After blasting Mississippi Valley State 66-0 last weekend, the Lobos seem ready to face their first real challenge in Tulsa. By all accounts, this might be the game that warrants a third digit on the scoreboard…
So who are we playing?
The Tulsa Golden Hurricane are coming off a thrilling 47-44 overtime victory over Florida Atlantic, in which Tulsa kicked a field goal as time expired to send the game to overtime, ultimately scoring a touchdown to top FAU’s overtime field goal. This win was encouraging to Tulsa fans, who had watched the Golden Hurricane post back-to-back losing seasons, getting their coach fired in the process. The new coach, Phillip Montgomery, made the trek north to Tulsa from Baylor, where he had spent nine seasons acting as the QB coach and at least sharing offensive coordinator duties. It should be no surprise, then, that Tulsa is now trying to mold their offense in Baylor’s image.
That was certainly apparent last weekend, where Tulsa played Baylor-fast, scoring 41 points in regulation while only having the ball for 23 minutes. Their offense is designed to create explosive plays, which is evident in their passing stats. They completed 21 passes, out of an attempted 35, for 424 yards. That means that they averaged 12.1 yards per attempt and 20.2 yards per completion. Their running game, which totaled a solid 194 yards on 51 carries for a 3.8 yards per rush average, seems downright pedestrian in comparison. The real weakness in their offense last week was their turnovers. They had two interceptions and lost two fumbles last week against a team that averaged 1.3 takeaways a game last season. If they want to replicate Baylor, that’s something they’re going to have to shore up.
That’s not the only thing they’re going to have to shore up, though. Their defense was on the same level as UNM’s last year (ranked 122 in DFEI compared to UNM’s 123) and last week didn’t give a lot of evidence that things have changed. They gave up 300 yards rushing and 263 yards passing to an FAU team that hasn’t been known for its offense in recent years (ranked 99th in the FBS in offensive FEI in 2014, 94th in 2013, and 107th in 2012). This team has all the makings of a good offense/bad defense type of season, which will at least seem familiar here in New Mexico.
Team Comparison
Because it’s early in the season, and UNM hasn’t even played an FBS team yet, it doesn’t seem particularly useful to compare the season to date stats. So for now, we’ll take a look back at where the teams stood last year. In the chart below, which shows the same offensive and defensive FEI data from our season preview, we can see how both UNM and Tulsa performed last year.
Tulsa fell into that “bad offense/bad defense” quadrant last year, which does a good job explaining their 2-10 season record. Because the gains seem to have come on offense, this season will likely see them move to the right on that chart. In fact, moving close to where UNM is might be a reasonable expectation for this team. That would give us two good offense/bad defense teams showing up to University Stadium this weekend. If that’s the case, given both teams desire to play fast, we’re likely to see a lot of possessions and a lot of points scored on Saturday.
What’s going on at quarterback? (Take 2)
Even though we saw both Lamar Jordan and Austin Apodaca get reps behind center last week, it looked to me as though Jordan is the clear starting QB. Davie appears to have more confidence in Jordan right now and seems willing to trust him to run the entire offense. That said, based on some of his comments this week, he might still be planning on finding some playing time for Apodaca as well. Barring another blowout, which seems unlikely, this week should answer the question of how the snaps will be shared more definitively.
All that said, from some of the things that I’ve read about Tulsa, their passing defense is a little behind their rushing defense, so I wouldn’t be surprised if we see more pass attempts this week. Especially if the Lobos have some early success in the air. If Jordan can prove that he can run that part of the offense, there won’t be many questions about who QB1 is for the time being.
Can we stop them?
With UNM’s good offensive season last year and Tulsa hiring Baylor’s offensive coordinator to be their head coach, most of the attention going into this game is on how many points are going to be scored this weekend. I do think, however, that this game is a great opportunity for the defense to show that they are a deeper, more athletic, and generally better unit than they were last year. MVSU didn’t really pose too much of a threat, but shutting out any team is to be commended. Tulsa does pose a threat, however, and if the Lobo defense can slow them down, that will be a really good sign for this season’s success.
The defensive backs will be in the spotlight this game, with Tulsa trying to spread the defense out and trying to exploit their size at receiver, so good games from them will go a long way towards stopping Tulsa’s offense. They’ll hopefully get some help from the pass rush, which I thought had a good game last week. If they can get consistent pressure on Tulsa’s quarterback, I wouldn’t be surprised to see several opportunities for takeaways. If the defense can force Tulsa into playing sloppily, I feel pretty good about our chances to win. If they allow Tulsa to play the way they want to, my guess is that this might be one of those games where the last team with the ball is going to go home with the win.
Prediction
UNM wins 56-48 in a shootout.
What: University of Tulsa (1-0) at the University of New Mexico (1-0)
Where: University Stadium, Albuquerque, NM
When: 6pm MT
Where to Watch: ESPN3
How to Listen: 770 KOB