Women’s Basketball: MWC Tournament Preview

by Zach

The Lobos (16-13, 9-9) are on a two-game winning streak as they enter the Mountain West Tournament as the 5 seed. They will take on the 4th seeded SJSU Spartans (13-16, 11-7) at 3:30 MT on Tuesday in the quarterfinals. The two teams have already played twice this season (here’s the preview for the first game, and here’s the preview for the second), with the Lobos winning the game in Albuquerque by 14 and the Spartans winning the game in San José by one. Since the last meeting, SJSU is 3-2 in their last five games, while the Lobos are 4-2 in their last six games. The key to this game will be if the Lobos will be able to control the tempo, they have been able to do this in each of the first two meetings.

Team Stat Comparison:

  • Points Per Game: Lobos 61.7; Spartans 73.0
  • Points Allowed Per Game: Lobos 57.2; Spartans 73.6
  • Field Goal Percentage: Lobos 37.7%; Spartans 39.2%
  • Three Point Percentage: Lobos 28.5%; Spartans 32.3%
  • Free Throw Percentage: Lobos 64.4%; Spartans 69.4%
  • Defensive Field Goal Percentage: Lobos 36.7%; Spartans 40%
  • Defensive Three Point Percentage: Lobos 30.6%; Spartans 33.4%
  • Rebounds Per Game: Lobos 39.4; Spartans 40.6
  • Assists Per Game: Lobos 13.6; Spartans 14.6
  • Turnovers Per Game: Lobos 15; Spartans 16
  • Turnovers Forced Per Game: Lobos 17.8; Spartans 16.5

Tournament Seeding:

  1. CSU
  2. FSU
  3. BSU
  4. SJSU
  5. UNM
  6. UNLV
  7. USU
  8. SDSU
  9. WYO
  10. Nevada
  11. AFA

In the opening round of the tournament, WYO, Nevada and AFA lost to set up normal seeding in the quarterfinals (1 vs. 8, 2 vs. 7, 3 vs. 6, and 4 vs. 5). The Lobos will be on the same side of the brackets as SJSU, CSU and SDSU, with FSU, BSU, UNLV and USU on the other side. The quarterfinals will be played on Tuesday, the semifinals on Wednesday, and the championship on Friday.

Undefeated-in-conference CSU is the odds-on favorite in the field and should be in the NCAA Tournament even if they do lose. However, everyone else has to win the conference tournament to make the NCAA Tournament. It should be a fun tournament to see how it plays out.

UNM Records:

Here are the Lobos records against the teams that are still in the Tournament, in order of seeding:

CSU 0-1

FSU 0-2

BSU 1-1

SJSU 1-1

UNLV 1-1

USU 1-1

SDSU 1-1

As expected with a team that finished .500 in conference play they didn’t win against the top two seeds, although they did have a one-point loss to CSU and lost in OT against FSU in one of the games. Against each of the other five teams in the tournament, the Lobos went 1-1.

Keys for the Tournament:

There are many keys for the Lobos to make a run to win the tournament, but here are some of the biggest keys that come to mind:

  1. Khadijah Shumpert can’t get into foul trouble. This is very simple: the Lobos are a better team with Shumpert on the court and when she is playing, she is normally the team’s best player.
  2. Cherise Beynon and Bryce Owens have to shoot well. The Lobos have had times where they really struggle on offense, so getting consistent play from those two will be vital. Beynon and Owens are the two playmakers for the Lobos and take the most shots from the guard positions, so if they are able to knock down open shots, the Lobos could surprise some teams in the tournament.
  3. Play like there is no tomorrow. The Lobos are playing to continue their season, and the only way to do that is to keep on winning. There are two ways that teams in this position end up finishing their season: they play like they have nothing to lose or they play like their season is already over. The Lobos still have a chance to make the NCAA Tournament by winning the MWC Tournament, and it is unknown if they will be in another tournament if they don’t win.
  4. Jump on SJSU early so you can rest players in the second half. It is important to be as close to full strength against CSU in the semifinals on Wednesday. So with a quick turnaround, it would be great for the Lobos to be able to give Shumpert and Beynon rest in the game against SJSU.
  5. Who will step up? The Lobos need players to step up and have great tournaments. We know that Beynon and Shumpert have to be great, but the Lobos need role players to have impact in the tournament. Could it be Alexa Chavez two years in a row?
  6. How much fan support will the team have this year? It has been a huge advantage for the Lobos in the past to have by far the best fan support for the women’s tournament. It will be interesting to see how this number is impacted by the Lobo Men not being at the top of the conference, but we can still expect the Lobos to have the best fan support for both tourneys.

Game Info:

Who: #5 New Mexico Lobos vs. #4 San José State Spartans

When: March 8th, 2016

Where: Thomas and Mack Center, Las Vegas, Nevada

Time: 3:30 PM MT

Radio: 610 AM

Steam: Mountain West Network