Here it is, everyone, the long-awaited return to postseason play for the New Mexico Football Team. As was expected, the Lobos were given the opportunity to stay home to play in the New Mexico Bowl, where they’ll fact a familiar face from the past: the Arizona Wildcats. Both teams feel as though they have something to prove in this game, so I’m expecting a hard fought game tomorrow.
So who are we playing?
Arizona is coming off of a relative down year for them. After winning the Pac-12 South a season ago and getting an invite to the Fiesta Bowl, the Wildcats stumbled a bit en route to a 6-6 record. Really, it took an upset win against #10 ranked Utah in overtime to clinch their bowl eligibility, as they got beat by Arizona State in their season finale. This has ultimately been a disappointing season for the Wildcats, as they were ranked in the top 25 at the beginning of the year, but have seen a slew of injuries turn this team from a Pac-12 contender to a team that barely made it to a bowl.
Head coach Rich Rodriguez is known for having good offensive teams, and this team is no different. After all, they score 36.8 points per game and average just under 500 yards per game. They’re led by sophomore quarterback Anu Solomon, who completed 63.0% of his passes, racking up 2326 yards and 18 touchdowns versus 4 interceptions on the year. He’s typically more of a pocket passer than a guy who looks to scramble, but he has been known to take off when he needs to. He also missed the last game with a concussion and there were some questions going into this week whether or not he’d be able to play, but he’s been cleared to go and I’d expect him to be at full strength.
Solomon has several weapons that he likes to utilize on offense, namely 6’3” WR Cayleb Jones, 5’10” WR Johnny Jackson, 5’7” WR Nate Phillips, and 6’4” WR David Richards. Each of these guys have caught at least 40 passes, gain at least 12 yards per reception, and have scored at least 4 touchdowns. It’s safe to say that Solomon likes to spread the ball around, so the Lobo secondary won’t be able to focus on just one or two guys like they’ve been able to do in several of their games. On a side note, Ken Griffey Jr.’s son, Trey, is a receiver on the team as well, so that’s fun.
In the backfield, Arizona has used a combination of Nick Wilson, Jared Baker, and Jerrard Randall. Randall is actually a quarterback who has gotten some playing time in most of Arizona’s games, likely for the change of pace that he brings. Although he will throw it some, he’s not particularly accurate. Instead, he seems to be best when he’s running the ball. Wilson and Baker are the primary running backs, both receiving similar numbers of carries, with Baker maybe having a little more recently. They seem to be fairly interchangeable, with both players having similar production and physical measurements. Regardless who is running the ball, it will be a key for the Lobos to limit their production, as Arizona tends to struggle when they can’t get their running game going.
On defense, the Wildcats suffered a bunch of injuries to important players, so there have been some struggles for them this year. Luckily for them, they’ll have their best defensive player returning for this game in Scooby Wright. Wright was an All-American last season and finished 9th in the Heisman voting after picking up 164 tackles, 15 sacks, and forcing 5 fumbles (which were good for first, third, and first in the nation respectively). This year, he suffered a foot injury at the beginning of the season and has only really played in one game this season. He’s apparently all healed up, so look for him to be fired up to prove that he’s healthy for any NFL scouts who are watching.
Of the guys who actually played this season, their leading tackler is senior safety William Parks, who was an honorable mention all-Pac-12 selection this year. Senior DL Reggie Gilbert received the same honor, as he led the team in sacks on the season with 3.5. As a unit, the Wildcats haven’t been great at forcing turnovers, averaging only 1.1 takeaways per game. For reference, the Lobos average 1.9 takeaways per game. If the Lobos do a good job at hanging on to the ball and forcing the depleted Arizona defense to make plays, they should have a successful day.
