive glass. He ended up with three offensive boards, which is good by itself, but his fighting for those rebounds sometimes prevented the Aztecs from getting easy transition baskets, as they weren’t able to make an outlet pass that would catch the Lobos sleeping. That’s a huge part of their offense, as they don’t have a particularly good idea of what to do in the half-court, so anything the Lobos could do to prevent that was important to shutting them down.
- Elijah Brown (44 points on the season): Elijah had a terrible shooting night, missing more open shots than I think he had all season to date, but he still managed to put up 23 points. It helped that three of his four made shots were from three point range, but the main thing that contributed to his scoring was his ability to get to the line. Elijah is a smart player and is more than willing to let his opponents foul him, whether it’s by putting himself or his defender in a position where there’s no choice but to foul. It’s become somewhat of a common response in the past couple of days that the missed call at the end of the game was balanced out by the fouls that Elijah drew, which is kind of a strange type of logic in itself, but the truth is that the Aztecs play ultra-aggressive on offense and Elijah used that to his advantage. I’m surprised more players aren’t able to against them.
- Xavier Adams (6 points on the season): X is really carving out a role for himself as the energy guy off the bench, but he’s also sneakily convinced Noodles to forgo the two-big lineup more often than not when either O or Tim need to come off the floor. In his 22 minutes, he was able to play strong defense, rebound well, and even hit a huge three towards the end of regulation to give the Lobos a late lead. He’s getting better as the season goes on and he’ll be an important piece if the Lobos are going to do well in the MWC Tournament, or anything that might come after that.
Utah State Game Preview
This will be the second time for the Lobos to face the Aggies, having beat them at home 77-59 a month ago. Since then, the Aggies have been in a bit of a free fall. They’ve lost five straight games to put them at 3-8 in conference play, which is tied with Air Force and SJSU for last place. Still, they can be a tough team when they’re playing at home, so there’s no reason to think that this game will be a cakewalk.
Most of what I mentioned in the preview for the last time we played them holds true, although there have been a couple of things worth updating. First, Grayson Moore, who managed to earn his way into the starting lineup beginning with their game against us, broke his foot and will miss the rest of the season. That’s definitely a loss for the Aggies, as he was giving them good minutes as a high-energy/hustle sort of guy and they simply don’t have a ton of size or depth to begin with.
With Grayson’s injury and the team’s general struggles, the starting lineup has shuffled around a bit. Interestingly, after using six different starting lineups this season, Utah State is now back to the starting lineup they began the season with: Darius Perkins, Julion Pearre, Chris Smith, Elston Jones, and Jalen Moore. Jones is the only one that I didn’t touch on in the last preview, but he’s a 6’9” big who is averaging 4.4 points and 3.6 rebounds per game and has a tendency to get into foul trouble. That he is the starting center is more of a comment on the team’s interior depth than anything. Tim was able to abuse them down low last time, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see an emphasis on getting him the ball again.
Smith and Moore are still the guys that make this offense go, so if the Lobos can slow them down it will give them a great chance to win this game. The Lobos made them take a combined 31 shots to score 31 points the last time out, so if they do that again, they should be in good shape. As a team, although you might not have guessed it if the last time these teams played was the only time you’ve watched the Aggies, they’re a very good three point shooting team that has several guys capable of hitting shots. However, they are awful at guarding the three-point line, allowing their opponents to shoot over 38% from deep. It’s easy to imagine either (or both) of Elijah or Cullen getting hot against the Aggies, as they will likely both have some open looks.
Scattered Thoughts
- So that loss stings for a bunch of reasons, but not the least being that it effectively handed SDSU the regular season conference title. The Aztecs are now up 3.5 games with only 7 games remaining on their schedule, so it would actually be a bit of a meltdown if they managed to not end up in first. I know that as fans we tend to focus on whether or not the team makes the NCAA Tournament to gauge the team’s success, which realistically will only happen if they win the MWC Tournament at this point, so this game might not matter in that sense. But, winning conference titles definitely matters to the players and the coaches. It’s a major bummer that goal might now be out of reach.
- I was trying to figure out why the call at the end of regulation wasn’t reviewable and the best that I could come up with is that when they were deciding what plays should be reviewable and what shouldn’t, they either figured that it would probably never be an issue or they just plain forgot about it. I mean, the call seemed obscure enough that on Twitter, former players and coaches who analyze the game for a living couldn’t seem to agree on what the rule actually was because it basically never comes up. Still, it’s effectively an out-of-bounds call with less than two minutes in the game; I don’t see why it couldn’t be reviewable.
- If we can take a step back and look at the conference at the whole, it’s kind of amazing how much of a mess most of the conference is. UNLV is on a three-game losing streak, Utah State is on a five-game losing streak, Boise St. just lost to Air Force, Fresno State just lost to SJSU, and fifth place in the conference is a tie between Nevada and Colorado St., both of which have 5-5 records. At the moment, the main team I’d be worried about in the conference tournament is SDSU, and we’re in good shape to be on the opposite side of the bracket from them. Kind of a crazy year for the Mountain West.
Prediction
I think that what will dictate the outcome of this game is how the Lobos respond to what happened on Saturday. If the team is still rattled from the way they lost, then this game could be a huge letdown. However, if they can bounce back, Utah State might be having to play a team with a no shortage of motivation and a chip on their shoulder. Earlier this season, I might have been worried about a letdown, but I have a lot more confidence in these guys now. So, I’ll take them to win 79-71.
Game Info
Who: UNM Lobos (14-9, 7-3) at Utah State Aggies (11-11, 3-8)
Where: Dee Glen Smith Spectrum, Logan, UT
When: Tuesday, February 9, 2016 at 8:00pm MT
Radio: 770 KKOB
TV: CBS Sports Network