After a good win against a solid Oral Roberts team on Tuesday, the Lobos head out to West Lafayette, IN to take on the Purdue Boilermakers. Purdue sometimes gets lost in the shuffle, having to compete both on the court and for attention against the rest of the Big Ten elite, but make no mistake, this is one of the best teams in the country. A Lobo win tomorrow would likely catapult the team into the top 25 and put them on a good track towards an at-large bid in the NCAA Tournament.
Game Preview
Purdue has been off to a great start this year, going 7-0 so far in head coach Matt Painter’s 11th season. They’ve done this by basically being really, really good. By KenPom metrics, they’re the 11th most efficient offense and the 4th most efficient defense. So, with a dangerous offense and a stifling defense, their smallest margin of victory in a game has been 13 points. Needless to say, this isn’t a team who thinks of themselves as Big Ten contenders, they think of themselves as Final Four contenders.
The Boilermakers are known as a big team and for good reason. They feature a pair of 7-footers in sophomore Isaac Haas and senior A.J. Hammons, who both play significant minutes at center, and start two other players who are at least 6’8” in sophomore Vince Edwards and freshman Caleb Swanigan. Haas has been the team’s best offensive player and rebounder so far this season, averaging 13.7 ppg and 5.9 rpg while shooting 73.3% from the field this season. He has also been effective at drawing fouls, which is something that the Lobo big men are going to have to be careful with. Edwards is a wing who has been the Boilermakers’ best three point shooter so far this season, although he certainly isn’t afraid to take the ball to the basket, and currently leads the team in assists. Swanigan might be a familiar name around these parts, as the Lobos recruited him for some time until he initially committed to Michigan State before he flipped to Purdue. Although he’s had a slow start offensively, which I would expect to change at some point, he has been great on the boards, averaging 9 rpg.
Purdue’s starting backcourt looks like it will probably be 5’10” sophomore P.J. Thompson and 6’4” sophomore Dakota Mathias. That is, unless 6’6” senior Rapheal Davis has recovered from his sprained knee, in which case he would likely start ahead of Mathias. Davis is probably their best all-around guard, so whether or not he plays could be a big factor into the outcome of this game. As for the other two, Thompson and Mathias both average 2.3 apg and around 6 ppg. They’ve both shown the ability to knock down threes, so the Lobos will need to keep track of both of them on the perimeter.
Purdue does a lot of things well as a team, particularly on the defensive end. They are really strong guarding both two pointers, allowing teams to shoot just 35.8 from within the arc, and three pointers, only allowing their opponents to shoot 24.4% from there. The Lobos are really going to have to do a good job of moving the ball around to get good looks, otherwise this will be a long game for them.
Scattered Thoughts
- It doesn’t sound like Purdue is a team that presses all that often, but after the success that Oral Roberts had with it, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Lobos start seeing the press more often. In theory, they should be perfectly capable of handling it, with several guys on the team who have good size and can handle the ball. So, I don’t know if ORU just caught them off guard on Tuesday and they’ll be ready for it in the future or if it will be a problem down the road, but I’m leaning towards the former. Once they settled down, it was clear that they knew what they were supposed to do and got some easy baskets out of it. However, until they prove they can handle it, I’m sure teams will try it.
- With that said, if Purdue has any weak spot, it’s that they’re a little prone to having the ball stolen from them. Because of that, it might actually be a good idea for the Lobos to try to press them a little, especially when P.J. Thompson is on the bench. Getting some steals that lead to easy transition baskets could be just the thing that allows the Lobos to come out with a win.
- Clearly, for the Lobos to win there need to be several guys who have great games, but they guy who might the most vital is Obij Aget. With Purdue having two skilled 7-footers, the Lobos will rely on Big O to keep them in check, as he’s the best bet to do that, and to stay out of foul trouble. If O has to keep on the bench after picking up some early fouls, I’m afraid that Purdue is just going to have their way down low.
Prediction
Because Purdue has shown itself to be such a good team in this young season and they’re playing at home, it’s understandable that the Lobos are big underdogs. I think that the Lobos have the talent to win this game, but I still think that Purdue comes out with the win as they have the sort of defense that can shut the Lobos down. I’m going to guess that Purdue wins 75-62, but if the Lobos have another good shooting night, they might come home with a big win under their belts.
Game Info
Who: New Mexico Lobos (5-1) at Purdue Boilermakers (7-0)
Where: Mackey Arena, West Lafayette, IN
When: Saturday, December 5th at 12:15pm MT
Radio: 770 KOB
TV: Big Ten Network