After an amazing, memorable win against Boise St., the Lobos now turn their attention to a two-game road trip through Colorado. The first stop is against Air Force, who the Lobos beat 84-55 a few weeks ago. However, that was the Road Falcons and this will be the Home Falcons. Believe me, they’re completely different teams.

A Little about Air Force

As mentioned in the preview for the last time these two teams met, the Falcons have been having a bit of a rough season. They’re just a game out of last place in the conference and have yet to win an MWC game on the road all season. However, they’re at home this time, where they’re a much better team than they are anywhere else. At Clune Arena, they’ve gone 11-4 for the season and 4-3 in conference play. On the road, they’ve only gone 2-10, including a 0-7 mark in conference play.

Since the last time the Lobos and the Falcons played, Air Force has gone 3-3, with all three wins coming at home and all three losses coming on the road. The home wins have been solid, too, as they came against Wyoming, Boise State, and UNLV. The main reason for their success at home seems to be that they tend to play much better defense there. That may or may not be an actual trend, but if it is, the Lobos will need to be really effective executing their offense if they’re going to come out with a win.

There have been a few recent changes to their starting lineup, with guard CJ Siples replacing the injured Trevor Lyons, post Frank Toohey replacing Zach Moer, and guard Jacob Van replacing Kyle Broekhuis. Siples has been pretty good since he moved into the starting lineup, scoring in the double-digits three of the five games. He’s also had some impressive rebounding numbers for his position and has been better at distributing the ball. Toohey has also been playing well in his five games in the starting lineup, averaging over 9 points and 6 rebounds per game. He’s been particularly effective at drawing fouls, so the Lobo posts will need to make sure they don’t get into foul trouble. Van moved into the starting lineup two games ago and has exploded for 38 points over those two games, which was a complete shock, given that he had never scored more than 4 points against a D-1 opponent previously. Clearly, he’s been great the past two games, but I have no idea what to expect out of him in this one. He’s not one the Lobos can sleep on though.

For the other starters, Hayden Graham has probably been the Falcon’s best player for the whole season, as he’s not only one of the most athletic players on the team, he’s one of the most experienced. He was the Falcon’s leading scorer last time they played the Lobos, but he had to work hard for his 14 points. He tends to attack the basket, but he’s also a threat from deep. The other starter is Zach Kocur, who is counted on being their sharpshooter, but hasn’t quite lived up to those expectations this season. He’s been heating up recently though, so the Lobos will need to make sure that he doesn’t get comfortable behind the arc.

Scattered Thoughts

• Anthony Mathis has seen sporadic playing time over the past six games, but last time UNM and AFA faced each other, he torched the Falcons to the tune of 16 points on 4-5 shooting, including 3-4 from three and 5-5 from the line. I know that he remembers it, that Coach Neal remembers it, and I’m sure AFA remembers it too. I’d expect him to get some run on Saturday, so we’ll see if the Falcons can contain him this time.
• As mentioned last time out, I find myself watching the other Mountain West games and rooting for one of the teams simply because the outcome helps out the Lobos. So, here are my rooting interests for the games on Saturday and Sunday:
  • Wyoming over CSU: A CSU loss would give the Lobos a great chance of being a top-five seed in the conference tournament, which would keep them out of a play-in game. Plus, it would let WYO keep pace with UNLV (remember, I want to see UNLV and SDSU face each other early in Vegas).
  • Utah State over Fresno State: Keeps FSU away from the Lobos and moves the Aggies closer to UNLV.
  • UNLV over Nevada: I could go either way on this one, but giving the Lobos a little bit more of a cushion over the Wolfpack is slightly preferable to letting there be a better chance that UNLV and SDSU will have to face each other in the tournament.
  • SJSU over SDSU: The only way the Lobos are going to catch the Aztecs in the standings is if they get some help from the other teams in the conference. Might as well start with the Spartans picking up an unlikely road win.

Prediction

Played anywhere else, I’d expect the Lobos to dominate the Falcons, just like they did last month in the Pit. However, in Colorado Springs, it becomes a much bigger question. I do think that the Lobos are showing signs of being a team on a mission, so I don’t expect them to fall into the same trap some teams do and underestimate the Falcons. Because of that, I still think the Lobos will win 72-64.

Game Info

Who: UNM Lobos (16-10, 9-4) vs Boise State Broncos (13-14, 4-10)

Where: Clune Arena, Colorado Springs, CO

When: Saturday, February 20, 2016 at 12:00pm MT

Radio: 770 KKOB

TV: Root Sports