Now that the regular season is over, the conference champions have been decided, and all of the bowl games scheduled, I thought it would be a good time to take a look back at the conference season. With the Mountain Division ultimately coming down to either Air Force or New Mexico, clearly this season didn’t go exactly as predicted, which, at least to me, made things more fun.
Overall Team Ratings
In the following plot, all 12 MWC teams are plotted by their offensive and defensive FEI ratings. If you’ve seen these plots from earlier in the season, you’ll notice that while there are still a couple of distinct groups, the separation between them has shrunk.
Looking at this, it seems clear that the Mountain Division was the better of the two conferences, which I think is the general perception. The Mountain Division looks as though they have about five teams that are better than just about everyone, aside from SDSU, in the West Division. We can also see that the Mountain West had three teams in the “Good O/Good D” category, one team in the “Bad O/Good D” category, and everyone else in the “Bad O/Bad D” category. This makes me think that, as a whole, this feels like it was a little bit of a down season for the Mountain West, but even then they still managed to place eight teams in bowl games. Unfortunately, two of those teams are stuck having to play each other.
Team Overviews
Below, each team has their season (very) briefly summarized, including their record, their ratings in advanced metrics (using Football Outsiders’ FEI and S&P+ and ESPN’s FPI, what bowl game they’ll participate in (if any), how they did against the Lobos, their biggest win and worst losses, and some thoughts on their season in a nutshell.
Air Force
Record: 8-5 (6-3, 1st place Mountain)
Ratings: FEI: 64th Overall (36th Offense, 61st Defense, 40th Special Teams); FPI: 75th; S&P+: 46th
Bowl Game: Against California in the Armed Forces Bowl, Ft. Worth, TX, 12/29/15
Game vs. UNM: Loss, 47-35 (at UNM)
Biggest Win: At Boise State (37-30)
Worst Loss: At New Mexico (47-35)
In a Nutshell: After a bit of a slow start made it seem like the Falcons were experiencing the drop-off from 2014 that most expected (they were picked 4th in the Mountain Division preseason poll), they instead rattled off five straight wins to clinch the division with a week remaining, including wins against presumed favorites Boise State and Utah State. A loss to New Mexico in the last regular season game moved the conference championship game to San Diego, where they lost to the Aztecs by 3 in a back-and-forth game. They’ll get to travel to the DFW area to face Cal in the Armed Forces Bowl, where they will likely be moderate underdogs. It remains to be seen if Air Force will continue their success, but head coach Troy Calhoun has been doing a really good job there, so I wouldn’t bet against them.
Boise State
Record: 8-4 (5-3, T-2nd place Mountain)
Ratings: FEI: 46th Overall (62nd Offense, 25th Defense, 53rd Special Teams); FPI: 38th; S&P+: 59th
Bowl Game: Against Northern Illinois in the Poinsettia Bowl, San Diego, CA, 12/23/15
Game vs. UNM: Loss, 31-24 (at Boise State)
Biggest Win: Vs. Washington (16-13)
Worst Loss: Vs. New Mexico (31-24)
In a Nutshell: Boise came into the season not only looking like the best team in the conference, but also as a team that could earn a berth to a BCS Bowl. The wheels started to fall off when they lost to Utah State about halfway through the season and then completely fell off when they lost two straight home games to UNM and Air Force, which knocked them out of the hunt for a conference championship. They’re left playing against Northern Illinois in the Poinsettia Bowl, and should likely win, but that has to feel like a disappointment for a team with loftier expectations. They did find that their freshman quarterback, Brett Rypien, looks like he’s the real deal, so I doubt that Boise will be down for long.
