The Lobos had a nice bounce-back game on Wednesday to start their conference season, beating Nevada 88-76 to snap their four-game losing streak. Things don’t get any easier though, as they travel to Fresno, CA to take on the Fresno State Bulldogs, another team with conference championship aspirations who just knocked off UNLV in Las Vegas. Although a loss likely won’t be devastating to their hopes of winning the conference, a win would give the Lobos a huge leg up on the competition and put the rest of the league on notice that they’re a team to be reckoned with.
A Little about Fresno State
The Bulldogs, helmed by fifth-year head coach Rodney Terry, got off to a nice start in conference play by picking up a road win against UNLV on Wednesday. They’re 10-4 overall, with their losses coming to some good teams (Evansville), on the road (Cal Poly), or both (Arizona and Oregon). However, none of their wins had been particularly impressive until their win against UNLV, which felt needed to confirm most people’s thoughts that this year’s Fresno team is one to take seriously in the conference. They’re one of the most experienced teams in the country (14th overall), so this feels like the year they’ve been building towards.
As a team, they’re a bit better than average on offense and good on defense. On offense, they’ve done a few things well: taking care of the ball, getting offensive rebounds, and drawing fouls to get to the free throw line. They haven’t shot particularly well this season, rating below average from inside the arc, outside the arc, and from the charity stripe, which is what has kept their offense from being more efficient. On defense, they’re pretty good all around, particularly at forcing turnovers, blocking shots, and holding their opponents to a low shooting percentage. If there’s anything they’ve struggled with, it’s allowing teams to get to the free throw line, as their opponents average 24 free throw attempts per game (For comparison, the Lobos send their opponents to the free throw line 22 times a game. Expect a bunch of free throws is what I’m saying).
The backbone of their team is 6’4” senior guard Marvelle Harris, who was voted by the media as the MWC Preseason Player of the Year. He’s been having a pretty good season so far, averaging 18.6 points, 4.3 rebounds, 4.3 assists, and 1.7 steals per game. This year, he’s be best at attacking the basket and drawing fouls. In the past, he was a good three point shooter, but his shooting percentage from three has dropped down every year to where it is now, a poor 29.2%. Hasn’t stopped him from shooting a bunch of them though.
After Harris, they get balanced scoring from the rest of their starters, as Torren Jones, Paul Watson, Cezar Guerrero, and Karachi Edo all average between 8.8 and 11.8 points per game. The 6’9” Jones and the 6’6” Edo are the starting posts for the Bulldogs, both of whom have proven to be excellent rebounders on both ends of the court. Jones averages 8.1 boards per game and Edo averages 7.3 boards per game, with a little under half of those being offensive rebounds for both of them. On the perimeter, the 6’1” Guerrero nominally runs the point, although that’s mostly for ball handling, as Harris is the better distributor. Where Guerrero has shined this year is beyond the arc. He is currently shooting 45.1% from three point range, so although he doesn’t take a bunch of shots from there compared to some others, he’s been effective when he does. Watson is a 6’7” wing who has also been effective shooting threes (38.8%), but has struggled a bit from two, only shooting 40.8% from there.
Off the bench, Fresno does have some size in 6’9” Cullen Russo and 6’10” Terrell Carter and a couple other guards that see minutes in 6’4” Julian Lewis and 6’2” Lionel Ellison. None of these guys have been major offensive threats this season, but Russo has proven to be good on defense and on the boards while Lewis has be a good distributor off the bench. One guy who might make a difference for them off the bench if he plays is Jahmel Taylor, a transfer from Washington who just became eligible this semester. He’s a 6’0” guard who is known as a good three point shooter, so if he plays (he didn’t against UNLV), the defense will need to make sure that he doesn’t get free.
Scattered Game Thoughts
- Xavier Adams is coming off of his best game as a Lobo and if he’s taking a step forward in his play, it couldn’t have come at a better time. He’s one of the most versatile players on the team and his presence really allows Coach Neal to utilize a lot of different lineup combinations. Plus, if he keeps playing at the level he did Wednesday, he gives the team the legitimate bench presence they’ve been needing all season. I think that he’ll have an important role to play in this one, as I wouldn’t be shocked to see him forced into action because of foul trouble.
- One nagging question that I still have about this team is about how well they can play on the road. Aside from the NMSU game in Las Cruces, the Lobos haven’t looked particularly good playing away from the Pit, losing those five games by an average of 15.8 points per game. That feels a little unusual, as they’ve actually not seen too much of a drop off on the road the past few years. A win against Fresno would be a good step towards proving that they still can be road warriors.
Prediction
There are a few things that I see working against the Lobos in this game: they’ve been having turnover issues and Fresno is good at forcing them; they haven’t proven that they can win on the road; and they’re thin on the bench and there will probably be a lot of fouls in this game. It’s entirely possible that they go out on Saturday and show that none of those things are an issue, which I hope they do as it will give me more confidence for the season as a whole, but until then I won’t have a great feeling about this one. My guess is that Fresno wins 80-74. I hope I’m wrong.
Game Info
Who: UNM Lobos (8-6, 1-0) at Fresno State Bulldogs (10-4, 1-0)
Where: Save Mart Center, Fresno, CA
When: Saturday, January 2, 2016 at 7:30 pm
Radio: 770 KKOB
TV: CBS Sports