Mountain West Baseball Conference Tournament Preview

by Zach

At last, the long, slow grind of the Mountain West baseball regular season is behind us, and the joy and agony of postseason play is about to begin. On Wednesday morning, here in Albuquerque at Santa Ana Star Field, the conference tournament kicks off with the 6/7 play-in game between San Diego State and San Jose State and won’t stop until a champion is crowned over the weekend. It is pretty simple for all but maybe one or two teams (Fresno State and possibly New Mexico): win the tournament or your season is over.

This year’s field has three clear favorites, with a couple of long shots and two teams that could make the tournament challenging for the top seeds. Although there are seven teams in the field, in practice, this will be a six-team, double elimination tournament, as the loser of play-in game between the #6 and #7 seeds will be eliminated before anyone else starts playing. As far as the structure of the bracket goes, #1 seed Fresno State and #2 seed New Mexico will have first round byes, which is a huge advantage, as if you’re in that position, you can win the whole tournament by winning three straight games. For comparison, the other four teams in the bracket are in the position where if they lose their first game, they’ll have to win six straight games to take home the title. Clearly, this setup is designed to favor the teams at the top of the standings.

We won’t know who the Lobos will play until all of Wednesday’s games are over, as they’ll take on the higher seeded team that won their matchup Wednesday afternoon, while Fresno State will play the lower seeded team. This should be a great tournament with a lot on the line for all of the teams, perhaps especially the Lobos, so hopefully the Lobo fan base will show up in full force to help the Lobos make the NCAA Tournament.

Seeds:

  1. Fresno State (21-9 MWC, 36-20 Overall)
  2. New Mexico (20-10 MWC, 35-21 Overall)
  3. Nevada (20-10 MWC, 33-22 Overall)
  4. UNLV (14-16 MWC, 24-30 Overall)
  5. Air Force (12-18 MWC, 28-25 Overall)
  6. SDSU (11-19 MWC, 19-36 Overall)
  7. SJSU (7-23 MWC, 17-38 Overall)

Lobo Lane Tournament Odds:

I would have all three of Fresno State, New Mexico and Nevada at the same odds, but with Nevada having to win at least one more game that knocks down their odds a little. SDSU and SJSU should be viewed together, since only one of those teams will make the field.

  1. Fresno State 25%
  2. New Mexico 25%
  3. Nevada 20%
  4. UNLV 13%
  5. Air Force 12%
  6. SDSU 3%
  7. SJSU 2%

Tournament Outlooks:

Fresno State: The plan is simple for the Bulldogs: ride the pitching of Ricky Tyler Thomas, Jimmy Lambert, and their top relief pitcher Tim Borst to the title. Thomas and Lambert have been two of the three best starting pitchers in the Mountain West this season, which bodes well for their tournament chances. With that type of dominant pitching, the Bulldogs could make it an easy tournament win if they are able to get great offensive production, led by their top hitters, Brody Russell and Aaron Arruda.

New Mexico: The Lobos might be the most complete team in the field, but whether or not they’ll be able to put it all together this week remains the big question. To win, they’ll need to get great starts from Colton Thomson, Tyler Stevens and Carson Schneider, while getting great offensive production from Mountain West Triple Crown winner Carl Stajduhar and Chris DeVito. In fact, if that happens, it wouldn’t be hard to see them sweep the tournament. One big factor is whether or not Jared Holley is able to be himself after spraining his ankle this past weekend. He’s had a solid season for the Lobos, and having him at full strength would give the team a real boost this week.

Nevada: If the Wolf Pack are able to use a lesser pitcher to beat the winner of the SDSU/SJSU, it wouldn’t seem out of the question for them to be able to use their Weekend rotation to beat the Lobos and Bulldogs for the tournament title. Pitching is the big question mark for the Wolf Pack, as they have a team ERA of 4.91 heading into the tournament, but if they get solid starting pitching, it will allow their great lineup to take them to the title. If they end up winning the whole thing, it will likely be because TJ Friedl, Cole Krzmarzick, and Miles Mastrobuoni had big weekends.

UNLV: If the Rebels are able to beat Air Force (who might be saving Griffin Jax for the Fresno State game), they might be able to catch Fresno State off guard, particularly if the Bulldogs are saving their top arms for down the road. However, even if they do, I don’t know if they have enough firepower to pull out at least four wins over four days. My guess is that they get a great start from Kenny Oakley, but eventually run out of steam and fall short of the Title.

Air Force: If the Falcons are able to get a good start in the opener Wednesday against UNLV with someone not named Griffin Jax, then they could be a terrifying matchup for the top two seeds in the next round. It would be very possible for Jax to pitch a gem on Thursday, which would give the Falcons hope to win the tournament. But, like UNLV, they run out of pitching pretty quickly, which makes their chances of winning beyond the first couple of games seem less and less likely.

SDSU: The Aztecs are certainly capable, and perhaps likely, to beat SJSU to make the tournament, but their stay will probably be short when they have to face the Wolf Pack, who I think should be able to handle them easily. In my mind, the Aztecs will need nothing short of a miracle to have a chance to win the title.

SJSU: The Spartans are in the same situation that the Aztecs are in, having to first win a game to make the double elimination portion of the tournament. If they win their opener, they will be long shots to win their first game in the bracket, and a loss there would force them to have to win six straight games to win the title.

Players to Watch:

Part of me wants to just list the Lobo roster, so in lieu of that, here are the non-Lobos to watch in this week’s tournament:

Pitchers:

  • Griffin Jax, AFA
  • Ricky Tyler Thomas ,FSU
  • Jimmy Lambert, FSU
  • Tim Borst, FSU

Hitters:

  • TJ Friedl, Nevada
  • Cole Krzmarzick, Nevada
  • Miles Mastrobuoni, Nevada
  • Brody Russell, FSU
  • Aaron Arruda, FSU
  • Payton Squier, UNLV
  • Bradley Haslam, AFA
  • Adam Groesbeck, AFA
  • Tyler Jones, AFA

Tournament Info:

All games will be played at Santa Ana Star Field and will be streamed on the Mountain West Network. The tourney will run from Wednesday May 25th thru Sunday May 29th, if the champion isn’t crowned Saturday night. There will be three games on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday with game times at 11 AM, 3 PM and 7 PM. The Lobos will play the 7 PM on Thursday and if they win, they would play again Friday at 7 PM. If they lose, they’ll either play the 11 AM game or the 3 PM game, depending on how Fresno State does in their game. Your Lobo Pride Pass will not get you into the ball park, so you will either need to purchase a Tournament Pass ($50) or single-day tickets ($15 for adults, $10 for kids and seniors) to get in.