With an opportunity to move back into second place in the conference with a win against Fresno State, the Lobos instead dropped to 5^th with a 92-82 loss. It feels like the season could be slipping away from them at this point, as they’ve now lost three straight and seem to be searching for answers on the defensive end. It doesn’t get any easier now, though, as they host the regular season conference champs, San Diego State. However, a win against the Aztecs could be exactly what this team needs right now, as it could help build back up their confidence just in time for the MWC Tournament.

Game Recap

In a game with a lot on the line for the Lobos, both in terms of conference tournament seeding and building some positive momentum for the end of the season, things couldn’t have started out much better. Well, that’s not exactly true, as once again, they allowed their opponent to jump out to an early lead thanks to a slow start. But, after allowing Fresno State to build up a 7-0 lead, the Lobos ripped off a 22-2 run thanks to some tough defense, solid rebounding, and good ball movement. At the end of that run, the Lobos were looking like the team they were earlier in the season, the one that seemed like it could beat just about anyone. But then Fresno started to chip away at that lead, turning what was at one point a 13 point Lobo lead to just 2 points by the end of the half.

It might be easy to think that the lead disappeared because, in part, the Lobos went cold on offense. However, that just wasn’t the case. In the first 10 minutes of the half, the Lobos scored 22 points. In the next 10 minutes, they scored 21. In fact, if we break the game down into 10-minute quarters, the Lobos scored 22, 21, 19, and 20 points in those quarters, respectively. Instead, it wasn’t the offense that changed, it was the defense. After locking the Bulldogs down for only 11 points in the first 10 minutes, they gave up 31 points over the rest of the half.

The defense continued to falter over the second half, where they allowed Fresno to score 20 points in the “third quarter” and 31 in the “fourth”. Part of it was that they allowed the Bulldogs to get a lot of open looks from beyond the arc, especially allowing Julien Lewis, who was 9-35 beyond the arc going into this game, to have several uncontested looks to go 5-6 from deep. They also couldn’t stop Marvelle Harris from getting to the line. Admittedly, he is very good at doing that, ranking a little behind Elijah in the conference in that category. However, letting a single guy shoot 17 free throws is a hard pill to swallow. So, although the team was able to do a pretty good job on offense, they just weren’t able to do enough on the other end of the floor to get the win. When you score 82 points in a game, you should feel pretty good about your chances to win. However, if you give up 92, you’re not going to come out on top all that often.

Players of the Game

For each game, I’m choosing my top three players of the game and giving them points (3 for first, 2 for second, and 1 for third). We’ll keep track of the points all season.

1. Elijah Brown (57 points on the season): Elijah scored half of the team’s points, so it would feel silly putting anyone else at the top spot. He carried the team offensively for stretches, ending up with 41 points, 11 rebounds, and 6 assists. However, Elijah was upset at himself for this performance because, for one, he had 6 turnovers and, for another, he feels he could have done better on defense. That competitive nature he has to never be satisfied and his desire to become a more complete player is one of the reasons that he’s made such a huge leap forward this year, and is also why the best might be yet to come.
2. Tim Williams (61 points on the season): I continue to be impressed with the production that Tim keeps giving, despite the fact that teams seem to do everything in their power to prevent him from getting the ball down low. He ended up with 18 points and 6 boards, which is starting feel on the low end of what I expect out of him. If he could get his jump shot to be a little bit more consistent, he would practically be unstoppable on offense.
3. Cullen Neal (18 points on the season): Cullen had his best game in a little while, putting up 9 points, grabbing 5 rebounds, and dishing out 2 assists. He also is starting to just look more like his usual self again, which is a good sight to see. Also, fun fact: in the 12 games since the seven-game stretch between the Rice game and the first Fresno State game, where he had at least 4 turnovers in each game and got a lot of people up in arms about his turnovers, he’s only hit the 4 turnover mark once. He can still tighten things up a bit, but he’s not as careless with the ball as some people seem to think.

A Little About San Diego State

Depending on how the next two weeks go for the Lobos, it would be really easy to point to the game in San Diego as the turning point of the season. Going into that game, they had just won four in a row to improve to 7-2 in conference play, just a little behind SDSU. They managed to have the Aztecs on the ropes at the end of the game, until an officiating error gave the Aztecs new life and deflated the Lobos, who eventually lost in overtime. Since that loss, the Lobos have gone 2-4 to slide down to 5^th place and are looking for some sort of way to right the ship in time for the conference tournament.

The Aztecs, on the other hand, have been able to lock up the regular season conference championship with a couple of games to spare. Despite that, they find themselves to likely be in the same scenario as literally everyone else in the conference: needing to win the MWC Tournament to make it to the NCAA Tournament. There were some thoughts a week or so ago that maybe, just maybe, if they happened to go win out the rest of the way to go 17-1 in the conference, and then lose in the conference championship, they might get an at-large bid, which would give the conference an unlikely second bid. That all came crashing down in the last minute of their game on Saturday against Boise State, where they allowed the Broncos to come back from a nine-point deficit to pull out a three-point victory. Their famed holding on for a win when leading with five minutes left streak was snapped in the process as well.

