The Lobos head up I-25 this weekend to take on Colorado College and Air Force in Colorado Springs. The Lobos play Air Force on Sunday, so the focus today is the match between the 3rd place Lobos and the 4th place Tigers. If you’re surprised by this being a conference matchup, remember that although Colorado College is a D-III college, they are a D-I women’s soccer program, which allows them to be an affiliate member of the Mountain West Conference and allows the conference to have 12 teams playing women’s soccer. Both the Tigers and the Lobos are looking to secure their spot in the Mountain West Championship, which the top six teams qualify for, and this match will likely decide which of these teams ends up with a better seed in the tournament. It will be interesting to see what the field conditions will be like this afternoon after the all the rain the last two days. The Lobos will need to be careful with every pass they make and be extra careful with every clearance on the back line. I view these teams as being very even, so this match truly can go either way.
Things to Look For:
LOBOS:
- Are even in goals this season at 19 to 19
- Are being outscored 11 to 9 in the first half while outscoring opponents 10 to 8 in the second half
- Outshooting opponents 205 to 182, which is an average of 1.6 more shots per match
- Nine Lobos have scored a goal; five have scored multiple goals this season
- Six different Lobos scored the six Lobos goals last weekend
- Lobos are 3-0-1 in conference road matches this season
TIGERS:
- Have been outscored this season 24 to 17
- Have been even in goals in the first half 8 to 8 while being outscored by opponents 16 to 9 in the second half
- Being out shot by opponents 226 to 192, which is an average of 2 shots less shots per match
- Six Tigers have scored a goal this season; three Tigers have scored multiple goals
- Tigers are 4-7-0 at home this season and 2-2-0 in conference home matches
Players to Watch:
LOBOS:
The Lobo that I will be watching this match is Lindsey Guice, who has scored 3 goals and has 3 assists this season for the Lobos. Guice needs to be a key figure in the attack for the Lobos to give the Lobos their best chance for a win. The Lobos balanced attack worked great last week, but I still believe that the Lobos need one player to step up and be the main target in the attack and I think Guice can be that Lobo.
TIGERS:
The Tigers attack begins and ends with Sarah Schweiss, who leads the Tigers with 9 goals and also has 2 assists this season. The Tigers funnel everything through Schweiss, as she has 76 shot taken this season while the next Tiger player has 23. The Lobos need to make another Tiger be the one that beats them and make them change the way they play. If the Lobos are able to control Schweiss and where she gets her touches, I really like the Lobos chances to win this match.
Prediction:
I place these teams as being relatively even teams with a lot riding on this match. The Tigers attack reminds me of the Lobo men’s soccer team this season with one goal scorer this season. That being said I do like the Lobos chances of winning this match, because the Lobos are starting to play their best soccer of the season. I put the odds of the Lobos winning this match at 40% and coming out of this match with at least a draw at 67%. I predict a 2-1 Lobos win in what should be an exciting match with a lot of fight and a passion coming from both sides.
Game Info:
What: New Mexico (7-7-1; 5-2-1) At Colorado College (7-9-1; 5-3-0)
Where: Stewart Field, Colorado Springs, Colorado
When: Friday, October 23rd at 3 PM MT
Stream: Campus Insiders