Because we’re way late on actually doing a recap for the Lobos’ win against Air Force on Saturday thanks to holiday traveling, I figured that it might be better to just lump it in with some scattered thoughts that I have about the team at the end of the regular season. So, here we go!
UNM-AFA Game Thoughts
Although there were certainly some nervous moments late in the game, the Lobos’ win against Air Force felt completely different than the games against Boise State and Utah State. In those games, there was a part of me that kept thinking that while the Lobos were winning, they didn’t necessarily look like the better team on the field and it was only a matter of time until their opponent came back to win the game. Against Air Force, I thought that the Lobos just flat out looked like the better team and deserved to win.
All things considered, I think that might have been the best game that the Lobos played all season. They averaged 7.9 yards per play on offense, and on defense they only gave up 14 first downs and had 3 interceptions. Yeah, they allowed Timothy McVey to have a career game, but he was the only one of the Falcons who seemed to be able to do any damage to the Lobos. Their best receiver, Jalen Robinette, was held to one catch for 10 yards and he was the only one besides McVey who caught a pass. Their best running back, Jacobi Owens, was limited to 39 yards on 11 carries. It would have been nice for the Lobos to not keep losing track of the diminutive running back, but at least they kept everyone else in check.
Some quick hits:
- Jhurrell Pressley had the best game of his collegiate career on Saturday, with 170 yards on 17 carries with three touchdowns. He was bothered a bit with a foot injury of some kind for part of the season, which explains why he had a down year by his lofty standards, but he still ended up with 846 yards on the season and 11 touchdowns. He’ll definitely be missed next season, so I’m glad we get to watch him one more time.
- On Air Force’s last possession, Dakota Cox sacked the Falcons’ Karson Roberts on first down, which is mainly notable for being only the second sack that Air Force allowed all season.
- The Lobos only had three penalties for the second straight week, which is something that Coach Davie takes some pride in. They’ve had a few games where the penalties started to get out of hand, so seeing them tighten that up here at the end of the season is a good sign.
- I don’t care what the ruling on the field was on the last play of the game; Teriyon Gibson made it into the endzone.
Air Force Grounded
Because the Lobos were effective at stopping Air Force’s running game, aside from one big run by McVey, the Falcons were forced into passing downs, which they aren’t nearly as good at. Air Force’s passing game tends to rely on deception, like faking an option run to one side and then throwing it deep to an open player. But, when they are forced to pass and everyone knows, it, they’re not nearly as effective. By S&P+ offensive metrics, they had the 5th highest rated passing offense, but on traditional passing downs, their offensive rating drops to 87th. That’s a huge gap and, I think, one of the main things that drove the Lobos to a win.
All-Conference Awards
The All-Mountain West Conference teams were named this week, and I can’t help but be a little disappointed by the small number of guys who were honored. No Lobos made the first team, WR/KR Carlos Wiggins was the only Lobo named to the second team, and LB Dakota Cox, C Eden Mahina, and DE Nik D’Avanzo were the only ones who received an honorable mention. As far as I can tell, only Fresno State and UNLV had fewer selections and they both went 2-6 in the conference. Hawaii went 0-8 in the conference and managed to get six players honored. Off the top of my head, I’m a little surprised that neither Zach Rogers or Ryan Langford weren’t honorable mentions, given that they had won player of the week awards, and there are a few other guys who would have made sense to pick up a few votes.
Because of that, the messaging that the Lobos are going with, and should be going with, is that this shows how much of a team effort this season was. With only a handful of top players, the Lobos had a strong conference season, including going 4-1 against their division, and almost made the conference championship. So then my question is, why didn’t Bob Davie win the Coach of the Year award? Obviously San Diego State had a great conference season, going 8-0, but they were expected to do well. They received 90% of the first place votes in their division and, lo and behold, they finished in first place. The Lobos were picked dead last in the Mountain Division and instead finished tied for second, with wins against teams that basically no one expected them to be competitive against. That just feels more impressive to me. (As a side note, if Air Force had beaten the Lobos, their coach, Troy Calhoun, would have been my pick for COY).
All that said, congrats to Carlos, Dakota, Eden, and Nik! They’re all worthy selections and I’m glad to see them honored.
Lobowling
We won’t know for sure what bowl game the Lobos will be playing against, or who they’ll be playing, but the best bet seems to be that they’ll get to stay home and play in the New Mexico Bowl. The NM Bowl gets the fourth pick of the bowl-eligible conference teams and if I had to guess the bowls that have earlier picks, I think that the conference champion will play in the Las Vegas Bowl, the loser of the championship game will go to the Poinsettia Bowl, and Boise State will play at home in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl. So, with the Lobos still on the board and being tied for the best record of those remaining, there’s almost no chance that the bowl will pass the Lobos up.
As for who the Lobos would play, Conference USA is the other conference tied to the bowl, but they only have five bowl-eligible teams and the NM Bowl gets the sixth pick out of that conference. So, unless one of the 5-7 teams in the conference is declared bowl eligible (which is certainly within the realm of possibility), the opponent could basically come from anywhere.
Wherever they end up playing and whoever they play against, the Lobos will find out what bowl they’ll play in on Sunday and that just feels good to say.