After taking a week off for the bye, we’re back to looking at the Lobo’s path to bowl eligibility. The loss to San Jose State certainly didn’t help things, but the team still feel okay about their situation, needing to pick up just two wins in their final four games, three of which are at home. The bye week couldn’t have come at a better time for the team, as it gave them a chance to get healed and rested as they enter the toughest part of their schedule.
As before, below is the team’s remaining schedule and some quick information about each match-up. Since the Lobos last played, Colorado State played, and lost, a game, Utah State went 1-1, and Boise State and Air Force each won two games. Because of that, the biggest change in estimated win probability based on ESPN’s FPI came in the Air Force game, which went from the having the Lobos with a 34.5% chance of winning to a 21.5% chance.
| Date | Team | Current Record (MWC) | Current Overall FEI Rank | Current Estimated Win Probability (FPI) |
| November 7 | vs. Utah State | 5-3 (4-1) | 43 | 17.3% |
| November 14 | @ Boise State | 7-2 (4-1) | 33 | 2.4% |
| November 21 | vs. Colorado State | 3-5 (1-3) | 90 | 44.7% |
| November 28 | vs. Air Force | 5-3 (4-1) | 81 | 21.5% |
To paint an even clearer picture, the plot below gives a look at where all of the Mountain West teams are currently rated in terms of Offensive and Defensive FEI.
We’re really starting to see the conference to split into the “haves”, the “have-nots”, and “Hawaii”. Unfortunately for the Lobos, all four of their remaining opponents fall into the “haves”, while they’re pretty clearly in the thick of the “have-nots”.
As we’ve been doing this whole season, based on these win probabilities, we can simulate seasons to determine the probability that UNM makes a bowl game (explanation here). The distribution of the simulated win totals can be found in the plot below.
The probability of a bowl game, shown by the red bars, is now sitting at 18.8%, compared to last week’s probability of 34.7%. This is as low as the probability has been all season and it mostly relies on the team either beating Utah State or Air Force along with picking up the win against Colorado State. This is clearly going to be difficult to do, but not by no means impossible.
Utah State comes in this weekend as both an imposing challenge and a great opportunity. The Lobos have had two weeks to prepare for the Aggies and will hopefully get some of their injured players back. If they are able come out and pull off the upset, it will be the biggest win in the Bob Davie era and set the team up nicely on their path towards bowl eligibility. Hopefully a good home crowd can give the team the boost they need.