Fresh off of picking up a program-defining win in Boise that ensured they’ll be bowl-eligible, the Lobos return home with their eyes on a new prize: a conference championship. After their last couple of games, the Lobos are now in the position of needing to win two home games to clinch the division and likely set themselves up for a game in San Diego for the conference championship. First up are the Colorado State Rams, who are looking to become bowl-eligible themselves, so with energized team and fan base, it should be a fun atmosphere at University Stadium.
So who are we playing?
Colorado State finds itself in the position that I actually assumed that the Lobos would be in going into this game: they need to win one of their last two games to become bowl-eligible. Being in this position is probably disappointing for the Rams after last season, where they went 10-2 before losing to Utah in the Las Vegas Bowl, but there are certainly reasons for their slide. First and foremost, their coach, Jim McElwain, was made a huge offer to take over at Florida and has managed to return the Gators to form. They also lost their quarterback, Garrett Grayson, to the NFL, where he was drafted by the Saints in the third round. Still, there is a lot of talent left on the roster, so this is a team that I think is more dangerous than their record indicates.
On offense, the Rams run a pro-style offense that has a fairly strong balance between passing and rushing. Their quarterback is sophomore Nick Stevens, who profiles more as a pocket-passer than as a rushing threat. He has had a mixed season, completing over 61% of his passes and recording 19 touchdowns, but has thrown 11 interceptions. This has to seem a little disappointing, however, given the weapons that he has to work with, namely WR Rashard Higgins. Higgins was a consensus All-American last season, putting up 1750 yards on 96 receptions for 17 touchdowns. This season, those numbers have dropped to 768 yards on 56 receptions and 8 touchdowns. Still, he is probably the best receiver that the Lobos will face this season, so it will be a good test for the rejuvenated secondary.
In terms of their ground game, the Rams rely on the combination of Jasen Oden and Dalyn Dawkins. Oden, the senior, is a bigger back at 5’11” and 218 lbs. and has been the more consistent of the two this season. He’s not just a big back, as he has good speed as well, evidence by the fact that he spent his first two seasons as a defensive back before converting to the backfield. The Lobos will need to continue to have good technique to bring him down, otherwise he’ll likely have a big game. Dawkins, a sophomore transfer from Purdue, is a little smaller at 5’9” 175 and has been more prone to catching passes out of the backfield. Because they bring different skills to the table, the Lobos will need to be aware of who is in the game to adjust their defense accordingly.
On defense, CSU has been led by senior linebacker Kevin Davis, who has 79 tackles on the season. They have an experienced secondary featuring the big safety Trent Matthews, who has racked up 57 tackles on the season and an interception, and CB Tyree Simmons, who has an interception and eight passes defended. All in all, their pass defense is better than their rush defense, which should be a point in the Lobos’ favor. We’ll see if the Lobos rushing attack can have the sort of big game that we know they’re capable of but has been missing since the NMSU game.
Team Comparison
With this week’s update of the OFEI and DFEI ratings, we can see how the Lobos and their opponents are doing by those metrics this season compared to all of the other FBS teams. The Lobos are continuing their creep towards the center that they started a few weeks ago, thanks to their performances against Utah State and Boise State. CSU, on the other hand, have shown themselves to be a slightly above-average offense and a slightly below average defense.
In terms of FEI, Colorado State has the 45th ranked offense and the 93rd ranked defense in all of the FBS. Although they seem to have the advantage on offense, the Lobos actually measure out to being the stronger defense. Just barely though, as the Lobos are ranked 92nd. However, it was only two weeks ago that they had the 115th ranked defense, so there has been a massive improvement recently. By overall FEI rank, the Rams are 88th and the Lobos are 99th, so with the Lobos having home-field advantage, this should be a very close matchup.
As we have been doing, we’ll be comparing the production of each team by yards per attempt. The first two plots show the breakdowns of yards gained by both teams and the yards allowed by both teams. In the first plot, we see that the Lobos have been better on the ground, as they have been against most teams this season, but have been worse in the air. When this is put together, CSU has a slightly better yards per play than the Lobos. In the second plot, we see that the two teams have fairly similar defensive profiles, with the Lobos being slightly better against the run and slightly worse against the pass. This equates to them being just a little bit better in terms of yards allowed per play.
In the following plot, we see the difference between the teams’ points scored and points allowed. The two teams are really similar, especially at this point in the season. Both teams score and allow similar amounts of points, which means that currently the Lobos have a 2.3 positive point differential while CSU has a 2.6 positive point differential. From this, everything seems to point to these being really evenly-matched teams which should make for a fun, competitive game.
Marathon Men
Last week against Boise State, the Lobos played 114 downs on defense, which is as ridiculous as it sounds. That’s tied for the most defensive plays that any team has had in a single game this season and is just one behind the most that any team has had in a single game since 2000. From a cursory glance, it doesn’t seem like other teams who have played that many downs on defense had major issues the following week, so hopefully that’s the case for the Lobos. I know that playing in the cold and on artificial turf for so many downs would have worn me down for a while, but I’m not a college-aged D-I athlete like they are.
Quest for a Bowl Game Conference Championship
With their win last week, the Lobos have clinched their bowl eligibility, so instead of tracking that, we can now start looking at their path to a conference championship. To get there requires winning the Mountain Division, so let’s take a look at the teams in the division, their conference record, and their remaining schedule:
- Air Force (5-1): @Boise State, @New Mexico
- New Mexico (4-2): Colorado State, Air Force
- Boise State (4-2): Air Force, @San Jose State
- Utah State (4-3): Nevada, BYU
- Colorado State (3-3): @New Mexico, @Fresno State
- Wyoming (1-6): Bye, UNLV
By the looks of it, and what other people are saying too, Utah State, Colorado State, and Wyoming are all eliminated from winning the division, so that just leaves Air Force, New Mexico, and Boise State. For the Lobos to win the division, the easiest path is to simply win out, but because they’ve won all of their division games so far, they actually hold quite a few tiebreakers. Looking at the scenarios and the remaining schedules, it has to feel like the Lobos have the inside track to winning the division, which would have sounded ridiculous to say even a week ago. What a crazy/fun season.
***UPDATE*** With Air Force’s win vs Boise State Friday night, it’s down to the Lobos and the Falcons. If the Lobos win against CSU, next weekend’s game effectively becomes the Mountain Division Championship. Between Air Force and New Mexico. Just like everyone expected.
I see it as Half Full
Attendance this season has been more down than up, but it will be interesting to see if that changes over the last two home games. In their last home game, less than 20,000 people showed up to watch the Lobos take down Utah State, which was a bit of a disappointment. However, right now, there’s more excitement surrounding the program than there has been in years and UNM has been doing their part to advertise the team recently, so hopefully that results in a few more people showing up to watch.
Prediction
The line for this game has Colorado State by 2, which is pretty fair for what feels like a toss-up sort of game. Really, any line under three in either direction would have seemed reasonable to me. I think that the Lobos are going to pull this one out, though, winning 30-24.
Game Info
What: The University of New Mexico (6-4) vs Colorado State University (5-5)
Where: University Stadium, Albuquerque, NM
When: Saturday, November 22 at 3:38pm MT
Where to Watch: Root Sports
How to Listen: 770 KKOB