The Lobos take to the road again this weekend for a lupine battle, as they head to Reno to take on Nevada in a conference match-up. A win on Saturday would put UNM just two wins away from bowl eligibility and mark the first time that the Lobos have had a three-game winning streak since 2007. Nevada is coming off a bad home loss against rival UNLV, so the Lobos should expect to be facing a slightly desperate, very motivated team.
So who are we playing?
Nevada came into this season with high expectations and a several question marks. After a 4-8 season in 2013, Nevada bounced back in 2014 to go 7-5 in the regular season and making the New Orleans Bowl. The hope was that they would be able to build on that success and make another bowl game this season. The main question was whether or not they would be able to recover from losing several key pieces of last year’s squad. So far, it seems like that question either remains unanswered or simply a no. The biggest evidence that this team hasn’t recovered from the personnel losses came last week, when they lost at home to a bad UNLV team. When they look at their schedule, though, the worst is behind them and I’m sure that they view this game as an opportunity to get their season back on track.
Unsurprisingly, given that they invented it, Nevada runs their offense mostly out of the pistol formation. In the past, their offense has relied on a dual-threat quarterback, such as Colin Kaepernick, to be effective. Last season, that role was filled by senior Cody Fajardo, who passed for almost 2500 yards and ran for over 1000 yards. His replacement this year, Tyler Stewart, hasn’t been nearly as effective as of yet. The main issue with him so far is that he hasn’t done much on the ground, only gaining 138 yards on 42 carries thus far. For this team to get to where it wants to be, he is going to have to become the running threat that the offense requires.
Stewart does have several weapons available to him, though. Running backs Don Jackson and James Butler have both been dangerous on the ground, averaging 5.0 and 6.5 yards per carry respectively. They were both shut down last week against UNLV, which goes a long way towards explaining how the Rebels came out with the victory and provides a blueprint for the Lobos this week. For their receivers, their primary targets have been 5’11” Jerico Richardson and 6’5” Hasaan Henderson. Henerson seems to be the sort of receiver that has given the Lobo defense issues so far this season, so it will be interesting to see how they adjust to him.
On defense, Nevada is led by defensive linemen Lenny Jones and Ian Seau, who have combined for 7 sacks on the season. Given the way the Lobos have been focusing on running the ball recently, I don’t know how much damage those two will cause. Instead, I’d expect to see more out of linebacker Matthew Lyons and defensive back Asauni Rufus, who are tied for the team lead with 46 tackles. This defense is fairly young and inexperienced, so the Lobos might be able to take advantage of that with their triple option, which requires a disciplined defense to be stopped.
Team Comparison
Because it’s early in the season, the offensive and defensive FEI ratings haven’t been updated (they won’t until around week 7). So for now, we’ll take a look back at where the teams stood last year. In the chart below, which shows the same offensive and defensive FEI data from our season preview, we can see how both UNM and Nevada performed last year.
Last year, Nevada was slightly above average offensively (58th overall) and slightly below average defensively (84th overall), which is right in line with them going 7-6 for the year. Because of their losses offensively, it appears as though their offense has slipped this season, although it’s hard to say how far at this point. The defense has also shown some signs of regression, so it seems likely that Nevada is one of those “bad offense/bad defense” teams this season.
As we have been doing recently, we’ll be comparing the production of each team by yards per attempt. The first two plots show the breakdowns of yards gained by both teams and the yards allowed by both teams. In the first plot, we see that UNM has been more productive on offense on a yards per attempt basis compared to Nevada. Nevada also operates a run-heavy offense, although not nearly as extreme as UNM, so shutting that down with be a primary concern for the UNM defense. In the second plot, we see that both teams struggle more against the pass than the run, with Nevada doing better against the pass and UNM doing better against the run. Based on the type of offenses that we’ll see on Saturday, that could bode well for the Lobos.
In the following plot, we see the difference between the teams’ points scored and points allowed. As we can see, UNM is still running a nice point differential, outscoring their opponents by 8.4 points per game. Nevada, on the other hand, currently has a negative point differential, being outscored by 6 points a game. A large reason for that is their two big losses to top-25 teams, but their wins haven’t been particularly impressive so far. They do have a string of winnable games coming up, so they’ll have their chances to improve that stat. Given their loss at home to UNLV, there’s certainly no guarantee that will happen.
Ground Jordan
Now that Lamar Jordan has seemingly solidified his position as the main quarterback for the Lobos, we’ve been given a chance to see his complete game. Perhaps unsurprisingly, he’s been most impressive when he’s running the triple option. The mere threat of him taking the ball to the edge seems to be opening up the running game more, making the dive that much more effective for both Jhurell Pressley and Teriyon Gipson. He still hasn’t quite shined throwing the ball, although it is difficult to say how much of that is on him. Against the Aggies, because the team was behind for so much of the game, Jordan ended up passing more than what we’d like to see and his stats weren’t great. Optimally, the Lobos get ahead early, making the passing game more of a sneak attack than a featured part of the offense.
Which Defense Will Show?
Last week, the Lobo defense had huge lapses, allowing for the Aggies to score three touchdowns on long runs, and showed uncharacteristic signs of frustration, such as when Kimmie Carson threw a player through an advertisement several yards out of bounds. The defense also was stifling, shutting down any semblance of an Aggie offense, which allowed the Lobos to make their great comeback to win the game. In a single game, we might have seen the worst half the defense has played this season and the best half they have played this season. I’d like to think that the second-half performance is closer to the unit’s true ability, but the jury is certainly still out. Nevada seems like the sort of offense that the defense can have some success against, so if that second-half squad is the one who makes the trip to Reno, things could go very well for the Lobos.
Kickin’ it Like it’s 2014
In news that is super unexciting but still super important, Coach Davie announced that we’ll see a different kicker this weekend. Punter Zach Rogers, who was both the kicker and the punter last season, will be pressed into double duty again, replacing Jason Sanders. Sanders has a really strong leg, but hasn’t been particularly accurate, even missing a 29 yarder last weekend. I still think that Sanders could end up being a great kicker, but until he figures these accuracy issues out, it is probably safer to go with Rogers. Rogers didn’t have many chances last season, only going 5/8, but he was 4/5 on attempts less than 40 yards. Hopefully he can be reliable enough to shore up that position.
Prediction
The line for this game has Nevada by 4.5, which seems fair. However, because I am a gigantic homer, I’m going to pick the Lobos to win 30-24.
What: The University of New Mexico (3-2) at University of Nevada-Reno (2-3)
Where: Mackay Stadium, Reno, NV
When: Saturday, October 10 at 5pm MT
Where to Watch: Mountain West Network/Campus Insiders
How to Listen: 770 KKOB