After a couple of exhibition wins against D-II competition, the UNM men’s basketball team is ready to get to work, starting Friday night against Texas Southern University. After a disappointing season last year, the Lobos are ready to show that is all behind them and they’re back to where they want to be. Texas Southern is no D-II team, however, having scored some big road upsets last season and making the NCAA Tournament two years in a row. The Lobos will have to be ready for a fight, or they could be the Tigers’ next victim.

A Little about Texas Southern

Texas Southern has been a really strange team to research, as there just isn’t a lot of information about them out there and what is out there is pretty scattered. We know that their coach is Mike Davis, who coached at Indiana after Bobby Knight, we know that they’ve won their conference the past two seasons and are expected to do so again this year, and we know that they pulled off a couple of upsets last season by beating Michigan State and Kansas State on the road. Other than that, there isn’t a ton to go off of aside from some statistics from previous years.

We don’t even have a particularly clear idea of who is going to start for the Tigers tomorrow, if we’re being honest, especially because they didn’t play any exhibition games. In his presser yesterday, Coach Neal mentioned the following as who he expects to see at the beginning of the game:

1. David Blanks, 6’3” Senior Guard
2. Chris Thomas, 6’5” Senior Guard
3. Orlando Coleman, 6’5” Senior Forward
4. Jose Rodriguez, 6’7” Senior Forward
5. Malcolm Riley, 6’5” Senior Forward

The first thing to notice about this team is the lack of size in the post. Both Rodriguez and Riley are really power forwards, so they wouldn’t be starting a true center, and on the bench they have 6’9” Jermaine Davis and 6’8” Joshua Friar, but then no one else taller than 6’4”. This is where the value in playing teams like CSU-Pueblo and Rogers State comes into play, as all of the Lobo posts are going to have to be able to use their size advantage on offense and be able to guard the perimeter on defense. Riley shot 43.1% from three point range last season and Rodriguez shot 41.1% the season before. I suspect that we might end up seeing two of Tim Williams, Devon, and Joe play together for stretches at a time tomorrow night in order to combat that.

Another thing to notice is that they have five seniors starting and a couple more on the bench, so this is an experienced team. That said, a good chunk of that experience came playing for other schools. This team is mostly made up of transfers from both D-I and the JUCO ranks, so it will be interesting to see how well they all mesh. Coach Davis has a good reputation, so I wouldn’t be surprised if they play well together.

As for the other players, Chris Thomas is a former top high-school prospect who spent time at Marshall and at JUCO before he wound up at Texas Southern. He’s an explosive athlete with good size for his position that relies on getting to the rim to get most of his points. Last season, he averaged 12.6 ppg and 4.9 rpg, which is why he was selected to the preseason all-SWAC second team. He’s not a great shooter, so I wouldn’t be surprised if the Lobos focus on forcing him to become a jump shooter. David Blanks is their point guard and is known for his play on the defensive end, including being selected as the preseason defensive player of the year for the SWAC. Although he didn’t shoot that many of them, he did make 39.1% of his three pointers last season, so the Lobos have to make sure to close out on him. Orlando Coleman is a physical wing who also spends most of his time inside the arc. He’ll take the occasion three pointer, but wasn’t very good at them last season at Kennesaw State, and doesn’t get to the free throw line that often.

Kenpom.com had them rated as the 202^nd best team last season, including a 170^th rank on offense and a 231^st rank on defense. Because there has been some turnover from last season, it’s hard to say if those numbers will hold or not. What does seem likely for them, though, is with a fairly tough out-of -conference schedule, all away from home, there’s a decent chance that they start conference play with only a couple of wins before tearing through the conference and making the NCAA Tournament again.

Scattered Thoughts

• We’ll get our first real look at the rotation and it will be interesting to see who is currently carving out minutes for themselves. I think that we can safely guess about 8 guys in the rotation (the starting five, X, Devon, and whoever wins the backup point guard slot between Jordan and Tim J.), so it will be interesting to see how deep into the bench Noodles goes. My guess is that we’ll see as many as 11 guys play tomorrow, but if it’s really tight that might shrink down to eight or nine.
• I think we saw it from Tim Williams in the second exhibition, but it would be good to see the Lobo bigs show that they could take advantage of a huge size advantage. Being able to trust the post players to exploit those matchups to get easy points and draw fouls would certainly help them in this game and be a really good sign for the season as a whole.
• In the first exhibition, the three point shooting was really good (41.2%) and the free throw shooting was kind of bad (64.1%). In the second exhibition, it switched, with the team shooting an icy 25% from three and a solid 73.2% from the charity stripe. I hope that the team shows more consistency throughout the season, as I don’t want to be pulling out my hair when we go cold from both spots in an important game.
• Not specifically Lobo related, but I was shocked to hear that Utah State’s David Collette is transferring to some unknown university *cough*Utah*cough*, especially so soon before the season. His presence was why I personally had them third in my preseason Mountain West rankings and why we at Lobo Lane had them fourth. Without him, I might drop them closer to where Fresno State and CSU are, as it takes away their main interior presence. I also think that means that we can sort of readjust the official conference preseason rankings and say that the Lobos are really picked to finish fifth instead of sixth. Definitely a big loss for the Aggies and for the conference as a whole.

Prediction

Texas Southern is a team that certainly can come in and beat the Lobos if they catch them off guard, but it just doesn’t seem likely. Between the Lobos’ size advantage and home court advantage, I think that UNM will win somewhat handily 75-64.

Game Info

Who: UNM Lobos (0-0) vs. TSU Tigers (0-0)

Where: The Pit, Albuquerque, NM

When: Friday, Nov. 13, 2015 at 5:30pm

Radio: 770 KKOB

TV: Root Sports