After an encouraging weekend up in Wyoming, the Lobos (2-2) head home to face their in-state rivals, New Mexico State University (0-3). Aside from the three year stretch 2009-2011 (hmm… I wonder what was going on with the team then?), the Lobos have been dominating the Rio Grande Rivalry in recent years and look to continue that dominance on Saturday.
So who are we playing?
While we might think that UNM has had a rough go of it recently, NMSU makes the Lobos’ shortcomings pale in comparison. The Aggies haven’t had a winning season since 2002, when they went 7-5 for what is still their program’s 13th best season win percentage and their best since 1967. Their last bowl appearance was in 1960, where they beat Utah State in the Sun Bowl. Based on the start of this season, neither of those streaks seem likely to end this year. The Aggies have played three games so far and have lost all of them, including a 61-13 drumming at the hands of Florida. On the upside, their other two games were much closer affairs, with a two point loss to Georgia State and a three point loss in overtime to UTEP. On the downside, those teams are some of the worst in the FBS and the losses happened in Las Cruces.
A lot of this is because their coach, Doug Martin, is trying to completely rebuild the program from scratch. Unlike, say, the way Coach Davie has been rebuilding by shaping the team around the available talent, Martin seems to be trying to set a system and then find players to fit into it. That has been slow-going so far, as recruiting hasn’t really picked up yet and his most experienced recruits are only juniors right now. If he gets the team he wants, it will likely be an explosive spread offense and an aggressive, strong, blitzing defense. There are signs that the offense is coming around, but, even more so than the Lobos, the defense is still a work in progress.
On offense, the Aggies are led by QB Tyler Rogers and RB Larry Rose. Although Rogers hasn’t been nearly as accurate this season in terms of completion percentage, but he has greatly improved his TD to INT ratio, going from 19:23 last season to 7:2 so far this season. He has also increased his yards per attempt, from 6.4 to 7.8. So, in general, he has taken some good strides in his junior year. Luckily for the Lobos, he doesn’t have the sort of large targets to throw to that have given the Lobos fits in previous games. His primary targets have been 6-0 Teldrick Morgan and 5-9 Tyrian Taylor. It seems unlikely that they’ll be able to bully the Lobos on the edges the way that Tulsa and ASU did. Rose, who was their leading rusher last season as well, has been fairly effective on the ground, gaining 6.6 yards per carry and scoring 3 touchdowns. However, most of that comes from his big game against UTEP, in which he ran 20 times for 196 yards and a touchdown. He was held mostly in check the previous two games. Still, stopping him will be a primary focus of the defense.
For the Aggies on the defensive end, it’s been a bit of a mess. They’ve given up at least 270 yards passing and 210 yards rushing each game and they haven’t kept a team below 540 yards all season. They also haven’t been particularly effective getting to the quarterback, recording only two sacks so far this season. If there is one thing that they seem to be doing fairly well at is causing turnovers, as they have had six takeaways in the three games. Their top-performing defensive player so far has been safety Jaden Wright, who has recorded 33 tackles, an interception, and a forced fumble. No one else really stands out to me at this point. I think that it’s fair to say that the expectation is that the Lobos should be able to rack up a lot of yards against this defense.
Team Comparison
Because it’s early in the season, the offensive and defensive FEI ratings haven’t been updated (they won’t until around week 7). So for now, we’ll take a look back at where the teams stood last year. In the chart below, which shows the same offensive and defensive FEI data from our season preview, we can see how both UNM and NMSU performed last year.
Last year, NMSU was below average offensively (ranked 96th overall) and towards the bottom defensively (ranked 115nd overall), which accounts for their 2-10 record. Because the team is young and, in theory, maturing, both the offense and defense should be better this year. It’s still up in the air whether or not that’s the case, though.
Like last week, we’ll be comparing the production of each team by yards per attempt. The first two plots show the breakdowns of yards gained by both teams and the yards allowed by both teams. From the first plot, we see that NMSU is a fairly comparable offensive team to UNM in terms of results, actually outgaining the Lobos 6.7 ypa to 6.0 ypa. The way they go about getting this production is very different, however, as the Aggies pass on 58% of their plays while the Lobos do so on only 28% of theirs. The defenses, on the other hand, are where the teams really separate from each other. First off, it’s clear that neither team has been particularly good at stopping the pass, but UNM has actually been pretty effective against the run, only allowing 3.0 ypa. That’s compared to the 5.3 ypa NMSU has been allowing. Because they haven’t been good at stopping either the run or the pass, NMSU has given up a whopping 7 yards per offensive play. In fact, that is the 7th worst such average in all of the FBS.
In the following plot, we see the difference between the teams’ points scored and points allowed. As we can see, UNM looks pretty good still with a +8.3 ppg scoring differential (thanks MVSU!). NMSU, however, really looks like they’re right now, having a -17.6 scoring differential. Almost all of that come from when they were destroyed by Florida, though, as their other games have each been decided by less than a field goal. Unfortunately for them, after their visit to Albuquerque, the Aggies head to #3-ranked Ole Miss, so their scoring differential might not look any better in a couple of weeks…
Lamar Jordan: QB1
Finally, it appears that we have an answer as to what is going on at quarterback: Lamar Jordan is the guy. After perhaps his best performance for the Lobos last week, he separated himself from Austin Apodaca for the position and will likely see the majority of the snaps this weekend. In reality, this feels like the obvious outcome. With the way the team is currently built, Jordan should have more success running the team, as Apodaca is better suited to a team built to pass, which the Lobos aren’t right now. Maybe next year, if there is a renewed focus on incorporating a passing game, Apodaca will have the weapons available to run an effective offense. I’m just not sure that it’s there for him right now.
Hit the Ground Running
After at least making an attempt to become a balanced offense, the Lobos ironically threw their passing game out of the window last week, rushing 47 times to only 8 pass attempts. The result, of course, was the best offensive game they’ve had against an FBS team. If Davie is serious about Jordan being the guy at QB, then any passing plays are either going to be out of the running game or called out of necessity. That isn’t necessarily a bad thing, though, as that was the sort of offense the team ran last year and it resulted in a top-50 offense by FEI. It doesn’t feel like the pieces are quite there yet to really make the strides necessary to having a balanced attack, so I’m on board with the idea.
Defensive Proving Grounds
The two teams come into this game with offenses that can put up points, so I don’t think that the Lobos can simply count on out-gunning the Aggies. Instead, this game will likely be decided by UNM’s defense. If they play well, as they did last week against Wyoming, I don’t see the Lobos having much difficulty winning this game, as the offense should be able to score relatively easily against the weak NMSU defense. If this turns into a shootout, who knows where the cards will land.
Prediction
The line for this game has UNM by 12.5, which actually sounds about right to me. My guess is that the Lobos win 44-30.
What: The University of New Mexico (2-2) vs New Mexico State University (0-3)
Where: University Stadium, Albuquerque, NM
When: Saturday, October 3 at 6pm MT
Where to Watch: Root Sports
How to Listen: 770 KOB