With a sweep of NMSU now under their belt and having gained a little momentum, the Lobos now turn their attention to their final tune-up before their holiday tournament in Hawaii. That tune-up comes in the form of the Rice Owls, which would make this an interesting matchup if this were baseball, but alas, they’re playing basketball tonight.

A Little about Rice

Rice hasn’t been traditionally known as much of a basketball program, but they looked to be on the rise a few years ago. With California’s old coach, Ben Braun, they started to bring in some solid recruits and began to really build a foundation for a program. Then, after some rough allegations against the school’s athletic director from a few of the players, that foundation crumbled. A year after finishing in KenPom’s top 150 teams, they finished 323^rd by that site’s rankings. Last year, in new head coach Mike Rhodes’ first season, they showed some signs of life, particularly towards the end of the season, allowing the team to finish ranked 209^th, which was their highest ranking since the program fell apart.

This year has been a step back, as Rhodes keeps trying to rebuild the program but has had some issues with injuries and transfers. Before the regular season started, Rice lost two guards, junior Marcus Jackson and freshman Chad Lott, to knee injuries. Jackson was the team’s best player last year, so losing him was a huge blow to the team. They also had 7’1” center Nate Pollard transfer after playing just 2 games. So with all that, Rice only has 8 scholarship players available tomorrow.

Of those, they’ve been led by 6’2” freshman guard Marcus Evans and 6’5” sophomore wing Egor Koulechov. Evans averages 19.6 ppg, 4.0 rpg, 2.9 apg, and 2.1 spg. A big part of his scoring comes from drawing fouls and getting to the line, where he shoots over 8 free throw attempts per game, making 73.2% of them. Koulechov is more of a shooter, averaging almost 7 three-point attempts per game, making 40.6%. He is also the team’s leading rebounder, grabbing 6.4 boards per game.

Those two are joined in the starting lineup by 5’9” point guard Max Guercy, 6’5” wing Bishop Mency, and 6’10” post Andrew Drone. Guercy is not much of a shooter, but he does averages6.1 apg, making him the main ball distributer on the team. Mency has been struggling this season offensively, shooting 29.6% from the field and only scoring 4.1 ppg. Drone is the only guy on the team taller than 6’7” but has been fairly effective in the post, averaging 7.4 ppg on 66.7% shooting.

Overall, this hasn’t been a particularly good team this season, as they’ve been about average on offense but really bad on defense. A big issue that they’ve been having is that they are shooting under 30% from three point range, but their opponents are shooting 42.1%. That means that their opponents as a whole are shooting about as well as Steph Curry. There’s hope for the future though. Rhodes is starting to bring in better recruits and they should be healthier next year. Although I wouldn’t expect them to have a great season this year, they might be interesting to check back in on in a few years.

Scattered Game Thoughts

• At this point in the season, the Lobos’ big three, Elijah Brown, Tim Williams, and Cullen Neal, are each averaging over 31 minutes played per game. That’s an awful lot and there are already some concerns by the coaching staff that they’ll start to get worn out if this keeps up. This games might have come at a good time, as they should be able to jump out to a comfortable lead to allow the bench players to get some more minutes (it’s worth keeping in mind that according to KenPom, the bench only plays about 30% of the available minutes, which is a below-average amount). We need all three of those guys to be healthy and playing well the rest of the season, so any chance for them to get some rest will be important.
• As San Diego State’s struggles continue, it becomes more and more apparent that the Mountain West is wide open. Before the season started, the Aztecs were close to being the consensus pick to win the conference, with the 2^nd-6^th teams or so falling a notch below them. Now, it looks as though there isn’t any separation between SDSU and the rest of the pack, meaning that there are now several teams who have decent arguments as to being the best in the conference. Luckily, the conference season starts soon, so things will be able to sort themselves out. With all that said, the Lobos have to be feeling confident about their chances.
• With the Aztecs looking like they’re having a down year, there doesn’t seem to be a team in the conference, at the moment, who having a win against them would look good on the Lobos’ tournament resume. That means that the next week will be vital for the Lobos’ at-large chances. First off, they have to win today to avoid a bad loss, which should go without saying. But next week brings a great opportunity, as the Lobos might get to face Auburn, BYU, and Oklahoma in succession if they keep winning. Any of those wins would be nice on the resume and all three would make it seem more likely than not that they’ll make it to the NCAA Tournament. If they struggle in the holiday tournament, they’ll have quite a bit of work to do in conference play if they want to earn an at-large bid.

Prediction

Rice looked like they were going to be an okay opponent when the season started, but with a depleted roster, they’ve turned into a bottom-tier team. So, the Lobos should come away with a win and should do it fairly comfortably. I’ll predict that they come away with an 83-61 victory.

Game Info

Who: UNM Lobos (7-2) vs. Rice Owls (4-6)

Where: The Pit, Albuquerque, NM

When: Saturday, December 19, 2015 at 6:00pm

Radio: 770 KKOB

TV: ROOT Sports