Colorado State
Record: 7-5 (5-3, T-2nd place Mountain)
Ratings: FEI: 87th Overall (57th Offense, 94th Defense, 21st Special Teams); FPI: 93rd; S&P+: 83rd
Bowl Game: Against Nevada in the Arizona Bowl, Tucson, AZ, 12/29/15
Game vs. UNM: Win, 28-21 (at UNM)
Biggest Win: Vs. Air Force (38-23)
Worst Loss: Vs. Colorado (27-24 OT)
In a Nutshell: It was an up-and-down season for first year coach Mike Bobo, as with four games to go, the Rams were sitting at 3-5 on the season and just 1-3 in conference play. However, the remaining four games included New Mexico and three teams that didn’t win more than three games on the season. They won all four games which not only made them bowl eligible for the third straight season, but put them tied for second in the division with three other teams. Unfortunately, they ended up in the Arizona Bowl against Nevada, which feels like the biggest booby prize of a bowl game that I can remember. This team is still mostly made up of Jim McElwain players, so it will be interesting to see what happens when Coach Bobo’s influence on the team is more pronounced.
Fresno State
Record: 3-9 (2-6, T-4th place West)
Ratings: FEI: 111th Overall (108th Offense, 102nd Defense, 114th Special Teams); FPI: 111th; S&P+: 99th
Bowl Game: None
Game vs. UNM: N/A
Biggest Win: Vs. UNLV (31-28)
Worst Loss: Vs. Nevada (30-16)
In a Nutshell: Just two years after an 11-2 season that saw them win the conference and get invited to the Las Vegas Bowl, Fresno had their second worst winning percentage in program history. Their only FBS wins were against UNLV and Hawaii, neither of which are good, and they got blown out by just about everyone else they played. Heads have started to roll there, with their offensive coordinator already fired, so another down year like that could see some massive changes to a program that just last year made its 14th bowl in 16 seasons.
Hawaii
Record: 3-10 (0-8, 6th place West)
Ratings: FEI: 123rd Overall (123rd Offense, 111th Defense, 31st Special Teams); FPI: 120th; S&P+: 118th
Bowl Game: None
Game vs. UNM: Loss, 28-27 (at UNM)
Biggest Win: Vs. Colorado (28-20)
Worst Loss: Vs. Fresno State (42-14)
In a Nutshell: In their first game of the season, Hawaii had a somewhat surprising win against Colorado, leading some to believe that this could be the first Hawaii team to really be a factor in the Mountain West. 10 straight losses to FBS teams later, the Rainbow Warriors find themselves with new head coach and are hoping to turn the program back around to where it was competitive on a national stage.
Nevada
Record: 6-6 (4-4, T-2nd place West)
Ratings: FEI: 97th Overall (97th Offense, 91st Defense, 73rd Special Teams); FPI: 98th; S&P+: 100th
Bowl Game: Against Colorado State in the Arizona Bowl, Tucson, AZ, 12/29/15
Game vs. UNM: Win, 35-17 (at Nevada)
Biggest Win: Vs. San Jose State (37-34 OT)
Worst Loss: At Wyoming (28-21)
In a Nutshell: Nevada was the beneficiary of the imbalanced conference scheduling this season, avoiding Boise State, Air Force, and Colorado State, which meant that they might have had the softest conference schedule. To that end, their 4-4 conference record doesn’t really include many impressive wins, but does contain a couple of bad losses. They’re also stuck in the Arizona Bowl, playing against Colorado State, so a win there would not only legitimize them further, it would give them a 7-6 record for the fourth time in five years.
New Mexico
Record: 7-5 (5-3, T-2nd place Mountain)
Ratings: FEI: 94th Overall (77th Offense, 89th Defense, 78th Special Teams); FPI: 97th; S&P+: 101st
Bowl Game: Against Arizona in the New Mexico Bowl, Albuquerque, NM, 12/19/15
Game vs. UNM: N/A
Biggest Win: At Boise State (31-24)
Worst Loss: Vs. Tulsa (40-21)
In a Nutshell: Bob Davie’s fourth season saw the team’s perception go from a potentially bowl eligible team to another year as also-rans to the best Lobo team in almost a decade. Needless to say, it’s been a bit of a rollercoaster. When their backs were most against the wall, needing to win two games against the gauntlet of Utah State, Boise State, Colorado State, and Air Force to become bowl-eligible, the Lobos went 3-1 and were just a touchdown short of winning the division. They’ll play at home in the New Mexico Bowl against Arizona, a former conference rival, and look like a program truly on the rise for the first time in years.
