Women’s Basketball vs. Boise State Preview

by Zach

The Lobos (11-7, 4-3) continued their winning ways against Air Force on Wednesday night with a 63-33 win. While there isn’t much to take away from the game for the Lobos, as they clearly outclassed the Falcons, they were able to play everyone minutes and keep anyone from playing more than 22 minutes. The Lobos will have a huge step up in competition today when they take on third-place Boise State Broncos (13-6, 6-2). This is a rematch of last year’s Mountain West Tournament Title Game, which was won by the Broncos. This is a very important home game for the Lobos to help with seeding, especially as it is becoming more unlikely that the Lobos will be able to challenge for the regular season title with Fresno State and Colorado State both still being undefeated in league play.

A key part of the game to watch for the Lobos will be the bench production, as the Lobos need their bench to have a significant impact on this game. In fact, the team that gets the best bench production will go a long way into deciding who will win this game. It is important for Jaisa Nunn to build off her last couple of games and be an impact player in this one. The guards off of the Lobo bench need to bring great energy and be able to knock down a few outside shots. If the Lobo bench is able to do these things, it will put pressure on the Broncos’ bench and starters to step up their play.

The most important part to this game, to me, is Khadijah Shumpert staying out of foul trouble. We have seen over and over this year that when Shumpert is very good, the Lobos are a tough team to beat. However, when she gets into foul trouble, Coach Sanchez has to change her rotation and replace one of her best players with a less impactful player. If Shumpert stays out of foul trouble, I expect a big game from the Lobo senior in this important game.

Boise State Broncos

The Broncos are led by head coach Gordy Pressnel, who is in his eleventh year at Boise State. During his time at Boise State, the Broncos moved from the WAC to join the Mountain West halfway through his tenure and have now completely adjusted to the tougher league. The Broncos are coming off a 22-11 season, where they went 11-7 in conference play before winning the MW Tournament to get the automatic bid into the NCAA Tournament. The Broncos are having a better start to the season than last year, but they are in the same position the Lobos are: needing to win the MW Tournament to have a chance in the NCAA Tournament.

Three players lead the Broncos on the court this season, each averaging over 13 point a game. The leading scorer for the Broncos is Brooke Pahukoa who is averaging 15.9 points and 5.5 rebounds per game. Pahukoa has shot three-pointers very well this season at 45.5%. Shalen Shaw is the Broncos second leading scorer and leading rebounder, averaging 13.4 points and 8.9 rebounds per game. The third leading scorer is Miquelle Askew, who is averaging 13.2 points and 5.5 rebounds per game.

The other Broncos player to keep an eye on is their point guard, Yaiza Rodriguez who is averaging 7.6 points and over 5 assists per game. Rodriguez has been a little turnover prone, averaging over 4 turnovers a game, so if the Lobos can force her into turnovers, it will help the Lobos chances in winning this game.

Team Stat Comparison

  • Points Per Game: Lobos 64.2; Broncos 70.5
  • Points Allowed Per Game: Lobos 58.7; Broncos 61.7
  • Field Goal Percentage: Lobos 38.8%; Broncos 43.2%
  • Three Point Percentage: Lobos 29.5%; Broncos 34%
  • Free Throw Percentage: Lobos 64.4%; Broncos 76.2%
  • Defensive Field Goal Percentage: Lobos 35.9%; Broncos 38.7%
  • Defensive Three Point Percentage: Lobos 29.8%; Broncos 28.4%
  • Rebounds Per Game: Lobos 41.2; Broncos 38.3
  • Assists Per Game: Lobos 13.8; Broncos 15.5
  • Turnovers Per Game: Lobos 15.6; Broncos 16.3
  • Turnovers Forced Per Game: Lobos 17.1; Broncos 17.2

As we can tell from the team stats, the teams match up pretty evenly, with the Lobos having a slight edge defensively and the Broncos having a slight edge on offense. This should be a tight game and one that will help us understand the pecking order in the MW.

Picks

After a good Wednesday, where I went 4-1 on my picks, I have improved to 31-13 in MW picks this season. Here are my picks for Saturday’s action.

UNM vs BSU

UNLV at SDSU

USU at Nevada

SJSU at AFA

CSU vs WYO

Conference Standings

  • FSU 8-0
  • CSU 7-0
  • BSU 6-2
  • UNM 4-3
  • UNLV 4-4
  • USU 4-4
  • SJSU 4-5
  • WYO 3-6
  • Nevada 3-5
  • SDSU 1-7
  • AFA 0-8

Prediction

To me this is a toss-up game, so they edge might go to the Lobos since they are the home team. I do think these are two evenly-matched teams, which means that the outcome of the game will come down to which team makes the plays in the big moments. I put the odds of the Lobos winning this game at 54%, with the boost coming from being the home team. I can see the game going either way but I think the Lobos will be able to pull out a win in a close contest, with the final score being 66-62.

Game Info

Who: New Mexico (11-7, 4-3) vs. BSU (13-6, 6-2)

Where: WisePies Arena AKA The PIT, Albuquerque, NM

When: Saturday January 30th, 2 PM MT

Radio: 610 AM

Stream: Campus Insiders