The win on Saturday against Wyoming was not only a good start to the conference season, it kept UNM’s bowl aspirations alive. With a loss, the Lobos would have needed an upset or two to get back to where that goal was within reach and it would have been hard to muster the confidence that such an upset was possible. Luckily, the Lobos played well and came away with the victory, allowing us to keep an eye on their bowl eligibility. With two wins down, they’re a third of the way there, needing to go at least 4-4 over the rest of the season.
Like last week, below is the team’s remaining schedule. It was generally a good week for the future opponents, with the teams that played going 4-2 on the weekend, so even with the UNM win, the win probabilities based on ESPN’s FPI didn’t change much. Based on this, it appears that the most likely path for the Lobos to get to six wins is to win four out of their five games at home, as their road games are currently projected to be more difficult, but out of the remaining games, only the Boise State game would really register as “very unlikely to win”. (For reference, UNM’s FEI rank is currently 107)
| Date | Team | Current Record (MWC) | Current Overall FEI Rank | Current Estimated Win Probability (FPI) |
| October 3 | vs. New Mexico State | 0-4 | 120 | 72.9% |
| October 10 | @ Nevada | 2-2 (0-0) | 77 | 31.5% |
| October 17 | vs. Hawaii | 2-2 (0-0) | 111 | 62.5% |
| October 24 | @ San José State | 2-2 (1-1) | 100 | 24.3% |
| November 7 | vs. Utah State | 1-2 (0-0) | 58 | 36.7% |
| November 14 | @ Boise State | 3-1 (0-0) | 23 | 3.5% |
| November 21 | vs. Colorado State | 2-2 (0-0) | 68 | 47.4% |
| November 28 | vs. Air Force | 2-1 (1-0) | 82 | 26.4% |
As we’ve been doing this whole season, based on these win probabilities, we can simulate seasons to determine the probability that UNM makes a bowl game (explanation here). The distribution of the simulated win totals can be found in the plot below.
The probability of a bowl game, shown by the red bars, is now sitting at 35.2%, compared to last week’s probability of 32.5%. Like last week, the change is again slight because the outcome was basically what was expected. We won’t see huge changes until the Lobos either lose a game that they are expected to win or win a game that they are expected to lose (for example, a loss against NMSU or a win against Nevada). It’s also worth noting that right now the mean number of wins across the simulations is 5.05, which while being an improvement from last year, would still leave them short of being bowl eligible.
This next week will be key, as a loss against NMSU would make the path to bowl eligibility very difficult, just like a loss to Wyoming would have. However, a win would put the Lobos needing just three wins out of their remaining seven games, which seems like a realistic goal. Here’s hoping that’s the case.