Women’s Soccer: MW Tournament Update and SJSU Match Preview

by Zach

A 2-0 win for the #3 seed Lobos over the #6 seed UNLV sets up Thursday’s semifinal match against #2 seed SJSU. On the other side of the bracket, #5 seed Colorado College won a 1-0 match against #4 seed Wyoming to set up the other semifinal against host and #1 seed SDSU. The semifinals will take place Thursday evening with the UNM vs. SJSU as the first match followed by Colorado College vs. SDSU. Lobos suffered a 2-1 home loss against SJSU in the regular season, which ultimately ended up being the difference between the two teams in the standings.

Teams (Seed):

  • SDSU 14-4-0; 10-1-0 (First round bye, plays Colorado College in semi finals)
  • SJSU 10-7-2; 8-3-0 (First round bye, plays UNM in semi finals)
  • UNM 9-8-1; 7-3-1 (Advances to semi finals against SJSU)
  • Wyoming 10-5-4; 6-4-1 (Eliminated by Colorado College)
  • Colorado College 8-11-1; 6-5-0 (Advances to semi finals against SDSU)
  • UNLV 11-9-0; 6-5-0 (Eliminated by UNM)

Lobos Results against Tournament Teams:

  • SDSU: Lobos lost a tough 2-1 home match.
  • SJSU: Lobos lost a 2-1 OT home match.
  • Wyoming: Tied 0-0 at Wyoming.
  • Colorado College: won 1-0 at Colorado College.
  • UNLV: Lost 3-1 in a home match.

I found it interesting that all the Lobos conference losses came at home this season while their only non-win on the road was the draw at Wyoming. Look for the Lobos to continue their great play on the road this week.

Conference Honors:

Five Lobos were awarded conference awards with a first team all-conference, two second team all-conference and two all-conference honorable mentions.

First Team: Madisyn Olguin

Second Team: Cassie Ulrich and Maddie Irwin

Honorable Mention: Dylann O’Connor and Emily Chavez

SJSU Match Preview:

The Lobos look for payback again tonight when they take on SJSU in the first semifinal match of the MW Conference Tournament. SJSU won the first match between these two teams with a 2-1 OT win in Albuquerque. The Spartans scored in the first ten minutes of the match and appeared they were going to win in regulation, but a Lobo goal in the 73rd minute sent the game to overtime. The Lobos controlled the second half after the Spartans controlled the first half, so it looked like the Lobos were going to come out of the match with at least a tie after the equalizer, but a goal by the Spartans in the 4th minute of the first OT won the match for the Spartans.

Stats:

LOBOS:

  • Have outscored opponents 26-21
  • Are even in first half goals at 12-12
  • Have outscored opponents 14-9 in the second half
  • Have outshot opponents 263-220, on average 2.2 more shots per match
  • Nine Lobos have scored a goal this season
  • Six Lobos have scored multiple goals this season
  • Madisyn Olguin leads the Lobos with six goals
  • Cassie Ulrich has a .97 Goal Against Average, with six shutouts
  • Were 5-0-1 on the road during conference play, 6-3-1 overall

SPARTANS:

  • Have outscored opponents 28-20
  • Have outscored opponents in the first half 13-6
  • Are even in second half goals 15-14
  • Have outshot opponents 254-166, on average 4.7 more shots per match
  • Ten Spartans have scored a goal this season
  • Five Spartans have scored multiple goals this season
  • Dorthe Hoppius and Darriell Franklin are tied for the Spartans with eight goals
  • Zoe Makrigiannis has a .79 Goals Against Average with six shutouts
  • Were 5-1 on the road during conference play, 7-3-1 overall

Prediction:

SJSU did win the first match at UNM Soccer Complex, but it was a 2-1 win in OT and the stats from the game show that it was a very even match. These teams are very even and both have played better on the road this year, so this really feels like a toss-up and I think that this is going to be a great match to watch. The Lobos must make the most of their chances to win this match, as both sides are very good on the defensive side of the ball and haven’t allowed many goals in Conference play (SJSU 5 goals allowed in 11 matches, UNM 10 goals in 12 matches). I put the odds of the Lobos winning this match at 35% and a 65% chance of this match ending in a draw, which means this match would go to a shootout. I predict a 2-1 Lobos win, and a chance to make the NCAA Tournament with a win in the Championship Match.

Game Info:

Who: UNM vs. SJSU

Where: SDSU, San Diego, California

When: Thursday, November 5rd, 5 PM MT

Stream: The MWN