It’s been a long season, but here we are: MWC Tournament week. No team has proven to be invincible in the conference this year, so this tournament feels as wide-open as it has ever been. Also, because no team seems to have a lock on an at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament, we have 11 teams who feel like they need to win out this week in order to make it to the Big Dance. All of that should make for a fun week.
Conference Overview
As we’ve done before, below is a plot of each team’s estimated offensive and defensive efficiency rating, according to www.kenpom.com. The black lines represent the average offensive and defensive rating of all 351 teams in D1 basketball, which means that any team to the right of the vertical line is above-average on offense, and any team below the horizontal line is above-average on defense. Any team that is below the red diagonal would likely be rate to be an above-average team overall.
As we can see, there isn’t a team that is dominant on both ends of the floor, although SDSU is one of the best defensive teams in the country. If we look at the number of teams around the red diagonal line, we see that there are a lot of teams who, although they might have different styles, are fairly evenly-matched. This means that just about any team can beat anyone else, which should make this be an exciting week of basketball. Although I have to think that SDSU is the most likely team to win the tournament, I also think that a lot of teams could look at this plot and think that they have as good a chance as anyone else.
Tournament Predictions
Feel free to keep track and see how poorly I do in my predictions!
First Round:
- Colorado St. over SJSU
- UNLV over Air Force
- Utah State over Wyoming
Quarterfinals:
- SDSU over Utah State
- UNM over Nevada
- Boise State over Colorado St.
- Fresno State over UNLV
Semifinals:
- SDSU over UNM
- Boise State over Fresno State
Finals:
- SDSU over Boise State
Team Capsules
1. San Diego State Aztecs
Record: 23-8 overall, 16-2 in conference
Key Players: Sr. Guard Winston Shepard; So. Guard Trey Kell; Fr. Guard Jeremy Hemsley
Games vs. UNM: 78-71 (OT) win at home, 83-56 win on road
Questions Going into Tourney: Can they make the NCAA Tournament without winning the conference tournament? In some ways, this feels like the biggest question facing the entire conference. SDSU is the only team that has any chance of getting an at-large bid on Selection Sunday, which means that the only way that the conference gets two bids is for someone else to win the tournament and them to be an at-large. There is absolutely no guarantee of that happening, as they are very much on the bubble right now. Their best chance would be to make it to the championship and then lose to Fresno State, as losing to just about anyone else in the conference would be considered another “bad loss” that they can’t afford given their resume. Of course, they could take all of the uncertainty out of the equation and win the tournament, which given the conference season they’ve had, that feels like a real possibility. Will their recent offensive improvements hold? Going into the conference season, they were a well-below average offensive team according to most advanced metrics. Now, they’re actually a little above average in conference play, mostly thanks to the improved play of Kell and Hemsley. With how dominant their defense has been, having an even average offense makes them the sort of team that not only can win the MWC Tournament, they could be one that wins a game or two in the NCAA Tourney.
2. Fresno State Bulldogs
Record: 22-9 overall, 13-5 in conference
Key Players: Sr. Guard Marvell Harris; Jr. Forward Karachi Edo; Jr. Forward Cullen Russo
Games vs. UNM: 77-62 loss at home, 92-82 win on road
Questions Going into Tourney: Will they keep their late-season momentum? The Bulldogs are on a six-game winning streak and have won 10 of their last 12, which makes them the hottest team in the conference. Now, four of those wins came by one point and another came in overtime, so they haven’t been overly dominant over that stretch, but they certainly have the confidence in themselves necessary to win out. Will their experience matter? Per KenPom.com, Fresno is the most experienced team in the conference, which tends to give teams an advantage this time of year. With three seniors and two juniors in the starting lineup, it feels like this might be the season that the program has been building towards, otherwise their window might slam shut.
