Just a couple of weeks ago, the Lobos went up to Boise State and beat the Broncos, taking control of second place in the conference in the process. Tomorrow night, the Broncos will be looking to return the favor, with that second place position once again going to the winner. This is an important game for both teams, so expect a hard-fought, intense battle.
A Little about Boise State
It wasn’t so long ago that the Lobos played Boise State, so most of what we covered in our preview of that game still holds. Since that game, the Broncos have gone 2-2, with their two wins coming at home to Utah State and Wyoming and their two losses coming on the road to Air Force and Colorado State. The Colorado State game was particularly crushing for the Broncos because, quite frankly, they won that game. At the end of the first overtime with the score tied, James Webb hit a deep three at the buzzer to seemingly win the game. However, the official review determined that he took too long to get the shot off, which means that it didn’t count and that the game would go to double-overtime, where the deflated Broncos lost. However, it turns out that the stopwatch they used in the review wasn’t calibrated correctly and that the shot should have counted after all. This ended up drawing some national attention and, along with what happened to the Lobos in the SDSU game, MWC officiating has been a bit of a punchline recently.
To Boise’s credit, they were able to put their disappointment behind them to bounce back in their last game, taking control against Wyoming in the second half to cruise to a 94-71 victory. In that game, they were stellar offensively, making 64.7% of their twos, 41.7% of their threes, and 87.0% of their free throws. That they can break out for those kinds of performances is exactly what makes them so scary as a team, and also what made some people pick them to be the favorites in the conference.
The most noticeable difference that we’ll (probably) see from the Broncos compared to the last time out is in the starting lineup. For the past two games, Anthony Drmic and Nick Duncan have come off the bench while Montigo Alford and Robin Jorch have taken their place, for some reason that I can’t figure out. Realistically, that hasn’t changed too much about them, as both Drmic and Duncan are still playing a lot and Jorch has yet to play more than 14 minutes in a game all season (mostly because he’s a fouling machine). Alford seems to be playing more than ever, however, partially due to his 25 point performance against CSU in which he went 7-11 from three. It seems unlikely that he’ll be able to replicate that performance, but he’s clearly a guy who can get hot.
As for some of their other guys, Webb is still their best player and he’s coming off a 21 point, 11 rebound game against Wyoming. Keeping him in check seems to be one of the best ways to beat the Broncos, as the Lobos did up in Boise, so expect the Lobos to limit his opportunities. Mikey Thompson has been playing pretty well recently and has probably their second-best, although I’d expect Drmic and Duncan to get a little more attention from the commentators. Lonnie Jackson has been on a hot streak from deep for about the past month, so the Lobos will need to make sure to keep track of him at all times around the perimeter. As we saw up in Boise, he’s got a lot of range and can almost single-handedly shoot the Broncos back into the game.
Scattered Thoughts
- If you followed along with us during the football season, I occasionally did a quick and dirty simulation using estimated win probabilities to get a sense of what the Lobos’ chances were to make a bowl game (ended up being 100%!). Now that we’re getting to the end of the season, I figured that I might do the same sort of thing to see what the likelihood of various finishes are based on projections. To do this, I used kenpom.com’s estimated win probabilities for each of the remaining six games (67% vs. BSU, 74% at AFA, 51% at CSU, 75% vs. FSU, 57% vs. SDSU, and 44% vs NEV). For each simulated season, I effectively flipped a weighted coin for each game using those probabilities and counted up the number of wins the Lobos ended up. I did this a million times to get a good sense of the distribution, which you can see in the plot below.
All of this gives the Lobos about a 5% chance of going 6-0, a 20% chance of going 5-1, and a 33% chance of going 4-2. Those would all be pretty good outcomes and, depending on who those wins come against, should ensure that the Lobos finish in the top three in the conference. - Now that we have a clearer sense of what the conference landscape looks like, it’s worth keeping track of what’s happening in the other Mountain West games. In doing so, I find that I definitely have rooting interests in each game based on what will help the Lobos the most. I think the goal for the team is to either win the conference (no kidding…), or to be on the other side of the bracket from SDSU (meaning 2nd or 3rd place). So, here are my rooting interests for the other games on Tuesday and Wednesday:
- Air Force over UNLV: I wouldn’t complain about UNLV dropping to 8th and playing SDSU in the first round of the tourney.
- Wyoming over Fresno State: Does the double duty of moving WYO past UNLV and distancing FSU from UNM.
- SJSU over Nevada: Nevada is another team that is lurking just behind the Lobos, so I’d like some more distance from them too.
- Utah State over CSU: Might as well try to drop UNLV to 9th while we’re at it.
Prediction
This is a matchup between two very evenly-matched teams, so I’d expect it to go down to the wire. I think that the Lobos’ defense will end up determining who comes out on top. If they can guard the perimeter well and limit Boise’s open looks, I think that they’ll get the win. However, if they allow some of the Boise shooters to get hot, this game might become a shootout and I don’t know if that plays to the Lobos’ favor. With the Lobos playing at home, and having shown that they can beat the Broncos already, I’ll take UNM to win 85-81.
Game Info
Who: UNM Lobos (15-10, 8-4) vs Boise State Broncos (17-9, 8-5)
Where: WisePies Arena AKA The Pit, Albuquerque, NM
When: Saturday, February 17, 2016 at 8:00pm MT
Radio: 770 KKOB
TV: CBS Sports Network