The Lobos (7-4) return to action tonight, kicking off Mountain West Conference play by facing Nevada (1-10) in Reno. The Lobos look to regroup after a tough third quarter against NMSU that cost them the game against the Aggies. The Lobos finished out their non-conference slate with a solid 7-4 record with no bad losses and a great road win against Minnesota. The Lobos will look to build off last year’s 2nd place finish in both the conference regular season and tournament, with the ultimate goal to make the NCAA Tournament. The Lobos look to get off to a great start against a struggling Nevada Wolf Pack team. If the Lobos want to win the regular season title, the Lobos need to sweep the weaker teams in the conference and the Wolf Pack fit that bill.
One thing to keep an eye on while watching this game is how well the bench plays. In their last game against NMSU, Jayda Bovero and Jaisa Nunn were the two bright spots for the Lobos in their minutes of the bench. Nunn has been a constant force off the bench and Bovero’s game against the Aggies could be a sign of things to come. The Lobos need to find a couple of other bench players to be great contributors to the team if they are going to reach their potential. Look for Jannon Otto to adjust to college basketball by the second half of conference play to give the Lobos a great wing scorer off the bench. Emily Lines is practicing again, which is a welcomed sign for the Lobos, as she will be able to give the Lobos another wing scorer who was playing well in the minutes she was getting before her injury.
The Lobos will go as far as their best players will take them. Namely, they can’t afford Khadijah Shumpert getting in foul trouble in big conference games, as she is playing at a high level and needs to stay on the court. Cherise Beynon needs to be a steady force in the backcourt and put pressure on the other team’s best wing player. Senior point guard Bryce Owens needs to control the play of the team and be the player that makes sure the Lobos stay under 12 turnovers per game. If the Lobos get this from their leaders, it will be a fun conference season for the Lobos. The big wildcard for the Lobos is Jaisa Nunn. If she can get to where she is playing 25 minutes a game with the same energy and production, she could end up being an All-Conference Player.
Nevada Wolf Pack:
The Wolf Pack are led by eighth year Head Coach Jane Albright. Coach Albright is in her 32nd year of being a College Head and has won 497 games. The Wolf Pack are coming off a rough year, in which they finished 9-21 overall and 5-13 in Conference play. It appears that it will be a tough conference season for the Wolf Pack, as they have yet to win a game against a Division 1 team. The Lobos aren’t good enough to overlook this game and expect to win, so I expect that Coach Sanchez will try to jump to an early lead to make sure that the Wolf Pack won’t be in this game at the end.
The Wolf Pack do have a good player in senior forward Nyasha Lesure, as she is averaging 12.8 points, 5.9 rebounds, 1.3 assists and 1 steal a game. Lesure has shot the ball well, including 49.5% from the floor and 35% from three. She hasn’t been productive from the free throw line (57.1%), but she has been their most productive player this season. Junior College All-American transfer guard Stephanie Schmid has had a difficult transition to Division 1 basketball so far this season. Schmid is averaging 9.8 points per game, but she is shooting only 25.4% from the floor, and 25% from three. Schmid has shot well from the foul line shooting 85.7%. It may just be a matter of time before she has better production.
Team Stat Comparison:
- Points Per Game: Lobos 66.7; Wolf Pack 56
- Points Allowed Per Game: Lobos 60; Wolf Pack 71.4
- Field Goal Percentage: Lobos 40.3%; Wolf Pack 36.9%
- Three Point Percentage: Lobos 29.6%; Wolf Pack 25.3%
- Free Throw Percentage: Lobos 63.5%; Wolf Pack 66%
- Defensive Field Goal Percentage:2%; Wolf Pack 45.6%
- Defensive Three Point Percentage: Lobos 29.1%; Wolf Pack 31.3%
- Rebounds Per Game: Lobos 41.8; Wolf Pack 35.3
- Assists Per Game: Lobos 15.4; Wolf Pack 10.7
- Turnovers Per Game: Lobos 16.5; Wolf Pack 19.7
- Turnovers Forced Per Game: Lobos 16.9; Wolf Pack 13.7
After looking at the team stats, it is easy to see why the Lobos are a huge favorite in this game. The only stat the Wolf Pack have the edge in against the Lobos is a 2.5% advantage at the free throw line, which is unlikely to be a deciding factor.
Matchup to Watch:
Normally I pick one of the starters from the Lobos, but today I will be watching the matchup between two New Mexicans that will be facing each other in the second unit. Alexa Chavez for the Lobos may get an expanded role for tonight’s game as Jaisa Nunn is questionable to play tonight. Alexa, who was starting at the end of last season and has played well in her minutes this year, will be someone will help the Lobos with her energy and defense to win a championship. For the Wolf Pack, they have sophomore forward Teige Zeller, who has started four games this season and will face off against her home state team. Zeller, who was a star player for Los Lunas playing for her dad, has a chance to be a very good player for the Wolf Pack.
Prediction:
In my opinion, this should be one of the easiest games the Lobos will play this season. While that doesn’t mean the Wolf Pack can’t challenge the Lobos and even win this game, it is hard to see the Wolf Pack being in this game if the Lobos play their game and bring energy to Reno. The Lobos have more talent, a better offense, and a better defense, which gives me a reason to put the Lobos odds of winning this game at 98%. I predict the final score to be 77-52. A blowout win in the conference opener will give this team the confidence that can hopefully carry on through the whole conference schedule.
Game Info:
Who: New Mexico (7-4) AT Nevada (1-10)
Where: Lawlor Events Center, Reno, Nevada
When: Wednesday December 30, 7:30 PM MT
Radio: 610 AM
Stream: Campus Insiders