San Diego State
Record: 10-3 (9-0, 1st place West)
Ratings: FEI: 51th Overall (48th Offense, 35th Defense, 6th Special Teams); FPI: 61st; S&P+: 52nd
Bowl Game: Against Cincinnati in the Hawaii Bowl, Honolulu, HI, 12/24/15
Game vs. UNM: N/A
Biggest Win: Vs. Air Force (27-24)
Worst Loss: Vs. South Alabama (34-27 OT)
In a Nutshell: With a 0-3 start against FBS teams, including an embarrassing loss to South Alabama at home, many people assumed that the preseason favorite in the West Division had fallen off of a cliff and the division was up for grabs. Instead, the Aztecs haven’t lost since, winning 9 straight games, including the conference championship. Up next is Cincinnati in the Hawaii Bowl, where they’ll look to continue their win streak and probably enjoy the beach a little, which I know is a luxury for them.
San Jose State
Record: 5-7 (4-4, T-2nd place West)
Ratings: FEI: 98th Overall (63rd Offense, 116th Defense, 117th Special Teams); FPI: 89th; S&P+: 92nd
Bowl Game: Against Georgia State in the AutoNation Cure Bowl, Orlando, FL, 12/19/15
Game vs. UNM: Win, 31-21 (at SJSU)
Biggest Win: Vs. New Mexico (31-21)
Worst Loss: At Oregon State (35-21)
In a Nutshell: San Jose had kind of a rough go at it this season, never stringing together consecutive wins and going 1-6 against bowl teams. But, thanks to an overabundance of bowl games, they managed to get a waiver to become bowl eligible despite their losing record. They’ll face Georgia State, who also just barely managed to squeak into a bowl game, in the AutoNation Cure Bowl, which ESPN regards as the worst bowl game of the season.
UNLV
Record: 3-9 (2-6, T-4th place West)
Ratings: FEI: 105th Overall (94th Offense, 119th Defense, 86th Special Teams); FPI: 104th; S&P+: 107th
Bowl Game: None
Game vs. UNM: N/A
Biggest Win: At Nevada (23-17)
Worst Loss: At Fresno State (31-28)
In a Nutshell: The Rebels ended up with three wins on the season which, believe it or not, is only the fourth time since 2004 that they didn’t have exactly two wins, so this could almost be construed as a successful season by their recent standards. They did hang tough with a few teams this season, so they really don’t seem like they’re too far off from heading back to a bowl game themselves. Even if they don’t, at least they have a cool new field.
Utah State
Record: 6-6 (5-3, T-2nd place Mountain)
Ratings: FEI: 59th Overall (51st Offense, 41st Defense, 63rd Special Teams); FPI: 76th; S&P+: 76th
Bowl Game: Against Akron in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl, Boise, ID, 12/22/15
Game vs. UNM: Loss, 14-13 (at UNM)
Biggest Win: Vs. Boise State (52-26)
Worst Loss: At New Mexico (14-13)
In a Nutshell: The Aggies ended the season with a .500 record, but that’s not really indicative of the team’s quality. All six of their losses, and three of their wins, were to teams that are playing in a bowl game. They even pulled off a big win against Boise State, which put them in line to win the Mountain Division until they faced the one-two punch of UNM and Air Force. They’ll play on the Smurf Turf against Akron in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl, and I wouldn’t be surprised if they end the season with a winning record. Either way, I think that they’re set up to be competing for a conference title again next season.
Wyoming
Record: 2-10 (2-6, 6th place Mountain)
Ratings: FEI: 118th Overall (95th Offense, 120th Defense, 128th Special Teams); FPI: 116th; S&P+: 114th
Bowl Game: None
Game vs. UNM: Loss, 38-28 (at Wyoming)
Biggest Win: Vs. Nevada (28-21)
Worst Loss: Vs. Eastern Michigan (48-29
In a Nutshell: The Cowboys started the season out by losing six straight games by double digits, including a loss to FCS North Dakota in their season opener. They did manage to pull out wins against Nevada and UNLV in the second half of the season, but still suffered four more double-digit losses. Their head coach, Craig Bohl, had a lot of success in the FCS, winning three straight national championships before being hired away by Wyoming, so there is certainly hope that he will be able to replicate his success, and soon.