Given that the football season is about to start, it seems worthwhile to talk about it for a bit. So, here are a few thoughts about the Lobos that I have going into game 1.

Unstoppable Force vs. Very Movable Object

Last season was a study in extremes for the Lobos. For one, their offense was ranked 49^th overall by the FEI Metrics, with an above average efficiency. In fact, the offense was good enough to rank 3^rd in the Mountain West, behind only CSU (25^th overall) and Boise St. (42^nd overall). That’s good! Both of those teams spent time ranked in the top 25.

On the other side, literally and figuratively, was the defense. By the same metrics, the Lobos were ranked 123^rd overall in defensive efficiency, only faring better than Troy, UNLV (making UNM 11^th out of 12 in the MW), Idaho, Georgia State, and Old Dominion. That’s not good! I didn’t even know Old Dominion played football!

As you’d expect, there is a direct relationship between these metrics and team winning percentage. The plot below shows the offensive and defensive FEI ratings for all 128 FBS teams, with the color of each school determined by the school’s winning percentage. As we go left to right on the plot, meaning the offensive FEI increases, we see that the winning percentages tend to increase as well. Likewise, as we go from the top to the bottom, the value of the defensive FEI decreases (meaning it gets better) and the winning percentages tend to increase. We can see that UNM is currently sitting in the “good offense, bad defense” quadrant. In that position, it seems clear that the best path for future success would be to move down the chart, by improving the defense.

Luckily for UNM, the Mountain West wasn’t very good last year as a whole. The plot below shows the offensive and defensive FEI ratings for each MW team. Only Boise State ended up in the “good offense, good defense” quadrant last year while five of the teams ended up in the “bad offense, bad defense” quadrant. Of course, any team could say that if they were better on offense or defense, they would have had a better season, but if the Lobos had even an average MW defensive FEI value of .111 (roughly where San Jose State lies on the y-axis), they would have been in the upper half of the conference and likely would have been bowl-eligible.

Improving the defense is easier said than done, but with a good chunk of the offense returning and (hopefully) improving, the outcome of the season will be determined by the strides taken by the defense.

Run First, Pass Later

It’s no secret that the Lobos’ offense has been composed of a strong running game and an occasional passing game ever since Bob Davie took over the program. Over the past three years, the Lobos have averaged at least 300 rushing yards per game and no more than 114 passing yards per game. It’s become a bit of a running joke that even third and long is a rushing down for the team.

That said, it appears that Davie has his sights on improving the passing game. Last year, Lamar Jordan had the most yards and most pass attempts of any Lobo QB in the Davie era, and if he ends up being the starting QB the whole season, he will likely increase both totals. The only reason that “if” was in the previous sentence is because of Austin Apodaca, the junior college transfer who turned down Vanderbilt (technically an SEC school) to come here. By all accounts, Apodaca is more of a passing threat than Jordan, but less of a rushing threat. His presence on the team, and his being in competition for the starting spot, lead me to believe that Davie might want the offense to be more balanced in the future.

But is that balance a good thing? As mentioned previously, the Lobos managed to have the 49^th highest offensive FEI last season and an above-average offensive FEI the past two seasons. The imbalance is not necessarily a bad recipe for success. The most obvious example is Georgia Tech, who last year rushed for 342 ypg and passed for 134 ypg, yet still had the highest offensive FEI in FBS. In my mind, these types of teams treat the passing game similarly to the way many high-school pitchers’ use their curveballs: it’s only shown off every once in a while to keep the other team honest, but it’s not going to win any games on its own. One would think, however, that if Davie can blend in an effective passing game that doesn’t take away from the effectiveness of the run, the Lobos’ offense could be very dangerous this year.

If You Build It, They Might Come

University Stadium currently seats a little over 39 thousand fans with plans to expand the capacity to over 43 thousand seats. That seems more than a little optimistic right now, as the stadium as seen 30 thousand fans show up to a game a grand total of one time in the past five years. The program hasn’t averaged more than 30 thousand fans since 2005, with attendance averaging under 25 thousand fans for the past five seasons. So what can we expect for attendance this year?

In the plot below, we see the average attendance for each season since 2003. The points are grouped by the head coach who (at the very least) started the season. The shape of each point represents if the season was better, worse, or roughly equal to the season before it. This determination was somewhat subjective, but the main things I looked at were the team’s record and whether or not they made a bowl game. We see a couple of interesting trends, here. First, when the season is better than the previous season, we don’t necessarily see a rise in that season’s attendance. However, we typically see an increase in attendance the next season. We also see a couple of huge drops. The first happened right after the Lobos missed playing in a bowl after three straight years of playing in one. That year was also the first year since Rocky Long’s first season that was worse than the previous year. The second huge drop is the Locksley effect, and perhaps the less said about that the better.

The point is, barring an embarrassing season, on and off the field, I’d expect the attendance to climb a bit. Probably not to the levels that UNM would like though. It seems that the year after a good season, the average attendance over these years has typically risen around 3-6%. That sort of growth would put the average attendance somewhere in the neighborhood of 23 thousand. If this season is more successful than last year, particularly if it ends with a win in a bowl game, the real attendance gains will likely be seen in 2016.

Who Wants Go Bowling?

The ultimate question for this season, in my mind, is will this be the year that UNM gets invited to a bowl game for the first time since 2007? By looking at the schedule, we can get a sense of how realistic that would be. To get a feel for how the Lobos might do in the game, I’ve looked at a few projections and preseason rankings to see if there is any sort of consensus about how good the opponents are relative to UNM.

• Home vs Mississippi Valley State: Should win (UNM much better and at home)
• Home vs Tulsa: Good chance to win (Teams at similar levels, UNM at home)
• Away vs Arizona State: Probably won’t win (ASU is really good, UNM on the road)
• Away vs Wyoming: Good chance to win (UNM probably a little better, but on the road)
• Home vs NMSU: Strong chance to win (UNM better and at home)
• Away vs Nevada: Fair chance to win (UNR probably a little better, UNM on the road)
• Home vs Hawaii: Good chance to win (Teams at similar levels, UNM at home)
• Away vs San Jose State: Fair chance to win (Teams at similar levels, UNM on the road)
• Home vs Utah State: Fair chance to win (USU is better, but UNM is at home)
• Away vs Boise State: Small chance to win (Boise is much better, UNM on the road)
• Home vs Colorado State: Fair chance to win (CSU is better, but UNM is at home)
• Home vs Air Force Academy: Good chance to win (AFA probably a little better, UNM at home)

From that, my feeling is that six or seven wins seems very possible this season. In fact, four or fewer wins would be somewhat of a disappointment this season. It also seems like that last game against Air Force could be the deciding game as to whether or not the Lobos will be bowl eligible. The optimist in me says that we’ll be watching this team past November. I’m not even going to bother listening to the pessimist.