The Lobos (14-11, 7-7) are coming off two straight wins to get back to .500 in conference play, the most impressive win coming at Boise State, where they controlled the game from the opening tip. The home game against Air Force went as everyone expected, with the Lobos leaving no doubt into who would win the game. One thing that could have sparked the win streak that the Lobos are on was Coach Sanchez inserting Jaisa Nunn and Jayda Bovero into the starting lineup. Nunn has been really good as a freshman for the Lobos and once she is able to play 30 minutes a game at a high level, she will be an All-Conference caliber player.
The differences between the team the Lobos just played, the single-win AFA, and the single-loss Colorado State are drastic, which will provide a tough test for the Lobos. It will be important for the Lobos to be full strength to compete against the Rams, which is only in question because Khadijah Shumpert and Bryce Owens have been sick the last few days. The Lobos will need to play well from the opening tip and keep in touch with the Rams, otherwise it could be a very long day for the Lobos. As we will see later, the Rams are a very balanced team that will attack you in many different ways and are not reliant on one player to score a lion’s share of the points.
The Lobos must take care of the ball and limit the extra possessions they give the Rams. When you are playing against the best team in the conference, and a newly ranked one at that, you have to find ways to get the extra possessions for yourself, and make sure that you take the best shots that you can on a given possession. Lobos have the players to play with the Rams, but they all have to show up and have great games for the Lobos to have a realistic chance to win this game. Shumpert and Cherise Beynon need to have their best games of the year for the Lobos, as well as get a good supporting cast tonight.
Colorado State Rams:
The CSU Rams (24-1, 14-0) are led by fourth-year Head Coach Ryun Williams, who has rebuilt CSU back into the conference power it was 10 to 15 years ago. The Rams won the Mountain West regular season title last year, but were upset in the conference tournament and didn’t make the NCAA Tournament, having to settle for a trip the WNIT. This year, the Rams should be able to make the NCAA Tournament even if they don’t win the conference tournament. The Rams are the first ranked Mountain West women’s team in the last handful of years, and it is hard to envision a situation that would keep the Rams out of the NCAA Tournament.
The Rams are not only the best team in the conference, they are the most balanced team as well. The Rams will probably not be represented on the postseason All-Conference awards as they should because of that balance. The Rams have four players that are averaging double figures, a player averaging 7 points, and five players averaging between 3 and 4.5 points. CSU’s leading scorer is Jamie Patrick, who is averaging 12.7 points while shooting 48.3% from the floor and 41.1% from three. The other three Rams in double figures to keep an eye on are Ellen Nystrom 10.9, Keyora Wharry 10.4, Elin Gustavsson 10.3. The Rams balance continues in other areas of the game including on the glass and in assists.
Team Stat Comparison
- Points Per Game: Lobos 62.7; Rams 70.3
- Points Allowed Per Game: Lobos 58.8; Rams 51.9
- Field Goal Percentage: Lobos 37.6%; Rams 44.8%
- Three Point Percentage: Lobos 28.6%; Rams 34.4%
- Free Throw Percentage: Lobos 64.4%; Rams 70%
- Defensive Field Goal Percentage: Lobos 37.3%; Rams 33.3%
- Defensive Three Point Percentage: Lobos 31.5%; Rams 26.1%
- Rebounds Per Game: Lobos 40; Rams 38.3
- Assists Per Game: Lobos 13.7; Rams 15.7
- Turnovers Per Game: Lobos 15.1; Rams 12
- Turnovers Forced Per Game: Lobos 17.9; Rams 16.2
Picks
On Saturday, I ended up going a perfect 5-0 on my picks, which means that I have improved to 53-21 in MW picks this season. Here are my picks for Wednesday’s action:
CSU at UNM
UNLV vs BSU
FSU at AFA
USU vs. Nevada
SDSU vs WYO
Conference Standings
- CSU 14-0
- FSU 12-2
- BSU 9-5
- SJSU 9-6
- UNM 7-7
- UNLV 7-8
- USU 6-8
- SDUS 5-9
- WYO 5-10
- Nevada 4-10
- AFA 1-14
Lobos are in an interesting spot, because even more so than the men, you want to be on the other side of the bracket from the number one seed. The Lobos right now are in the five spot, which puts them on the same side as CSU. It will be almost impossible for the Lobos to move up to the three seed unless they win all of their remaining games, so it might actually be strangely beneficial for them to drop back down to the six or seven seed. Either way, if they are going to win the conference tournament, they will probably have to beat CSU at some point, so they should focus on making sure that they are playing their best basketball in two weeks.
Prediction
This will be a very tough matchup for the Lobos, as CSU is by far the class of the Mountain West and one of the better teams in the country. This is the only meeting between the two teams this year and if things had played out differently I would like the Lobos chances a lot more. CSU is the definite favorite in this game, so I give the Lobos are 25% chance of winning this game. I predict a 75-63 CSU win, I hope that I am wrong and the Lobos win against a nationally ranked team.
Game Info
Who: New Mexico (14-11, 7-7) vs. #25 CSU (24-1, 14-0)
Where: WisePies Arena AKA The PIT, Albuquerque NM
When: Wednesday, February 24, 7 PM MT
Radio: 610 AM
Stream: Campus Insiders