Lobo Baseball vs. SDSU Series Preview

by Zach

The Lobos (27-12, 14-4) are coming off a great win Wednesday against Top-10 Texas Tech and will look to build on that this weekend. They return to Mountain West play with a three game home series against San Diego State (11-23, 4-8), which could give them an opportunity to expand their lead in the conference. In the first series between the two teams, the Lobos won the first two games, 5-3 and 4-2, before falling in the finale, 11-6. The first series was during Easter weekend, which meant that the games were played Thursday through Saturday, so the Lobos didn’t have their normal weekend rotation and Colton Thomson didn’t pitch in the series. The Lobos will have a huge advantage at the plate during this series, as the Aztecs only have one player hitting over .300, so it should be a good weekend for the Lobos and should keep their lead in the conference standings.

Scattered Thoughts:

  • Getting a win against Texas Tech was huge for the team and helps their chances of getting an at-large bid if they don’t win the conference tournament. Texas Tech is a Top-10 team, so that will be a win that most teams on the bubble for the NCAA Tournament won’t have.
  • How good has the middle infield been this season? Seniors Jared Holley and Dalton Bowers are having fantastic senior seasons and are a huge part of the Lobos’ success this season. Holley is now hitting .358 with 32 runs, 25 RBIs, 15 doubles, 1 triple and a home run, while Bowers is hitting .331 with 31 runs, 30 RBIs, 12 doubles, 2 triples and three home runs.
  • Due to Bowers’ great play, he is on the watch list for the Brooks Wallace award, which is given to the best shortstop in the nation.
  • Chris DeVito has been great for the Lobos this season and is starting to get on award watch lists himself. The Midseason Golden Spikes watch list, which is for the National Player of the Year, came out this week and DeVito was one of the players mentioned.
  • After having games where the Lobos ran out of position players, it is very important for the Lobos to get at least one former starter back from injury. Michael Eaton, who started the season as the starting second baseman, is starting to come back, which is good to see. The question will be if he will start, because you won’t take either Bowers or Holley out of the starting lineup the way they are playing. However, having Eaton back for depth will be huge for the final stretch of the season.
  • The Lobos have won all six of their conference series so far this season, including two home series sweeps. If the Lobos win their last four series it will be almost impossible for FSU to catch up.

San Diego State Aztecs:

Here is our look at the Aztecs program from the first series.

The Aztecs have struggled as an offensive ball club this season, with a team average of .270 and only one hitter hitting over .300. Alan Trejo is that player, leading the team with a .333 average and will be tasked with trying to get big hits for the Aztecs all weekend. Look for the Lobo pitching staff to make sure that Trejo doesn’t have a huge impact in this series. A good thing for the Lobo pitching staff is the Aztec offense doesn’t have much power in their lineup, meaning a struggling offense will have to string together hits to score runs.

The Aztec pitching staff has a team ERA 5.08 and has had a difficult time of finding two reliable starters after their Friday night starter. Harrison Pyatt is their best starting pitcher, even though he hasn’t won a game (0-3), he has pitched well in 46 1/3 innings with a 3.69 ERA with 34 Strikeouts compared to 17 walks. Saturday’s starts lately have gone to Marcus Reyes (0-4) with a 6.89 ERA in 47 innings with 41 strikeouts compared to 15 walks. Sunday’s starter has been Cody Thompson (1-6) with a 6.34 ERA with 38 1/3 innings with 21 strikeouts compared to 17 walks. If the Aztecs want to have a chance in this series, they are going to need to get good starts from all three of their starters.

Conference Standings:

  1. UNM 14-4
  2. FSU 12-6
  3. AFA 8-7
  4. Nevada 6-7
  5. UNLV 8-10
  6. SDSU 4-8
  7. SJSU 4-14

UNM has a two game lead on FSU, but due to the UNM sweep of FSU it is really a three game lead for the top seed in the conference tournament.

Series Prediction:

The first-place Lobos take on the sixth-place Aztecs, so the Lobos should be able to control the series, with their superior pitching and a much better offense than the Aztecs. I put the odds of the Lobos winning the series at 95% and 38% for the Lobos to get the series sweep. I feel good about this weekend, though, so I predict a series sweep to improve to 30-12 and 17-4 in conference play.

Game Info:

Who: New Mexico Lobos (27-12, 14-4) vs. San Diego State Aztecs (11-23, 4-8)

Where: Santa Ana Star Field, Albuquerque, New Mexico

When: Friday April 22th 6 PM MT, Saturday April 23th 2 PM MT, Sunday 24th 1 PM MT

Stream: MW Network/ Campus Insiders

Probable Starters:

Game 1: Carson Schneider (6-1, 3.76 ERA) vs. Harrison Pyatt (0-3, 3.69 ERA)

Game 2: Tyler Stevens (5-2, 4.37 ERA) vs. Marcus Reyes (0-4, 6.89 ERA)

Game 3: Colton Thomson (5-1, 2.91 ERA) vs. Cody Thompson (1-6, 6.34 ERA)