Just when it looked like the Lobos were going to have their bowl dreams shattered by Hawaii, a series of unexpected events allowed the Lobos to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat and go on dreaming just a little longer. With that victory, the Lobos now are just two wins away from becoming bowl eligible with five games remaining. As Rick Wright pointed out yesterday, we’ve seen this exact situation a couple of years ago and the Lobos weren’t able to finish the season off. This week gives the team their first opportunity to prove that history won’t be repeated this year.
As before, below is the team’s remaining schedule and some quick information about each match-up. Aside from San José State, who got beat at home by SDSU 30-7, the other four future opponents all played each other, giving the future opponents a combined 2-3 record this past week. With Utah State beating Boise State, the metrics have started to view Utah State as an even more formidable opponent than Boise State, now giving the Lobos two games where they will likely be heavy underdogs. The other three games all seem fairly winnable though, starting with a game against a reeling SJSU team.
| Date | Team | Current Record (MWC) | Current Overall FEI Rank | Current Estimated Win Probability (FPI) |
| October 24 | @ San José State | 3-4 (2-2) | 115 | 27.0% |
| November 7 | vs. Utah State | 4-2 (3-0) | 26 | 14.2% |
| November 14 | @ Boise State | 5-2 (2-1) | 31 | 2.3% |
| November 21 | vs. Colorado State | 3-4 (1-2) | 82 | 41.9% |
| November 28 | vs. Air Force | 3-3 (2-1) | 96 | 34.5% |
As we’ve been doing this whole season, based on these win probabilities, we can simulate seasons to determine the probability that UNM makes a bowl game (explanation here). The distribution of the simulated win totals can be found in the plot below.
The probability of a bowl game, shown by the red bars, is now sitting at 34.7%, compared to last week’s probability of 29.6%. This puts them back up to a slightly better than a one-in-three chance of becoming bowl eligible, which feels pretty good for this team to be at seven games through the season. The average number of wins across the simulations is 5.20, which is in line with what we see from the plot. In fact, based on these simulations, the probability of the team ending up with five wins is 42.1%.
This weekend’s game against San José State presents a big opportunity for the Lobos. The Spartans haven’t really played all that well recently, leaving the door open for the Lobos to go there and come out with a win. If they do get that win, they’ll be sitting at five wins with four games to go, including three home games. Those bowl dreams would start to feel a lot more real at that point.