3. Boise State Broncos
Record: 20-11 overall, 11-7 in conference
Key Players: Jr. Forward James Webb III; Sr. Guard Mikey Thompson; Sr. Guard Anthony Drmic
Games vs. UNM: 88-83 loss at home, 80-78 loss on road
Questions Going into Tourney: How healthy is James Webb? Webb has been limited the past few games, thanks to some nagging injuries, so how many minutes he can give the Broncos is up in the air. When healthy, he adds a different dimension to the Broncos than anyone else on the roster, and makes them a more complete team. If he can’t do that, they seem much more beatable. Can they get hot from beyond the arc? Would you believe that Boise finished 9th in the conference in terms of three point percentage? That feels strange to me, as they have several guys who have shown that they can light it up from deep, even if they haven’t been consistent all season. Still, they always present the danger of catching fire and shooting the other team out of the gym.
4. New Mexico Lobos
Record: 17-14 overall, 10-8 in conference
Key Players: So. Guard Elijah Brown; Jr. Forward Tim Williams, So. Guard Cullen Neal
Games vs. UNM: They beat themselves a few times, but otherwise, N/A
Questions Going into Tourney: Which Lobo team is going to show up? If I had to choose one word to summarize the Lobos’ season, I would have to go with “inconsistent.” They have had times that made me think that they were the best team in the conference, and times that made it seem like they couldn’t beat anyone. That means that they are fully capable of winning the tournament, but also fully capable of losing their first game. Will they play solid defense? Whenever the Lobos have had a prolonged losing streak, it seems to be rooted in their defense falling apart. If they want to win three games this weekend, they’ll have to play well on the defensive end, as they haven’t really proven that they can expect to win by simply outscoring their opponent in a shootout.
5. Nevada Wolf Pack
Record: 18-12 overall, 10-8 in conference
Key Players: Sr. Guard Marqueze Coleman; Sr. Guard Tyron Criswell; Fr. Forward Cam Oliver
Games vs. UNM: 71-66 loss at home, 88-76 loss on road
Questions Going into Tourney: Will Marqueze Coleman be able to play? Coleman has missed the Wolf Pack’s last three games with an ankle injury and his status still seems to be up in the air. Even if he does play, he might not be at 100%, which wouldn’t be good for them, as their offense tends to run through him. Can they beat the top teams in the conference? Nevada is a combined 1-6 against the four teams that finished ahead of them in the conference, who are the teams that they would likely need to beat if they are going to win the tournament. It feels like this would be an especially tall order if Coleman can’t go.
6. Colorado State Rams
Record: 16-15 overall, 8-10 in conference
Key Players: Sr. Guard Antwan Scott; Sr. Forward Tiel Daniels; Jr. Guard John Gillon
Games vs. UNM: 86-69 win at home
Questions Going into Tourney: Can they play enough defense to win? This season, the Rams were easily the best offensive team in the conference, and easily the worst on defense. Part of the problem was that they allowed their opponents to shoot a high percentage all over the court and, because they didn’t turn people over at a high rate, they allowed their opponents to take a lot of shots. However, when they have showed up on the defensive end, they’ve been fairly successful, so it’s not hard to imagine them pulling it together for at least a couple of games. Can they beat Boise again? Or for the first time, if you’re a Boise fan. The last time those two teams met, James Webb made a three at the end of the first overtime that was erroneously called back due to a timekeeping mishap. CSU ended up getting the win in the second overtime, thanks to a deflated Boise team, but I’m sure that both teams will have that game fresh in their memory if they meet again.
7. UNLV Rebels
Record: 17-14 overall, 8-10 in conference
Key Players: So. Guard Patrick McCaw; Sr. Guard Jerome Seagears; Fr. Center Stephen Zimmerman
Games vs. UNM: 86-74 win at home, 87-83 loss on road
Questions Going into Tourney: Do they have enough guys to make a run? Thanks to transfers, injuries, and an odd, late-season ineligibility, UNLV only has a handful of guys left on the roster that are actually on scholarship. In fact, they had to basically pull a former walk-on out of the stands in their last game just to have a few subs. four games in four days is grueling, so I have a hard time imagining that they won’t get worn out by Thursday, even. Can they take advantage of playing at home? The Rebels were 7-2 at home and 1-8 on the road in conference play. It was because of that fact that they were a really scary team for this year’s tournament until they started running out of players. Still, although it feels unlikely that they’ll win the whole tournament, I’m sure that Fresno State isn’t looking forward to potentially playing them on Thursday.