Team Comparison
To get an idea of where the two teams sit relative to the FCS at large, we can look at the offensive and defensive FEI metrics. In the plot below, all 128 FCS teams are shown plotted by their OFEI and DFEI ratings. For both metrics, positive numbers are good and negative numbers are bad. As we can see, the Lobos are slightly below average in both offense and defense, ranking 77th and 89th respectively. Arizona, on the other hand, is above average on offense and below average on defense, ranking 32nd and 99th respectively. To get a sense of what that’s like based on previous opponents of the Lobos, it’s pretty close to Tulsa’s final ratings (50th on offense, 103rd on defense), although Arizona’s offense is noticeably better.
As we have been doing all season, we’ll be comparing the production of each team by yards per attempt. The following two plots show the breakdowns of yards gained by both teams and the yards allowed by both teams. In the first plot, we see that the Lobos have been a little worse than the Wildcats on the ground but are a little ahead of them on passing plays. Of course, Arizona throws the ball more than twice as many times per game as UNM does, so they end up outgaining the Lobos in the air 267.3-129.9. They also play at a much faster tempo than the Lobos have, which means that they (and their opponents) take about 14 more snaps per game than the Lobos do.
In the second plot, we see how effective each team has been against the pass and the run. As we can see, the two teams have been remarkably similar on defense, with the Lobos being slightly worse all around. However, I don’t think that there is enough there to make it seem like either team has been significantly better than the other on the defensive side of the ball.
In the following plot, we see the difference between the teams’ points scored and points allowed. The Lobos ended the regular season with a positive point differential, which is great to see. Their numbers but them really close to average on both offense and defense, as they have scored the 61st most points per game in the FCS and have allowed the 66th fewest points per game. Arizona, on the other hand, is also running a positive point differential, but have gone about it very differently. They have scored the 19th most points per game this season, but have allowed the 107th fewest points per game on defense.
Rivalry Game?
This is a matchup between two schools that were rivals back in the day (the series even has its own Wikipedia page!), but ever since Arizona left to go to the Pac-10 conference, the rivalry has kind of fizzled. To give an idea of that, since the first Star Wars movie came out in 1977, the two teams have faced each other six times. Still, I know that there are a lot of Lobo fans who remember when this was a rivalry and they still get pumped up every time Arizona comes to town. Because of that, and because of the fact that this is the first bowl game that the program has been to since 2007, I’d actually expect a pretty good crowd to show up tomorrow. There should be a good atmosphere in University Stadium tomorrow, so hopefully that helps inspire the Lobos to step up and play their hearts out.
Limit the Big Plays
As much as the defense has improved as the season has gone on (and they certainly have), they are still a little too prone to giving up the occasional big play. If we think back to the Air Force game, it felt too often that the Lobos looked like they were going to get a big stop, only to give up a huge play. If the Lobos are going to win tomorrow, that can’t happen. They need to keep their focus every down, fill the gaps in the line, and not lose track of anyone streaking down the field. I think that if they don’t allow many big plays, the Lobos should have a decent shot a winning the game.
Turning the Corner
Since the team beat Boise State up in Idaho, it seems like the program has had a noticeable upward trajectory. They’ve already signed a few JUCO offensive linemen for next season, which fills a huge need for the team, and new commits keep popping up week-in and week-out. There’s been an increase in the excitement level for the team here in New Mexico, but their performance this year has increased the excitement level for the team elsewhere too. Win or lose, this season has been exactly what the program needed and will potentially bring the program back to being a consistent contender in the conference. Still, a win would certainly be preferable.
Prediction
The line for this game has Arizona by 8, which is actually a little lower than what I would have guessed, given the general perception going around that Arizona is much better than UNM. I’m not sure that’s the case, to be honest, and I’m certainly not going to pick against the Lobos at this point. So, I’ll take the Lobos picking up their first bowl win since 2007 with a final score of 42-35.
Game Info
What: The University of New Mexico (7-5) vs The University of Arizona (6-6)
Where: University Stadium, Albuquerque, NM
When: Saturday, December 19 at 12:00pm MT
Where to Watch: ESPN
How to Listen: 770 KKOB