After their biggest win in the Bob Davie era, the Lobos head up to Boise in hopes of creating a new biggest win. On top of that, the Lobos, now 5-4 on the season, are just one win away from becoming bowl eligible for the first time since 2007. This is probably their biggest test of the season and they are heavy underdogs because of it. However, on blue turf, it feels like anything is possible.
So who are we playing?
Boise State has earned its reputation of being the premier football program in the Mountain West by consistently being at the top of the conference standings year in and year out. This season is no different. Now that the Lobos did Boise a solid by beating Utah State, the Broncos look to have a clear path towards making the conference championship game once again. And, although arguments can be made for Utah State, this will certainly be the toughest conference matchup that the Lobos have this season, especially given that this game is being played in Idaho.
The Broncos are an all-around solid team, with a good offence and a great defense. Their offense, which has slipped a bit from last season due to the graduations of QB Grant Hedrick and RB Jay Ajayi, still features a lot of formations and looks, which continues to be difficult to prepare for. If there’s a big difference this season it’s that instead of the running and passing game being equally effective, the passing game is currently more of a threat than the run. As for the defense, it returns a lot of starters from last season’s team and has become suffocating against the run. Basically, this team is a really tough matchup for the Lobos.
On offense, the Broncos have been starting freshman QB Brett Rypien since the starter at the beginning of the season, Ryan Finley, broke a bone in his ankle. Rypien has been playing well, though, completing two-thirds of his passes and recording 12 touchdowns compared to 4 interceptions. One thing that he doesn’t bring to the table as much as Hedrick did last season is a huge threat of running it. He has some good targets to throw to, but his two favorite are 5’6” WR Shane Williams-Rhodes and 6’0” WR Thomas Sperbeck. Williams-Rhodes is more of a possession receiver and has, somewhat incredibly, not caught a touchdown pass yet this season despite having 50 receptions. Sperbeck is the deep threat, averaging 19 yards per reception and recording 7 touchdowns so far this season.
To replace Jay Ajayi, who is now on the Miami Dolphins, Boise has turned primarily to Jeremy McNichols. The sophomore running back had a slow start to the season, but has now had four consecutive games where he has rushed for over 100 yards. He has also had a rushing touchdown in each game this season, totaling 14 on the year, good for 6th in the nation. He is also a threat to catch a pass, collecting 29 receptions and three touchdowns on the season. Although I think that stopping the passing game is going to be the bigger challenge for the Lobos, keeping McNichols in check would go a long way towards a potential upset as well.
On the defensive side of the ball, Safety Dairan Thompson leads the strong Boise unit in several categories, including tackles, tackles for loss, and interceptions. As a unit, the Boise defense averages 1.8 interceptions per game, so they definitely have some ball hawks on their team. Their defensive leader last season, Tanner Vallejo, has been banged up this season and it’s questionable as to whether he’ll even play this game. But, even if he doesn’t, Boise still has a good, experienced group of linemen and linebackers. That group has been really tough to run against this season, as they only allow 2.3 yards per carry. If there’s any consolation, they were also good against the run last season, but the Lobos were able to rush for 505 yards against them. We’ll see if they can do that again.
Team Comparison
With this week’s update of the OFEI and DFEI ratings, we can see how the Lobos and their opponents are doing by those metrics this season compared to all of the other FBS teams. Unfortunately, the Lobos look to be in worse shape this year, as they no longer have an above average offense, although their defense looks to be improved. Boise State, as we can see, has been really good on defense this season and just barely above average on offense.
In terms of FEI, Boise State has the 56th ranked offense and the 21th ranked defense in all of the FBS. I feel like Boise is more known for some of the gimmicks and trick plays that they made famous when they rose to national prominence, but really, they’ve been hanging their hat on their defense for the past several years. The Lobos, on the other hand, have had a rough year by these ratings. They are 96nd in offense and 100th in defense. That represents a good improvement on defense but a sharp decline on offense compared to recent years. In terms of overall FEI ranking, Boise State is ranked 35th nationally while the Lobos are 108th. That, combined with Boise’s home field advantage, give a pretty clear explanation as to why Boise is favored so heavily.
As we have been doing, we’ll be comparing the production of each team by yards per attempt. The first two plots show the breakdowns of yards gained by both teams and the yards allowed by both teams. In the first plot, we see that the Lobos have been better on the ground and much, much worse in the air compared to the Broncos. Overall, the Broncos have ended up with 0.6 yards more per play than the Lobos. In the second plot, we see what the biggest difference is between a team that came into the season hoping for a bowl berth and a team that is hoping for a place in the football playoffs. For the season, Boise has allowed just 2.6 yards per rushing attempt, which puts them third in the nation behind Boston College and Alabama. The 4.3 yards they allow per play puts them sixth in the nation. When you have a defense that good, it’s no wonder that you’re thinking you have a shot at a national championship.
In the following plot, we see the difference between the teams’ points scored and points allowed. UNM is still barely holding on to a positive point differential, outscoring their opponents by 1.8 points per game. Boise, on the other hand, has outscored their opponents by an average of 21.6 points per game. That’s pretty okay, I guess.
What’s going on at Quarterback? (Smurf Turf Edition)
At this point, I think we have a decent idea of what the plan is at quarterback, although it’s still not a satisfying resolution. Both Lamar Jordan and Austin Apodaca are going to see some snaps in this game and I think that Coach Davie is going to ride whichever guy seems like he’s playing better for the majority of the game. Against Utah State, neither guy really had that great of a game so neither guy separated himself as being the primary guy. Boise State is really good against the pass, but they are outstanding against the run, so I have a feeling that Apodaca is going to be more successful against them. Of course, given how good Boise’s defense is, both guys are facing a big challenge. Hopefully the offense can overcome it to have a better game than last week.
Air Defense
Boise might not be the best offense that the Lobos have faced this season, but they might be the best passing offense the Lobos will see. For whatever gains the Lobos have had on defense, they still struggle against defending the pass. The best chance for the Lobos to slow down the Boise offense will be for the secondary to have their best game of the season and for the defensive line to get some pressure on the quarterback to help them out. The defense as a whole played really well against Utah State, they’ll have to be better against the Broncos.
Big Win Hangover
It’s pretty common for teams who have won meaningful, difficult matchups to have a bit of a letdown game the next week, so Davie and the rest of the coaching staff hopefully were able to keep the team healthy and hungry after their big win last weekend. The Lobos should absolutely be feeling good after beating Utah State, but the job’s not done. Yeah, this is going to be a tough game and yeah, the Lobos are major underdogs. But this game provides them with another chance to have a signature win, revitalize interest in the program, and clinch bowl eligibility. A tall task, sure, but not an impossible one.
Prediction
The line for this game has Boise State by 30.5, which can’t be right. Nope, that’s what it is, Boise by 30.5. Yikes. Well, I’m going to take the under on that, but I still think that they will win something like 35-17. Boise might actually feel like they need this win more than the Lobos, in some ways, as they need to win out to have a chance at a better bowl game than what they’d be offered through the conference bowl options. I’d expect them to come out focused and prepared for the Lobos.
Game Info
What: The University of New Mexico (5-4) at Boise State University (7-2)
Where: Albertsons Stadium, Boise, ID
When: Saturday, November 15 at 8:15pm MT
Where to Watch: ESPNU
How to Listen: 770 KKOB