After a tough loss on the road against nationally-ranked Old Dominion, the Lobos return to Albuquerque to take on a solid Valparaiso team from the Horizon League. This is a very important match for the Lobos to rebound after a 0-3-0 start to the Conference USA schedule. The Lobos have seemingly lost all of their momentum built during the non-conference slate and must pick up results in almost all their remaining matches to have a good chance of making the NCAA Tournament. While this is a tough task, the Lobos still have talent. They need to come together as a unit and find a way to come out of this match with the victory. They also have to find a way to play better in the first half so they don’t keep on putting pressure on themselves to come from behind in the second half.
Quick Match Facts
Lobos:
- Outscoring opponents 14 to 11
- Outscored 6 to 3 in the first half
- Outscoring opponents 11 to 5 in the second half
- Outshooting opponents 149 to 146, an average of .2 more shot per match
- Have a 59 to 56 advantage on corner kicks
- Five Lobos have scored a goal; only two have scored more than one goal
- Eight Lobos have at least one assist
Valparaiso:
- Outscoring opponents 12 to 9
- Outscored 4 to 3 in the first half
- Outscoring opponents 9 to 5 in the second half
- Outshooting opponents 134 to 114, an average of 1.8 more shots per match
- Even on corner kicks at 57 apiece
- Six players have scored goals, three players have multiple goals
Players to Watch
Lobos:
For the Lobos, they need to get Chris Wehan going again. If the can get Wehan involved in dangerous areas of the attack and get him a goal in action, it will help the Lobos attack get back on track. Look for the Lobos to try to find Wehan early and often to put pressure on the Valparaiso backline. The other attacking players for the Lobos need to help Wehan in the attack and give him space to operate. If the Lobos are able to do this, look for a Lobos victory.
Valparaiso:
The key player for Valparaiso is junior forward from Albuquerque Isaiah Madrid, who played for Hope Christian, St. Pius and Eldorado during his high school career. Madrid is the player to watch not only because he is a local, but also because he is Valparaiso’s leading goal scorer with five goals on the season. Madrid is a talented forward that the Lobo backline will need to keep an eye on where he is at all times. If the Lobos are able to do this, they should have a good game with out much challenge from the Valparaiso attack. If not, it could be a long night for the Lobos. Valparaiso has two more Albuquerque natives in Deven Mason (Eldorado) and Jacob Gandarilla (born in Albuquerque). All three New Mexicans are key parts of the Valparaiso team and will be very important if the want to win this match.
Prediction
This will be an interesting match between two solid teams, particularly because both teams have had difficulty scoring in the first half all season (only three first half goals for each team), so both teams will be hoping to get off to a quicker start than they have been. This match is very important for the Lobos to find a way to score in the first half to get a lead so they can continue the pressure in the second half instead of having to play from behind. I would put the odds on the Lobos winning this match are at 50% and coming out of the match with at least a draw at 80%. I think this will be the match that turns the Lobos season back around and will give them confidence going into the rest of the Conference USA schedule. I predict a 2-1 Lobos win in regulation.
Game Info
What: New Mexico (6-5-1) vs. Valparaiso (6-3-2)
Where: UNM Soccer Complex, Albuquerque, NM
When: October 14th at 7 PM MT
Stream: LoboTV