After a disappointing loss at Air Force, the Lobos now turn their attention to Colorado State. CSU has been struggling recently, but strange things, both good and bad, seem to happen to the Lobos at Moby Arena, so it should be an entertaining game. Four games left before the MWC Tournament. Let’s do this.

A Little About Colorado State

Here we are: the last team in the conference that the Lobos haven’t faced. The Colorado State Rams are a team that have had a really difficult season, both on and off the court. Head coach Larry Eustachy, who is somehow only in his fourth year at CSU, has seen a team that was ranked in the top-25 at one point last season struggle its way through a 14-13 season, including 6-8 in MWC play. During that time, we’ve seen him criticized by former players, lose his best player to injury, and see another player suffer a horrible personal tragedy. This has certainly not been the season that anyone in Ft. Collins was hoping for.

The biggest story for the Rams this year was about junior college transfer Emmanuel Omogbo, who tragically lost his parents, a nephew, and a niece in a house fire last month. He has continued to play for the Rams, who have done a great job of rallying around him as a community, but I can’t imagine what he must be going through. If you haven’t read it already, this is a good, and heartbreaking, article from CBS Sports on the subject.

On the court, CSU lost their best player, Gian Clavell, for the season with a hand injury in only their 10^th game of the season. Clavell was having a fantastic season, averaging about 21 points and 7 rebounds per game, so it’s easy to wonder what this team would have been like if he were healthy. Especially given that their season has been littered with a bunch of close calls. Of the nine losses they’ve had since Clavell was injured, seven of them were within 7 points, with only their last two games coming by more. Let’s say they win half of the six conference games that fall into that category. They’d be 9-5 in conference play, which would have them tied for 2^nd with the Lobos and Fresno St. (The only two teams they haven’t played yet, coincidently). Instead, they are 6-8 and are in danger of slipping as far down as 9^th or 10^th place.

So without Clavell, the Rams have mostly been sticking to the same starting lineup: F Omogbo, F Tiel Daniels, G Joe De Ciman, G Antwan Scott, and, recently, G Prentiss Nixon. Nixon took over for G John Gillon about a month ago, but Gillon still plays quite a bit. In fact, CSU only really goes about 8 deep, with G JD Paige and F Fred Richardson each getting about 10-15 minutes a game.

Their two best players have been Scott and Daniels. Scott is a 6’2” senior who can really shoot the three. He’s taking almost 7 attempts per game from deep and is making 41.1% of them, meaning he’s as big of a threat as anyone in the conference. He’s also a pretty decent rebounder for his size, picking up 4.2 boards per game. Daniels is a 6’7” post player who is really efficient around the rim. He’s shooting 61.9% from the field, only taking twos all season. He’s also a really good offensive rebounder, which has helped him get a lot of easy second-chance points.

Omogbo is a 6’8” forward who will occasionally try to stretch the defense out. However, he’s not a great shooter from range, so he ends up getting most of his baskets by attacking the rim and by earning trips to the free throw line. He’s also one of the best rebounders in the conference by advanced metrics, which means that the Lobos will need to do a good job of boxing out both him and Daniels. De Ciman is a 6’6” wing who mostly hangs out around the perimeter, which is where he is most effective. He’s shooting 38.7% from deep, which means that he’s another guy who the Lobo defense can’t lose track of. Yet another one is Nixon, who is shooting 41.9% from beyond the arc. The 6’2” freshman guard has cooled off in conference play, only shooting 33%, but he’s also out there to stretch out the defense. Gillon, who isn’t starting but plays enough minutes that he might as well, is a 6’0” junior guard who is probably the best distributor on the team. He is also really adept at getting to the free throw line, where he is an 89.8% shooter on the season. If you think we’re surprised when Elijah misses a free throw, it’s downright stunning when Gillon does.

