Beating the Aggies is always sweet but this one might actually be a little bit sweeter. Not only did they mount a great comeback through an effective offense and a stifling defense in the second half, they picked up their third win, leaving them to only need to find three wins in their remaining seven games.
As before, below is the team’s remaining schedule and some quick information about each match-up. It was a rough week for the team’s future opponents, as they combined to go 2-5 on the week, dropping a lot of their rankings (for reference, UNM’s FEI ranking is currently 107). This, combined with the UNM win, helped the Lobos’ estimated win probability in most of their games (probabilities based on ESPN’s FPI). Again, the only game that the Lobos are currently major underdogs is the game up at Boise. But, if they take care of business in their other games, they won’t be desperate for an upset in that game to keep their season alive.
| Date | Team | Current Record (MWC) | Current Overall FEI Rank | Current Estimated Win Probability (FPI) |
| October 10 | @ Nevada | 2-3 (0-1) | 84 | 38.2% |
| October 17 | vs. Hawaii | 2-3 (0-1) | 116 | 73.7% |
| October 24 | @ San José State | 2-3 (1-1) | 102 | 25.7% |
| November 7 | vs. Utah State | 2-2 (1-0) | 55 | 34.7% |
| November 14 | @ Boise State | 4-1 (1-0) | 26 | 2.6% |
| November 21 | vs. Colorado State | 2-3 (0-1) | 74 | 50.3% |
| November 28 | vs. Air Force | 2-2 (1-0) | 91 | 34.1% |
As we’ve been doing this whole season, based on these win probabilities, we can simulate seasons to determine the probability that UNM makes a bowl game (explanation here). The distribution of the simulated win totals can be found in the plot below.
The probability of a bowl game, shown by the red bars, is now sitting at 52.2%, compared to last week’s probability of 35.2%. This has been the biggest jump in their estimated probability of becoming bowl eligible and marks the first time all season that probability has been over 50%. The average number of wins across the simulations is 5.59, which is definitely inching closer to bowl eligibility.
A win this next week against Nevada will really solidify the team’s chances to becoming bowl eligible. It will be a tough game, but the Lobos should go in there with some confidence from the last couple of weeks.