After a disappointing loss, to say the least, to Rice at home on Saturday, the Lobos now turn their attention to their holiday tournament: The Diamond Head Classic in Honolulu, Hawaii. Their first opponent is Auburn, a team that they’ll need to get past if they want a chance at the other good teams in the tournament.
A Little about Auburn
The Bruce Pearl-led Auburn Tigers are defined by a couple of things: A potent offense and a fast pace of play. The team averages 83.9 points per game, largely bolstered by their strong shooting, and they also have the 15th fasted adjusted tempo in the nation per KenPom. They shoot 39.6% from three point range, which is 35th in the country, and 50% from inside the arc, which is 112th. However, they aren’t a great defensive team, rating below average in defensive efficiency according to KenPom. That means that they’ve had a lot of success scoring the ball, but they only have a 5.1 positive scoring margin. They are currently 5-3 on the season, although their only win against a KenPom top-100 team was a 1 point home win against UAB in their first game of the season. They’ll have several more opportunities for good wins though, as they come out of the SEC and so will have to face the likes of Kentucky, Vanderbilt, Florida, and Texas A&M.
So far this season, they’ve been led by 6’1” junior guard Kareem Canty, who is averaging 20.0 points, 2.9 rebounds, and 5.8 assists per game. He has been lights-out from three point range, taking about 9 attempts per game and making 44.3% of them. He has also been good at taking care of the ball, which has led to an almost 3:1 assist to turnover ratio. The Tigers also feature senior forwards Cinmeon Bowers and Tyler Harris, both of whom are averaging double-digit points and more than 8.5 rebounds per game. Bowers, at 6’7” does most of his work inside the arc but does occasionally step out to shoot threes, which he is currently making at a 40% clip. He’s also a great defensive rebounder, so the Lobos will have to fight hard against him if they’re going to get many second chances. Harris is the taller of the two, at 6’10”, and spends his time down low, where he is shooting 56%. He is also a very good rebounder on both ends of the court. Both Bowers and Harris draw a good number of fouls, so they’ve shot a lot of free throws so far this year. However, both players are shooting under 66% from the charity stripe, which limits their effectiveness there.
The other starters are guards T.J. Dunans and Bryce Brown. Dunans is a 6’5” junior who is averaging 13 points, 2.8 rebounds, and 3 assists per game. Like Canty, he has shot the ball well from deep, making 39.3% of his three point attempts. However, he’s also been really effective inside the arc, making 55.8% of his shots there. Brown, a 6’3” freshman, is a recent addition to the starting lineup, but he has also shown the ability to shoot the three, making 35.1% of his attempts. Almost 80% of his shot attempts have been from behind the arc, so whoever is guarding him will need to do a good job keeping track of him out there.
Those five guys are likely going to be on the court a lot in this game as, like the Lobos, Auburn doesn’t give its bench many minutes. Canty, Harris, Dunans, and Bowers are all averaging at least 28 minutes per game and Brown played 25 minutes in his one start. To me, this means that if the Lobos can get some of these guys into foul trouble, they’ll have a real advantage in this game.
Scattered Game Thoughts
- It’s really hard to predict what is going to happen in the other games, but it’s most likely that if the Lobos want to pick up some resume-building wins this week, they have to win this game. If the best teams all win their first round games, we’d be on the same side of the bracket as BYU, Northern Iowa, and Oklahoma, all of whom are quality opponents. The other side of the bracket will be filled with okay teams (think, on the level of NMSU or Oral Roberts), but more wins against those teams isn’t really going to impress the selection committee. Beating Oklahoma would be the real prize in this event and it will most likely take a win against Auburn to make that a possibility.
- With the starters again playing a lot of minutes on Saturday (Tim W. and Sam played 31 minutes each, Elijah played 30, and Cullen played 25), it’s going to be even more important for the bench to provide quality minutes this week. The team will play Tuesday, Wednesday, and Friday, so there’s a good chance that the starters will get a bit worn down if they’re out there playing their usual minutes. This is especially true out of the guards. If some combination of Jordan, Tim J., Anthony, and X can give some good production while giving Cullen and Elijah a rest, it would really help the team’s chances this week and be a good sign for the rest of the season.
- In general (aside from Saturday’s game) the Lobo defense has been really good this year. However, there are a couple of things that they they’re a little below average at: steals and giving up free throws. The steals thing could be strategic. If they gamble for more steals, they might get more steals but that could open up some holes for the opponents to take advantage of. The free throws are a bit more disconcerting. As a team, they average 22 fouls per game, which is kind of a lot, and they allow opponents to take 23.1 free throws per game compared to the 21.4 that they take. I know that one goal of theirs is to make more free throws than the other team attempts, which is something they’ve only accomplished in the Northern Iowa game. I think that the fact that the Lobos are a young team might play a part in this, so if that’s the case then this should improve as the season goes on. It’s at least something to keep an eye on.
Prediction
There are two ways that this team can respond after their loss on Saturday: they could get down on themselves and go into a downward spiral or they could learn from it and get back to the solid team we know they can be. I think that they’ll respond with the latter, which is why I think they’ll win 85-80.
Game Info
Who: UNM Lobos (7-3) vs. Auburn Tigers (5-3)
Where: Stan Sheriff Center, Honolulu, HI
When: Tuesday, December 22, 2015 at 12:30pm
Radio: 770 KKOB
TV: ESPNU