As a whole, Colorado State is a team with a lot of firepower on offense, but is terrible on defense. According to KenPom.com, CSU has the 73^rd best offense in the country, but the 318^th ranked defense. That has led to many of their games being high-scoring affairs. As you’d expect from the player descriptions, the Rams are best from three-point range, which is where they get a big chunk of their points. They’re also really good at taking care of the ball and at getting offensive boards. However, on defense, they don’t turn the ball over and they allow teams to shoot a high percentage from all over the court. If the Lobos run their offense well, they should have plenty of open looks and opportunities for easy buckets. If they can convert those chances, they should be able to score a lot of points. With that in mind, the main priority should be to slow the Rams down on offense. If they can do that, they have a good shot at coming back home with a win.

Scattered Thoughts

• One thing that I’ve been wondering recently is if Coach Neal is starting to play the long game with this roster. After the Boise State/UNLV/SDSU stretch, where only six guys got significant minutes in each of those games, Noodles has started to play 10 or 11 guys each game. After that stretch of games, it became clear that SDSU was most likely going to win the conference regular season, so preparing for the tournament became a priority. That means not riding the starters too much and giving the bench more minutes so they can develop. I think that we’ve seen improved play out of the bench in the past few games, so if that’s what he’s doing, it could have the double effect of improving the Lobos’ chances in the conference tournament, and setting things up for the team to have a great season next year.
• At this point, we know that we can rule out an at-large bid to the NCAA tournament and we can also probably rule out a bid to the NIT. Now, I know that most Lobo fans would be disappointed for this team to wind up in one of the lesser tournaments, like the CBI, but I’m of the opinion that if the team gets the chance to play some more, that could only be a good thing. Most of the team will be returning next year, so playing in any tournament would not only let them practice as a team a little longer, it would give them some good experience by playing in the postseason, no matter what tournament that entails. Geoff Grammer had an article in the Journal today that made it seem like the program feels the same way, so it’s good that they’re already starting to make plans. Hopefully they just win the MWC Tournament and make this all a moot point anyway.

Rooting Interests

As I’ve been doing the past couple of times out, I find myself watching the other Mountain West games and rooting for one of the teams because the outcome helps out the Lobos. So, here are my rooting interests, and rationale for those interests, for the games on Saturday and Sunday:

• UNLV over Boise St.: Of the teams in the hunt for second place, Boise is the one that scares me the most (and the one the Lobos don’t play again), so the Lobos will need some help to keep them at bay. Plus, at this point, it seems more likely that UNLV sneaks into the 5 seed than it does for them to drop to 8^th, both outcomes would (hopefully) put them on the same side of the bracket as SDSU and away from the Lobos. A seeding of 1: SDSU, 2: UNM, 3: FSU, 4: BSU, 5: UNLV, 6: Nevada, 7: CSU, 8: WYO, 9: USU, 10: AFA, 11: SJSU would be a really nice draw for the Lobos, I think.
• Air Force over Fresno St.: With Fresno currently tied with the Lobos for second place, an Air Force win would ensure that the Lobos would still be at least tied for second going into their matchup on Saturday.
• Utah State over Nevada: A Nevada loss would give the Lobos a better chance of being a top-3 seed in the tournament, and this helps us towards that dream scenario.
• Wyoming over SDSU: The only way the Lobos get a share of the regular season championship is if they win out and SDSU loses out. Realistically, that scenario is pretty unlikely and this game won’t have much of an impact on the Lobos (aside from figuring out the seeding at the lower end of the conference).

Prediction

The main thing that worries me about this game is that the Lobos haven’t done a particularly good job of bouncing back when they have a road game following a disappointing loss. However, because I am an eternal optimist, I like to think that they are starting to develop some more maturity and leadership within the team that will help them avoid another letdown. Still, it should be a close, high-scoring game, so I’ll pick the Lobos to win 85-82.

Game Info

What: UNM Lobos (16-11, 9-5) at CSU Rams (14-13, 6-8)

Where: Moby Arena, Ft. Collins, CO

When: Tuesday, February 22, 2016 at 8pm MT

Radio: 770 KOB

TV: CBS Sports Network