After a tough loss to a good Arizona State team, the Lobos head up to Laramie, WY to take on the Wyoming Cowboys in a must-win game. This is the part of the schedule that could either get UNM back on track in their quest for a bowl game, or dash those hopes completely.
So who are we playing?
Last season, after starting the season out strong with victories over Air Force and Florida Atlantic, Wyoming cratered, winning only one of their final eight games of the season. One of those games was a loss at UNM in the final game of the season. It was the first season for the Cowboys under Coach Craig Bohl, so traditional thinking would lead one to believe that the team would be stronger this season. However, last year’s team was actually full of seniors, which means that most of the players they relied on to get to that four win mark have since graduated. That leaves this program as a young, rebuilding team who have stumbled a bit out of the gate.
In their first three games, Wyoming has yet to record a win, and that includes a 24-13 loss at home to FCS North Dakota. They also lost by multiple scores to a bad Eastern Michigan team and a below-average Washington State team. In short, this was not the start that they were hoping for. They are likely looking at this game with UNM as an opportunity for their first victory, as if they lose this game, it wouldn’t be surprising for them to go winless into their last game, a likely slap-fight with UNLV. I fully expect them to come out swinging, hoping to knock the Lobos out early.
And their offense does have the potential to land a few blows. Although they lost last year’s starting quarterback, several offensive linemen, and their top two receivers, they still return a decent running attack and now feature a quarterback who transferred from a Big 10 school. That quarterback, Indiana-transfer Cameron Coffman, has had a good start to the season, completing 60.3% of his passes and has four touchdowns on the year compared to just one interception. His top targets so far have been Tanner Gentry and Jake Maulhardt, who have basically been the main threats at wide receiver. Coffman will also occasionally find his running backs or tight end as well. Wyoming’s running game returns Brian Hill and Shaun Wick from last season’s team. Some Lobo fans may remember Hill from his big game against UNM last year, in which he gained 157 yards and a touchdown on 28 carries. Hill also became the primary option at running back about halfway through last season and it appears that currently remains the case. Wick, on the other hand, has been less effective this year than the past two years, after season his carries drop with the rise of Hill, so it will be interesting to see if he can return to his previous levels of production or not.
One thing that has been surprising about their offense is how schizophrenic it has been game-to-game. In their first game, against North Dakota, they focused almost entirely on passing, with 39 passing attempts for 289 yards compared to 19 rushes for 41. In their second game, against Eastern Michigan, they did the opposite, having 17 pass attempts for 32 yards and 58(!!) rushing attempts for 430 yards. Then, in their most recent game, against Washington State, they showed a balanced attack, with 36 passes for 296 yards and 40 rushes for 113 yards. To me, this seems like a team who is willing to take whatever the defense is giving them (or is throwing stuff at the wall each game to see what sticks), so if I were to guess, I wouldn’t be surprised to see more passes on Saturday than rushes.
The defense, on the other hand, has struggled to begin this season. That is likely due to the fact that they lost three players from their offensive line rotation, five linebackers, and six defensive backs. Because of that, by advanced metrics they’ve been one of the worst defensive teams this season. Their top tacklers so far have been freshman safety Andrew Wingard and junior linebacker Lucas Wacha, so look to hear their names regularly. However, their player who might be having the best defensive season is senior defensive lineman Eddie Yarbough, who already has 3 sacks on the season. This team also doesn’t appear to have much depth on defense, so if any injuries occur, their defense could get even worse quickly. With any luck, this will be a game where the Lobo offense starts to click again.
Team Comparison
Because it’s early in the season, the offensive and defensive FEI ratings haven’t been updated (they won’t until around week 7). So for now, we’ll take a look back at where the teams stood last year. In the chart below, which shows the same offensive and defensive FEI data from our season preview, we can see how both UNM and Wyoming performed last year.
