A few years ago, I went to Hawaii for a friend’s wedding, expecting to spend time hiking, snorkeling, fishing, and otherwise enjoying all that the island had to offer. Instead, I stepped on a sea urchin my first day out there and was stuck on the couch for most of my trip. That still might have been a better Hawaii experience than what the Lobos just had. That holiday tournament ended their non-conference schedule with a thud, leaving them at 7-6 heading into conference play. They’ll look to regroup tonight against Nevada, hopefully righting the ship and getting the season back on track.

A Little about Nevada

The Nevada Wolf Pack are led by first year head coach Eric Musselman, who I’m sure you’ll be told numerous times was once Craig Neal’s head coach in the CBA. They’ve had an 8-4 start to their season, mostly winning the games that they were expected to win and losing the ones they were expecting to lose. Their biggest loss this season, however, was when senior all-conference center AJ West quit the team a couple of weeks ago. They’ve only played a couple of games without him, beating a bad Santa Clara team at home and then getting blasted by Wichita State on the road, so it remains to be seen how they handle his absence.

Nevada has been led by senior guard Marqueze Coleman, who is averaging 17 points, 4.1 rebounds, and 3.8 assists per game. He mainly gets his points in two ways: driving to the basket and making free throws. He doesn’t shoot a ton of threes, or shoot them particularly well, but he’s averaging almost 8 free throw attempts per game and is shooting 78.7% from the line. Nevada’s next leading scorer is 6’6” junior forward DJ Fenner, who is averaging 13.3 points, 5.4 rebounds, and 2.6 assists per game. He isn’t a very efficient offensive player, getting those 13.3 points per game on 12.8 shots per game. He’ll shoot a lot a threes, but is only making them at a 32.2% clip. They’re joined on the perimeter by Lindsey Drew, a 6’4” freshman who had originally committed to Arizona State. He hasn’t really been that much of a factor on offense, but is mostly earning his keep on the defensive end, leading the team in steals per game.

In the frontcourt, the Wolf Pack have been recently starting 6’8” freshman Cameron Oliver and 6’7” sophomore Elijah Foster. Oliver has proven to be a good rebounder and shot-blocker while averaging 10.4 points per game. Foster hasn’t really played all that much this season, even in games that he starts, and he hasn’t been much of a factor. This is clearly a game where the Lobos have a big advantage inside, meaning that Tim Williams should have a big game.

Off the bench, Nevada gives significant time to 6’3” guards Eric Cooper and Tyron Criswell. With one or both of these guys on the court, Nevada tends to play a lot of four-guard lineups, spending about half of their time in that formation. However, unlike most teams that play that way, Nevada is not a good three-point shooting team, making only 28.3% of their attempts as a team, “good” for 332^nd in the country. If the Lobos play defense on the perimeter the way they did in their first nine games of the season, Nevada shouldn’t be too much trouble from out there.

Scattered Game Thoughts

• With the face plant that the team performed out in Hawaii, there’s been some talk about mixing up the starting lineup. So, after giving the matter some considerable thought, here’s my suggestion: don’t change the starters at all. However, do make Jordan Hunter the first guy off the bench, regardless of who is coming out. I think that he’s starting to show that he is getting up to the speed of the game at this level and is deserving of more playing time. That, plus Cullen’s occasionally turnover issues, have made some fans want him to get some starts.
  However, I don’t know who you take out of the lineup that makes sense. Obviously, no one is going to suggest that either Elijah or Tim should come off the bench, but I don’t know that the other guys are good options either. Sam and Big O are our best perimeter and interior defenders, respectively, and Cullen, despite what some might think, is the best at running the offense on the team. That said, I like the idea of Jordan being the primary backup point guard and, if either Elijah or Sam gets into foul trouble, he also could come in and play point to allow Cullen to slide over to the shooting guard position.
  I also think that if Obij gets into foul trouble, the team would be better off with a four guard lineup instead of trying to force one of the reserve big men to fill Big O’s shoes, as the drop off there is actually pretty drastic. Plus, there aren’t many teams in the conference that necessitate having two big men out there at the same time, so a Hunter-Neal-Brown-Logwood-Williams lineup should be pretty competitive out there.
• Coach Neal has gotten a little flack recently for mentioning that the team is really young, which leads to some inconsistency and the occasional slide like last week, but he’s not wrong. KenPom has the Lobos ranked as the 43^rd least-experienced team (out of 351) in terms of who is actually getting minutes, which does make sense. Here’s the list of players available who had more than one full year of playing D-I basketball under their belts before the season started: Tim Williams and Cullen Neal (by a whopping three games). That’s Kentucky-esque, just without the McDonald’s All-Americans. A major downside to having a team this young is that they’re still trying to figure out the ropes, how to play with one another, and how to handle adversity. However, the upside is that they’ll keep learning as the season goes on and they have the potential to be a really good team when this season is done. This team has the potential to win the conference tournament in March, but it’s up to them to realize that potential. I think they can do it, but time is starting to run out.
• Two weeks ago, the Lobos were 7-2 and a top-50 team by most metrics and had a legitimate shot to earn an at-large berth to the NCAA tournament. Last week, they played so poorly, they’ve dropped to a team who is 7-6 and in the 125 range. That’s a crazy decline at this point in the season, which means that for a four game stretch, they were playing like a bottom-50 team. Obviously, the truth is in the middle (which is a bold statement to say that they’re somewhere between being one of the best and worst teams in the country, I know), but I’m inclined to believe that they are closer to the upper end of the spectrum. Last week, without being able to practice and regroup between games, the issues just seemed to snowball. Being the eternal optimist that I am, I think that things will get straightened out and that the team will be better because of it. We’ll see tonight, I suppose.

Prediction

This feels like a weird game to predict, as the Lobos should be the better team all around but are coming off of one of the worst stretches of play I can remember out of them. Still, I’m not panicking just yet and I think that we’ll see a focused and hungry Lobo team tonight who will come out with a 76-65 win.

Game Info

Who: UNM Lobos (7-6, 0-0) vs. Nevada Wolfpack (8-4, 0-0)

Where: The Pit, Albuquerque, NM

When: Wednesday, December 30, 2015 at 7:05pm

Radio: 770 KKOB

TV: ROOT Sports