The Lobos just picked up their biggest win of the season by knocking off Utah State this past Saturday, which gave them their fifth win on the season and closer to bowl eligibility than they have been since 2007. The Lobos now have three games to pick up that sixth win they need to become bowl eligible and although the remaining schedule isn’t easy, they have to be feeling confident. They also, interestingly, still control their own destiny in the conference, as if they win their remaining three games, they’ll actually win the Mountain Division. “Why not us?” indeed.
As before, below is the team’s remaining schedule and some quick information about each match-up. Boise State had a bye this week (probably scheduled so they can prepare for their big matchup this week), while Colorado State and Air Force both picked up wins. That, with the Lobos’ victory, meant that the estimated win probabilities based on ESPN’s FPI barely changed. CSU still seems like the best bet for the Lobos to pick up their sixth win, but the Lobos probably won’t be favored in any of their remaining games, so they’ll have to pick up an “upset” somewhere.
| Date | Team | Current Record (MWC) | Current Overall FEI Rank | Current Estimated Win Probability (FPI) |
| November 14 | @ Boise State | 7-2 (4-1) | 35 | 2.8% |
| November 21 | vs. Colorado State | 4-5 (2-3) | 87 | 45.2% |
| November 28 | vs. Air Force | 6-3 (4-1) | 77 | 24.4% |
To paint an even clearer picture, the plot below gives a look at where all of the Mountain West teams are currently rated in terms of Offensive and Defensive FEI. The further up and to the right a team is, the better the team is.
After last week, when there was a clear separation between the “haves” and the “have-nots”, the two groups moved a little closer together. There’s still the same distinct groups, but the gap doesn’t seem as large as it used to. Staying true to the state itself, Hawaii is off to the left by itself, doing its own thing.
As we’ve been doing this whole season, based on these win probabilities, we can simulate seasons to determine the probability that UNM makes a bowl game (explanation here). The distribution of the simulated win totals can be found in the plot below.
The probability of a bowl game, shown by the red bars, is now sitting at 59.7%, compared to last week’s probability of 18.8%. Last week, their bowl chances were as low as they’ve ever been but today, they’ve never been better. With three games remaining to pick up one more win, the Lobos have to like where they’re sitting.
Boise State has been the most daunting opponent on the schedule this whole season and playing up in Idaho doesn’t make things any easier. But, then again, who knows? The Lobos almost beat the Broncos last season and they are coming off playing their best football of the season. If they do win, we can stop trying to figure out the probability of being bowl eligible and instead try to figure out which bowl they’re going to play in.