The Aztecs have seen a couple of changes since the last time the Lobos played them. For one, Jeremy Hemsley missed a game due to a foot injury, which prompted a change in the starting lineup. After trying out Dakarai Allen in his place for a game, Coach Fisher instead has rolled out the unusual lineup of Trey Kell, Winston Shepard, Zylan Cheatham, Malik Pope, and Skylar Spencer. That, obviously, is a very tall lineup, as Kell is the only guy under 6’8” in that group, but thanks to the athleticism of the others, it might end up being effective (there might not be enough ball-handlers in this group, though). However, since they’ve made that switch, they’ve played Air Force, SJSU, and Boise State, so I think the jury is still out on whether or not that’s worth continuing in the future. My guess is that Hemsley will be back in the starting lineup soon, maybe even for this game.

As a whole, they’re still basically the same team that the Lobos faced a few weeks ago. They play excellent defense, which keeps them in just about every game, and they seem to be able to score just enough to pull out a win, mostly on fast break opportunities. They don’t shoot particularly well as a team, although I wouldn’t leave Kell or Hemsley open, but they’re good enough on the offensive glass to give them plenty of extra chances to make up for their misses. If the Lobos can force the Aztecs to become a half-court team and make sure that they don’t allow them to get many second-chance opportunities, I think they have a good shot to win. However, if they get panicked and take bad shots or make bad passes that lead to fast breaks, it could be a long night for the home team.

Scattered Thoughts

• I’ve been trying to wrap my head around the team’s defensive struggles recently, and although there are a number of reasons why they’ve been having issues, a couple have been sticking out to me recently. First, I keep thinking that this team would look a lot different if Devon and J.J. were able to play. Going into the season, the team had six posts on the roster, but because of the injuries and the transfer, they’re left with their two starters and the guy who started out as the third-string power forward. That lack of depth really rears its ugly head when they start getting into foul trouble, as they either have to stay on the bench or play defense more tentatively. Either way, it’s not a good thing. The second thing is that between Tim Williams and Elijah Brown, the Lobos have two guys who feel – or maybe were even told – they have to stay out of foul trouble so they can stay in the game to carry the team on offense. I don’t think that either guy is necessarily a bad defender, as I certainly remember times where they both looked pretty good on defense, but it seems to me like they’re trying to avoid picking up fouls with any regularity. So, between the lack of size and the desire to keep those two out of foul trouble, the Lobos have been playing a lot of zone. Their zone works in doses, but it seems like teams start to figure it out eventually.
• Not to belabor the point, but this was the 11^th time the Lobos have given up 80 or more points and they are 2-9 in those games. That makes them 14-4 in games where they hold their opponents to under 80.
• We’re now in the final week of the conference season, and although SDSU has the title locked up, there is a lot still up in the air. For one, there are four teams that are still in the hunt for second place, with Fresno sitting a game ahead of both Nevada and Boise and two games ahead of UNM. However, although the Lobos are currently in the fifth slot, they’re not completely safe from being overtaken by either UNLV and/or CSU. That means, as far as I can tell the Lobos could end up anywhere from 2^nd to 7^th, depending on how this week shakes out. A single win will ensure a spot in the top five, though, so a win against the Aztecs would have me feeling a lot better about things.

Rooting Interests

As I’ve been doing the past couple of times out, I find myself watching the other Mountain West games and rooting for one of the teams because the outcome helps out the Lobos. So, here are my rooting interests, and rationale for those interests, for the games on Saturday and Sunday:

• Utah State over Air Force: I don’t think that the result of this matters much to the Lobos, so I’m going to go for future entertainment purposes. This outcome would make it likely that the 8-9 game would be between some combination of CSU, USU, and Wyoming, all of which would be fun games to watch and would give SDSU a tough matchup in their first game.
• Nevada over Boise State: There’s still a chance for a 4-way tie for second, which would be fun in its own right, but the most likely scenario for the Lobos to be able to catch both of these teams would be for Nevada to win, as this weekend sees the Wolfpack playing the Lobos while Boise gets to play SJSU. Either team losing would help the Lobos in some capacity, though.
• Colorado State over Fresno State: Fresno is now in good shape to take second place in the conference, but the Lobos can still catch them if they win out and Fresno loses out. CSU losing would still help the Lobos, as that would make it impossible for the Rams to catch them at this point.
• Wyoming over San Jose State: This is Wyoming’s last game of the regular season, which means that it’s Josh Adams’ senior night. He’s a guy that I figured I was going to hate for years, but I’ve definitely come around on him to the point where he is probably my favorite non-Lobo in the conference. I’d be okay seeing him pick up a win in his last game at the Arena Auditorium Stadium Amphitheatre Gymnasium Venue.

Prediction

There’s a decent argument to be made that the loss to the Aztecs out in San Diego is what derailed the team’s season, as they just haven’t been the same since. However, I think that the Lobos feel like they had a win ripped away from them and they’ll be out for revenge. They should bring energy and passion to this one, which is something that has been missing at times over the past couple of weeks. If they do, I think that they will win in a close one, 67-65.

Game Info

What: UNM Lobos (16-13, 9-7) vs. San Diego State Aztecs (21-8, 14-2)

Where: The Pit, Albuquerque, NM

When: Tuesday, March 1, 2016 at 7:30pm MT

Radio: 770 KOB

TV: CBS Sports Network