Women’s Basketball at Air Force Preview

by Zach

The Lobos (10-7, 3-3) head to Colorado Springs to take on the Air Force Falcons (0-18, 0-7) after coming off a much-needed 71-57 win Saturday against SJSU. While there are still questions that need to be answered for the Lobos if they are going to challenge for the league title, they were able to play much better on the offensive side of the ball. The biggest concern for the Lobos after the game was the 22 turnovers they committed, which won’t do against better teams. There were some bright spots in the game, as Cherise Beynon finished with a double-double with 17 points (7-17 FGs), 10 rebounds, and 4 assists and Khadijah Shumpert had a very productive offensive game, finishing with 16 points (7-9 FGs) and 9 rebounds. Shumpert was again limited in her minutes due to foul trouble, only getting 20 minutes of action. The Lobos were also able to get good production from Whitney Johnson (11 points and 7 rebounds) and from freshman Jannon Otto, who finished with 7 points, 5 rebounds, and 3 assists.

The Lobos now turn their attention to the Falcons, who have yet to win a regular season game this season and sit in last place in the conference. This is a game the Lobos should have no problem winning (knock on wood), so the final score won’t be what the Lobo coaching staff will be looking at after the game. They will want to see the Lobos to build off their offensive success from their last game while limiting their turnovers. I expect that we will be seeing extended minutes from the bench in order to give Shumpert and Beynon some rest, if for no other reason than because the Lobos won’t have another bye all season. I’d also like to see Otto build off her performance against SJSU and give the Lobos another threat on the wing. It was good to see Jaisa Nunn starting to get back to form after her concussion earlier this season, as her presence really helps the offense, so it would be good to see her continue to progress. Finally, I am interested to see what other bench players will step up and make the most of their opportunities.

AFA Falcons

The Falcons are led by Chris Gobrecht, who is in her first season as the Falcons Head Coach. Coach Gobrecht has plenty of Division 1 head coaching experience, having led Cal State Fullerton, Washington, Florida State, USC and Yale for a combined total of 34 years. I expect the AFA program to improve during her time in Colorado Springs, but the first couple of season will be very difficult as AFA is probably the most difficult job in women’s college basketball. The limitations for the program are easy to see, as they have to find players that qualify for the service academy who are also willing to go to a service academy, they are unable to recruit international players, and they must develop players into good Division 1 players just to have a competitive team. I have a ton of respect for any coach that leads a service academy and the players that make the commitment to serve our country.

The Falcons are a team that is struggling, as they don’t have a player shooting over 40% from the field. Their leading scorer is Courtney Porter, who is averaging 11.1 points and 3.4 rebounds per game, but she has taken more than double the shots of the next Falcon player. The Falcons play a lot of players, which is expected, and I think that they will improve throughout the course of season. It is important for the Lobos to take care of business early in this game and leave no doubt about who is going to win the game in the first quarter.

Team Stat Comparison

  • Points Per Game: Lobos 64.2; Falcons 47
  • Points Allowed Per Game: Lobos 60.2; Falcons 70.3
  • Field Goal Percentage: Lobos 38.2%; Falcons 33.1%
  • Three Point Percentage: Lobos 29.4%; Falcons 23.6%
  • Free Throw Percentage: Lobos 64.4%; Falcons 58.5%
  • Defensive Field Goal Percentage: Lobos 36.4%; Falcons 46%
  • Defensive Three Point Percentage: Lobos 30.3%; Falcons 33.8%
  • Rebounds Per Game: Lobos 41.3; Falcons 33.6
  • Assists Per Game: Lobos 13.7; Falcons 10.3
  • Turnovers Per Game: Lobos 15.9; Falcons 21.9
  • Turnovers Forced Per Game: Lobos 17.1; Falcons 16.1

As we can tell from the team stats, the Lobos are heavy favorites over the Falcons. If things go to plan, this should be a game the Lobos can work on things that will help them improve as a team. There should be no pressure on the Lobos, so they should be able to play with a great mindset.

Picks

After a great Saturday going 5-0 on my picks, I am now 27-12 in MW picks this season. Here are my picks for Wednesday’s action.

UNM at AFA

SDSU vs Nevada

BSU vs UNLV

FSU at WYO

CSU at CSU

Conference Standings

  • FSU 7-0
  • CSU 6-0
  • BSU 5-2
  • UNLV 4-3
  • UNM 3-3
  • USU 4-4
  • SJSU 4-4
  • WYO 3-5
  • Nevada 2-5
  • SDSU 1-6
  • AFA 0-7

Prediction

This should be one of the easiest games for the Lobos, I really don’t see a way for the Falcons can win this game. Of course, you can’t take any games for granted, but make no mistake, the Lobos are heavy favorites in this game. I set the odds of the Lobos winning this game at 98% with the finals score being 74-48. That said, the final score isn’t as important as just getting the win and the team growth that comes from this game.

Game Info

Who: New Mexico (10-7, 3-3) vs. AFA (0-18, 0-7)

Where: Clune Arena, Colorado Springs, Colorado

When: Wednesday January 27, 7 PM MT

Radio: 610 AM

Stream: Campus Insiders