Men’s Basketball at Nevada Preview

by Jono

There’s no way around it: the Lobos are on a major skid right now. They’ve lost four straight, managed to go from 2nd to 5th in the conference, and have seen a bunch of fans turn on them. The last time this happened – back in December, when they went on the worst trip to Hawaii ever – the Lobos banded together to pull out a nice win at home against Nevada. Coincidently, next on the schedule: Nevada. Let’s see if history can repeat itself.

Catching up with Nevada

Just as they started the conference season, the Lobos find themselves desperately needing to pick up a win against Nevada. In that game, the Lobos were able to take control early and hang on despite a great second half performance from Nevada’s Marqueze Coleman. The Wolf Pack were able to bounce back from that loss, though, to wind up in 4th place in the conference at 10-7. That also means that in all likelihood, this game is to determine who gets to wear their home jerseys next week in the 4-5 game at the MWC Tournament when these teams see each other for the third time.

One wrinkle to this game is the health of Coleman. He suffered a bad ankle sprain in their game against Utah State last Wednesday and hasn’t played since. It sounds like the injury is more serious than they anticipated, so it’s unclear how long he’ll be out. If this game were played in Albuquerque, I would guess that he wouldn’t play so he can rest for the tournament, but given that it’s his senior night out in Reno, it could go either way. He’s been their best player this year, averaging 16.9 points, 5.0 rebounds, 3.6 assists, and 1.7 steals per game in league play, so his absence could be the difference between Nevada being able to make a run in the tournament, and them struggling in the first round.

Without Coleman, the Wolf Pack have been starting Tyron Criswell, who had basically been playing starter’s minutes anyway. He’s a 6’3” guard who, although he hasn’t been impressive from deep, does a good job attacking the basket and getting to the free throw line. The guy who has slid into the rotation the last couple of games is 6’0” freshman guard, Juwan Anderson, who has come off the bench the past two games after barely playing at all the rest of the season. He hasn’t seen the court all that often and hasn’t been asked to do much when he has, but as of right now he seems to profile as a traditional point guard.

The other starters are the same as the last time the Lobos faced them: DJ Fenner, Cam Oliver, Lindsay Drew, and Elijah Foster. Oliver has been really good for them this season, likely either being the winner or runner-up for conference freshman of the year with his 12.5 points and 10.0 rebounds per game in conference play. Fenner is a shooter of sorts, although he’s had a rough year behind the line. He shoots 4.7 threes per game, but only makes 30.4% of them. Drew and Foster have been inconsistent this season, but they’ve both shown the ability to score in the double-digits and grab a bunch of rebounds. Drew also profiles as a good defender, so we’ll see how he does trying to stop EB.

As a whole, the Wolf Pack play really good defense, but they struggle on offense. They are a really poor shooting team, even ranking as the second-worst in the country behind the arc, but they try to make up for it by getting to the line a lot. That might be an issue with Coleman out, as he’s one of the best at doing it. On defense, they do a good job of not allowing their opponents to shoot at a high percentage and are one of the top teams in the country at blocking shots. That comes from their aggressive scheme, which also leads them to a lot of fouls. The Lobos might be able to take advatage of that and get into the Wolf Pack bench, which is not particularly deep and doesn’t have much size. If they can do that, I like their chances to go into next week on a high note.

Scattered Thoughts

  • There have been times of frustration this season, for sure, but one of the things I love about college basketball is how I find myself getting attached to the players as they go through the program. One such example this year is EB, who I think is a straight-up warrior with a ton of fight in him. Case in point:

  • Maybe I haven’t been paying much attention, but I love that Anthony Mathis, even though he hasn’t been playing much, has carved out a role as the guy who excessively celebrates every big play his team makes. In my opinion, every bench needs that guy. I think that he’s got a lot of talent, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see some freshman go wild for a big Mathis three-ball sometime down the road.
  • The more I watch of Dane Kuiper, the more I like about his game. He seems to have a good grasp of the offense at this point, which means that he knows where he’s supposed to be. In the last game, there was one play in particular that sticks out to me where he was able to lose the defense and drift out for an open corner three. Even though he missed that shot, I’m sure that he’ll make a bunch in the future. He’s gotten better all-around as the season has gone on, which makes me excited to see what lies ahead for him.

Rooting Interests

As I’ve been doing the past couple of times out, I find myself watching the other Mountain West games and rooting for one of the teams because the outcome helps out the Lobos. So, here are my rooting interests, and rationale for those interests, for the games on Saturday and Sunday:

  • Fresno State over Utah State: Of the potential 8-9 seeds, Utah State is probably the best, which means that I want them there to ensure that SDSU doesn’t have an easy first-round matchup. This would also give Fresno State the 2 seed, which is fine. Either they’ll be the 2 seed and Boise the 3 or vice versa, so it shouldn’t matter too much to the Lobos (assuming they end up in the 4-5 game).
  • Air Force over Colorado State: Air Force is locked into the 10 seed, but CSU can finish anywhere from 7th to 9th. I think having them in the 8-9 game would be good, as SDSU has had a hard time against the Rams this year, even though they swept the season series. Making them do it a third time could be a tough challenge.
  • SDSU over UNLV: This game probably has the biggest impact of any on the Lobos (aside from the one they actually play in), as it could determine which seed the team ends up with. If the Lobos lose, UNLV can sneak past them for the 5 seed with a win. Of course, if the Lobos win, they end up with the 4 seed and all of this is academic anyway.
  • SJSU over Boise State: I don’t really care about this one, so I’ll go with the underdog again. Boise will probably cruise in this one, though.

Prediction

Nevada has been fairly up-and-down this season and are missing one of their best players, so I typically would be feeling pretty good about this game. However, the Lobos are in a major rut right now, so I don’t know what to expect out of them. If they can pull together and be the team that they have the potential to be, I would fully expect them to win. If they don’t, this might be another big loss. I’ll split the difference and predict Nevada to win in a close one, 75-73.

Game Info

What: UNM Lobos (16-14, 9-8) at Nevada Wolf Pack (18-11, 10-7)

Where: Lawlor Events Center, Reno, NV

When: Saturday, March 5, 2016 at 8pm MT

Radio: 770 KOB

TV: Root Sports