It’s been a whole week since the Lobos last hit the court, in their hard-fought loss at Purdue, so I think that the team, the coaches, and certainly the fans are ready to see them back in action. They’ll face another tough challenge on Saturday when Northern Iowa visits the Pit.
A Little about Northern Iowa
Last year, Northern Iowa kind of came out of nowhere to go from being a solid mid-major team to a borderline top-10 team nationally. They ended up winning the conference tournament and earned themselves a 5 seed in the NCAA Tournament, where they blew out Wyoming in the first round before losing to Louisville in the second. They did all this on the back of a senior-laden team, led by second-team All-American Seth Tuttle, who graduated after last year alongside three other seniors. However, although there has been the expected drop-off, this year’s team has already started strong, including a huge home win against then #1 ranked UNC.
Unlike last season, where the team was built around a dominant big man, this year’s version of the Panthers looks to be built around the backcourt. They’re led in scoring by 6-1 senior guard Wes Washpun, last year’s MVC Sixth Man of the Year. Washpun is doing most of his damage from inside the arc, shooting 58.6% from two while shooting only 28.6% from three. He has also been really good distributing the ball, ranking 34th in assist rate nationally.
Washpun is joined in the backcourt by three other guards in 6-4 senior Matt Bohannon, 6-5 junior Jeremy Morgan, and 6-6 senior Paul Jesperson. All three players have proven to be good outside shooters and look to take most of their shots from behind the arc. Bohannon in particular has been great shooting threes, as he is currently shooting 46.9% on roughly 6 attempts per game. All four backcourt players have been playing 30+ minutes or so each game and all four score more than 10 points per game, so I would expect to see a lot of each of them tomorrow night.
The lone starting post for the Panthers is Bennett Koch, a 6-9 sophomore who barely saw the court last season. Koch has been doing alright this season so far, averaging 8.0 ppg and 3.4 rpg. He has only been playing about 20 minutes each game, so expect to see 6-7 sophomore Klint Carlson and 6-9 junior Ted Friedman a decent amount. When Northern Iowa needs to play big, Carlson tends to slide to the four, but for the most part only one of these three will be on the court at any given time.
As a whole, Northern Iowa is one of the best shooting teams in the country, ranking 15th in three-point percentage and 46th in two-point percentage. They are also effective at taking care of the ball, only turning the ball over 10.5 times per game. However, they also don’t force a lot of turnovers either, as they average 10.4 takeaways per game. They also aren’t a great rebounding team, particularly on the offensive glass, where they rank 339th in offensive rebounding percentage. But, of course, that’s not as big of a deal when your team’s good at shooting the ball.
Scattered Thoughts
- Northern Iowa may be one of the best shooting teams around, but the Lobos have been one of the best teams in the country at holding their opponents to a low shooting percentage. Right now, Lobo opponents have an effective field goal percentage of 43.6%, which is the 26th lowest such value in the country. UNM’s defense has really been its calling card so far this season, so it will be interesting to see how their strength matches up with UNI’s.
- The Purdue game, among other things, showed how valuable Obij Aget is to this Lobo team. He is not only the team’s best interior defender, he’s a much better rebounder than anyone on the team not named Tim Williams. Because he only played 10 minutes last time out, Purdue was able to have a massive 17-3 advantage in offensive rebounds. I know that isn’t the only reason that Purdue was able to get the advantage over the Lobos, but it’s a pretty significant one.
- Northern Iowa may not be the marquee name that some fans wish the Lobos would bring to town, but this really is a matchup between two teams that might be on the bubble for an at-large bid come tourney time. Whichever team wins this game will have a leg up on the other when that time comes, so I hope that plenty of fans make it out to give the Lobos an advantage. I’m sure that both teams know the importance of this matchup, so I’d expect to see two focused teams playing with a lot of intensity Saturday night.
Prediction
Northern Iowa might end up being the best team that the Lobos play at home this season, so I expect this to be a close, competitive matchup. However, I do think that the Lobos length will give the UNI shooters issues and I don’t think that the Panthers have an answer for Tim Williams, who I think will have a big game. So, I’ll pick the Lobos to win 78-72.
Game Info
Who: UNM Lobos (5-2) vs. UNI Panthers (6-2)
Where: The Pit, Albuquerque, NM
When: Saturday, December 12, 2015 at 7:00pm
Radio: 770 KKOB
TV: ESPN3