8. Wyoming Cowboys
Record: 14-17 overall, 7-11 in conference
Key Players: Sr. Guard Josh Adams; Jr. Guard Jason McManamen; Sr. Forward Alan Herndon
Games vs. UNM: 70-68 win on road
Questions Going into Tourney: Is there any way Josh Adams can drag them to a championship? After having a great MWC Tournament last year to lead the Cowboys to a title, Adams came back with a stellar senior season, managing to win a Player of the Year award. However, with the graduation of some important players, including Larry Nance Jr., Adams had to win several games almost singlehandedly. If they’re going to repeat, he’s going to have to have a monster tournament, as the supporting cast just isn’t what it was last year. I wouldn’t give him good odds of doing it, but he’s also the sort of guy I wouldn’t bet against. Do they have any bench depth? Just a few days ago, the program announced that five players are suspended for the tournament. Now, only two of those guys were players that saw any time on the floor, but a) those two were important reserves for the team and b) they don’t have much else sitting on the bench. They’re going to need some contributions from unexpected places if they’re going to have any success this week.
9. Utah State Aggies
Record: 15-14 overall, 7-11 in conference
Key Players: Sr. Guard Chris Smith; Jr. Forward Jalen Moore; Jr. Forward Lew Evans
Games vs. UNM: 80-72 win at home, 77-59 loss on road
Questions Going into Tourney: Can they shoot their way to a couple of wins? Utah State had a disappointing season, at least partially thanks to a surprise transfer right before the season started. However, they transformed themselves into a team that plays methodically and relies on hitting threes. They shot 37.8% from three for the whole season, which put them just behind the conference-leading Wyoming. If they can get hot, it doesn’t feel impossible for them to give anyone they face a run for their money. Is their recent improved play for real? In their final 7 games, the Aggies managed four wins and had three close losses, making them start to seem like the team they were predicted to be going into the season. In fact, if they had managed to find themselves on the other side of the bracket, I might have considered them a dark-horse contender in this tournament. However, they’re stuck facing Wyoming, who are not a great matchup for them, and if they win they get to face SDSU. They feel like a longshot at this point.
10. Air Force Falcons
Record: 14-17 overall, 5-13 in conference
Key Players: Sr. Center Zach Moer; Jr. Forward Hayden Graham; So. Guard Jacob Van
Games vs. UNM: 76-72 win at home, 84-55 loss on road
Questions Going into Tourney: Will their style of play frustrate opponents enough to get a win? Air Force is known around these parts for playing slowly, methodically, and a little dirty. That makes them difficult to play against in a tournament setting, given that their opponents might not have enough time to prepare. Plus, if they manage to get past UNLV, they’ll get to face Boise State, a team that they beat the one time they faced each other. Is Jacob Van for real? After barely playing most of the season, Van moved into the starting lineup for the Falcons’ last six games. Since then, he’s averaged 16.5 points per game, giving the Falcons the scoring threat they desperately needed once Trevor Lyons went down. Watching him, it doesn’t necessarily seem like he should be lighting other teams up, but so far he’s done just that. We’ll see if he can keep it up in the tournament.
11. San Jose State Spartans
Record: 9-21 overall, 4-14 in conference
Key Players: Fr. Forward Brandon Clarke, Sr. Forward Frank Rogers, Sr. Forward Princeton Onwas
Games vs. UNM: 83-64 loss at home, 74-58 loss on road
Questions Going into Tourney: Can they pull out a win? It’s hard to imagine looking at a 9-21 season and considering it a success, but given where the SJSU program was recently, this year was a nice step forward. They still are a ways behind most of the other teams in the conference, but they’re on the right track to catching up. So, like their win against Boise State in their last game of the season, a win against CSU would be a great late-season result for the Spartans that they can use to build on this offseason. Will Brandon Clarke have a breakout game? Some people’s eyebrows were raised when they saw Clarke win the MWC Sixth Man of the Year award, but I think that’s because not many people pay attention to SJSU. Clarke was one of the best freshmen in the conference, thanks to his combination of interior scoring and elite rebounding, particularly on the offensive end. He had a 21-10 game against Boise State on Saturday and a 14-15 game against Fresno State a month ago. If he can have that sort of game against CSU, he might not just help the Spartans to a win, he’ll put the rest of the league on notice.