Last year, Wyoming was a little below average offensively (ranked 76th overall) and towards the bottom defensively (ranked 102nd overall), which corresponded well with their 4-8 record. Between losing their starting QB, their top two receivers, a good chunk of their offensive line, and most of their starting defense, it wouldn’t be shocking to see both their offensive and defensive efficiencies decline this season. And although it is early, there are some indications that is the case.
As opposed to last week, where we looked at the offensive and defensive production in terms of yards per game, this week we’ll instead look at the production by yards per attempt. The first two plots show the breakdowns of yards gained by both teams and the yards allowed by both teams. The offensive production of the two teams is remarkably similar, with UNM being slightly better at rushing and Wyoming being slightly better passing. The end result, in terms of yard per game, is identical. On defense, however, is where we see the difference between the two teams. Although both teams allow about the same amount of passing yards per attempt, UNM allows 1.3 yards per attempt fewer than Wyoming when the opponent is rushing the ball. Because of this difference, the Lobos allow a yard fewer per play than Wyoming does, which certainly adds up over the course of a game.
In the following plot, we see the difference between the teams’ points scored and points allowed. UNM still looks good, thanks to the MVSU game, but it’s worth keeping in mind that even when you include that game, UNM has had a more difficult schedule than Wyoming so far this season. So, the differences between their scoring distributions is pretty stark, and I think is another sign that UNM is a better team.
No really, what’s going on at quarterback?
I thought that I was going to be able to retire this section, after it appeared to me as though Lamar Jordan has secured the primary quarterback job, but last week’s game might have provided more questions than it did answers. For one, Davie substituted Austin Apodoca in on only the third possession for the Lobos, which might have indicated that Davie thought his style of play gave the Lobos a better chance against the Sun Devils, which made me wonder why he didn’t just start. To make matters more confusing, Jordan came back in to start the second half, showing that Apodaca hadn’t just passed him on the depth chart. Finally, to pile on to my confusion, Apodaca took over at the end of the third quarter and then both quarterbacks took snaps in the second half. In Davie’s defense, neither quarterback played particularly well. However, I can’t imagine either player was able to feel like he was able to get into the flow of the game with all of the substitutions.
I know that at this point, arguments can be made for either quarterback to be the primary quarterback, but that’s mostly because neither player has played well enough to separate himself from the other. Although I’d like to say that Davie should just pick a guy and stick with him starting this week, with Wyoming’s defense it might actually make some sense for both guys to get some snaps to see if someone takes the lead. It would certainly be better for the season if one of them did.
Who is going to step up at wide receiver?
The following is a list of UNM players who have caught more than 5 passes this season: Dameon Gamblin. That’s it. Gamblin has proven to be a reliable option for UNM’s quarterbacks to target, catching 15 passes so far this season while also coming down with at least three receptions each game. No other player has caught more than two passes in any game this year. If the passing game is actually going to develop, that is going to have to change, as the QB’s need to have several options that they can trust. Carlos Wiggins seems like he might be a good option, based on his explosiveness, but he is likely better suited for quick slants and screens because of his size. Instead, I’m looking at Delane Hart-Johnson to be the guy who steps up and becomes a threat to the opposing defenses. He has shown a couple of flashes of ability and he certainly has the size for it, so hopefully we’ll see him make some plays soon.
Can we play like the better team?
By just about every metric out there, UNM is a better team than Wyoming and if they play that attitude, I think they’ll come home with a victory. However, it is really easy to play down to the level of your opponent if you don’t stay focused. I like to think that the Lobos know the importance of this game. If they win, they are still in the hunt for bowl eligibility and will bring some momentum and excitement back to Albuquerque. If they lose, the path to bowl eligibility effectively disappears and anyone who had started paying the team attention this season will likely go look up when the basketball season starts.
Prediction
The line for this game has UNM by 3, which feels a little low to me. My guess is that the Lobos win 31-21.
What: The University of New Mexico (1-2) at University of Wyoming (0-3)
Where: War Memorial Stadium, Laramie, WY
When: Saturday, September 26 at 1pm MT
Where to Watch: Root Sports
How to Listen: 770 KOB