The Lobos (8-6, 1-2) will return to action Wednesday night, seeking to end an unusual home losing streak. A year after going undefeated at home in conference play, the Lobos started their home conference slate with an OT loss to FSU, which was their second straight loss at home. The Lobos find themselves in an interesting spot with their back to back losses, needing to go on a long winning streak to get back into the conference regular season championship discussion. In order for the Lobos to reach their peak as a team, they need to find a way to have consistent offensive production, as they haven’t had a great offensive game since the Minnesota road win.
The Lobos will look to get back on track tonight, taking on UNLV (8-6, 1-2) at home in a very important game for each team. If the Lobos want to find themselves on the winning end, they need to have a great game from Khadijah Shumpert and Cherise Beynon (I’m not saying that they can’t win if they don’t get their best games, but they can’t have no-show efforts). A key to the Lobos as the season goes on is the rotation that Coach Sanchez uses. Bryce Owens, a four-year starting point guard, came off the bench in the USU game and played very well, so there will be the question if she should start instead of Laneah Bryan or Jannon Otto. However the rotation ends up, every player needs to fill their roles as best they can.
UNLV Rebels:
The Rebels are led by eighth-year head coach Kathy Oliver, whose tenure has been a mixed bag of results and hasn’t seen a winning season in a handful of seasons. The Rebels are having a good season so far, at 8-6 overall and 1-2 in MW play, but have struggled as of late by going 3-6 after starting the season 5-0. The Rebels have struggled away from Cox Pavilion, going 2-4 so far this season, so it is important for the Lobos to find their PIT magic again.
The Rebels this season are led by four starters averaging over 10 point per game, with their fifth starter at 7.1 points per game. With the balance of the Rebels attack, it will be important for the Lobos to make sure that their point guard doesn’t get their scorers great looks. In my opinion, the best Rebels player is Brooke Johnson, who leads the Rebels in scoring at 14.1 points, 4.1 rebounds, 2.8 assists per game, and already has 40 steals on the season. The Lobo guards must take care of the ball and not allow Johnson to get in the open court for fast break points. The Rebels, like the Lobos, have struggled on the offensive side of the ball and have been reliant on their rebounding. The Rebels are maybe the best rebounding team the Lobos will play this season and have three starters averaging at least 6.8 rebounds per game.
If the Lobos can limit turnovers in this game and keep the Rebels off of the offensive glass, the Lobos should be able to win this game pretty easily. This will be a tough task, but I think the Lobos will be up to the challenge. The Lobos need to rebound as a team, with everyone attacking the defensive glass. In particular, Cherise Beynon needs to be a key factor on the glass and help the front court players from the Rebels frontline.
Team Stat Comparison:
- Points Per Game: Lobos 64.7; Rebels 63.7
- Points Allowed Per Game: Lobos 60.6; Rebels 57.6
- Field Goal Percentage: Lobos 38.6%; Rebels 35.8%
- Three Point Percentage: Lobos 28.8%; Rebels 28.3%
- Free Throw Percentage: Lobos 62.8%; Rebels 63.6%
- Defensive Field Goal Percentage: Lobos 36.5%; Rebels 36.4%
- Defensive Three Point Percentage: Lobos 29.9%; Rebels 30.9%
- Rebounds Per Game: Lobos 40.9; Rebels 46.4
- Assists Per Game: Lobos 14.1; Rebels 10.4
- Turnovers Per Game: Lobos 16.1; Rebels 16.6
- Turnovers Forced Per Game: Lobos 17.7; Rebels 18.1
The key team stat to look at for this game is which team will be able to shoot better than their sub-40% field goal percentage. Both teams have struggled on offense, so if one team is able to hit shots, they have a chance to run away with this game.
Matchup to Watch:
The match up I will be watching tonight will be Laneah Bryan and Bryce Owens as they go up against the very talented Brooke Johnson. If the two Lobo point guards are able to run the offense effectively and not turn over the ball, I really like the Lobos chances in this game. If Johnson and the Rebels force the Lobos into bad shots and turnovers, this game could get really ugly for the Lobos. I think that the Lobo point guards will find a way to have great games and will lead the Lobos to an important conference home win.
Picks:
I had a terrible day on Saturday going 2-3, putting me now at 10-9 on the young season. Here are my picks for Wednesday’s games:
UNM vs. UNLV
BSU vs. Nevada
SJSU at WYO
USU at AFA
CSU at SDSU
Prediction:
This will be a defensive struggle, with both teams having scoring issues lately, making this a very hard game to predict how it will play out. It could end up being an offensive game where both teams have their break out games, or it could be a game in the 40s. However, I think that it will be a little low scoring and end up being a game played in the 50s. I put the odds of the Lobos winning this game at 58%, as I do believe that the Lobos are slightly the better team and being the home team gives them a few more percentage points. I will set the final score at 59-55 Lobos.
Game Info:
Who: New Mexico (8-6, 1-2) vs. UNLV (8-6, 1-2)
Where: WisePies Arena AKA The PIT, Albuquerque, New Mexico
When: Wednesday January 13, 7 PM MT
Radio: 610 AM
Stream: Campus Insiders