The Lobos return to The Pit today, where they haven’t lost since the name change to WisePies Arena last year. After Tuesday’s 78-59 road loss to instate rival NMSU, the Lobos are hoping to bounce back and fix what went wrong down south. The Saturday afternoon game against Sacramento State (1-1) is an interesting matchup since both teams are coming off of loses to NMSU, with Sacramento State losing their game 80-77. While Sacramento State’s score was closer against NMSU, it doesn’t really give an idea of how this game will play out. Look for the Lobos to come out and show that their game on Tuesday is not the team they are and more of a fluke. I expect that we will see some changes in the rotation after Tuesday’s game, but nothing dramatic. It should be a good game on a day filled with Lobo sporting events.
Sacramento State
The Hornets coached by third-year coach Bunky Harkleroad [Ed. Wow]. During his first two seasons, he has taken the program to a higher level and has his team playing a very fun style of basketball. The Hornets are coming off an 18-16 season, in which they finished second in the Big Sky Conference and made it to the WNIT. Last year’s team averaged 85.6 points per game, mostly by shooting 39.4 three’s per game and making 12.5 of them. The Hornets are a very balanced team and have the approach of taking as many three pointers as they can, hoping to hit enough to beat their opponents. This style of basketball will allow the Hornets to win some games they shouldn’t and lose some games they shouldn’t. The Lobos can’t get locked into playing the Hornets’ style of basketball, but should instead focus on pounding the ball inside.
Starting Five and Rotation
The starting lineup in the NMSU saw one change from the two exhibition games and the regular season opener when Alexa Chavez returned from her injury. Chavez replaced Kianna Keller, so for the time being, the Lobos starting lineup looks to be Bryce Owens, Jannon Otto, Cherise Beynon, Khadijah Shumpert and Alexa Chavez. This will probably be the starting lineup for a while, unless someone plays their way into the starting lineup. With the four 10-minute quarters, the starting lineup isn’t as important as it use to be since you can effectively have four different starting points during the game. I expect that after her performance in Tuesday’s game, Emily Lines will see an increase in minutes. She was one of the few bright spots in the game, scoring 14 points with three 3 pointers. Something to watch in the rotation are the backup frontcourt positions, as we have three Lobos that should be playing decent amount of minutes in Jaisa Nunn, Whitney Johnson and Kianna Keller. The rotation will be interesting to see how it plays out during the early part of the season and into the conference part of the schedule.
Player to Watch
The player that I will be watching for the Lobos in this matchup against the Hornets is point guard Bryce Owens. Owens needs to control the pace of play as much as she can and not get in a rush to keep up with the pace that the Hornets want to play. When you play teams that play this style of basketball, your point guard is the most important player in the game for you, as they are able to dictate how you play on offense and try to slow the game down to a more comfortable pace. The Lobos need to focus on playing their game instead of trying to shoot as many threes as the Hornets.
Four Quarters
With women’s basketball now being broken up into four quarters, it will be interesting to see if the game becomes somewhat like the NBA. By that, I mean that coaches might have deeper-set rotations, knowing that there will be a small break in the middle so they can maximize rest, and that the games are made up of series of runs. Either way, this also means that the Lobos will need to view the game as four mini-games that they will need to start and finish well.
Prediction
This is an interesting matchup to predict because it feels like there are several ways this game could go. To give themselves the best chance to win, the Lobos need to make the Hornets take contested three-pointers and not allow the Hornets to collect many offensive rebounds. I think the Lobos do have better talent and should be able to win this game, but it really does come down to how well Sacramento State shoots the three. If they hit 15 or more threes, the Lobos will have a very difficult time of winning this game. I place the odds of the Lobos winning this game at 57%, so I’ll guess that the final score will be 75 to 68, Lobos, in a game with a lot of threes and a lot of fast break chances.
Game Info
Who: New Mexico (1-1) VS Sacramento State (1-1)
Where: WisePies Arena AKA The PIT; Albuquerque, New Mexico
When: Saturday November 21st 1 PM MT
Radio: 610 AM
TV: Mountain West Network