Aaaand… we’re back. After eight months of waiting and anticipation, we finally get to see how the Lobos are going to build on last year’s successful season. It all starts Thursday night, with – as it did last year – an FCS opponent. This time it’s South Dakota, a veteran team with a new coach who will certainly come here looking to pull off an upset. Still, I’m expecting some fireworks from the Lobos.

A Little About South Dakota

The South Dakota Coyotes – annoyingly pronounced “KY-yotes” – are coming off 5-6 season, including a 3-5 showing in the Missouri Valley Football Conference. Although the losing record was a disappointment, it did end up being their best season since 2011 and it included a signature win against North Dakota State – the eventual FCS champions. Their coach, Joe Glenn – a former Wyoming coach – retired at the end of the season, which left the program looking for a new man in charge. They found that man in Western Illinois’ head coach Bob Nielson. Previous to his stint at the fellow MVFC university, Nielson built a DII powerhouse at Minnesota Duluth. Although he didn’t reach those heights at Western Illinois, the team did show improvement over his three-year tenure.

What will be interesting to see is how quickly the Coyotes adapt to their new coach’s style. Last season, they were somewhat of a slow, rush-heavy offense, executing about 69 plays per game and running about 60% of the time. At Western Illinois, however, Nielson ran 89 plays per game while calling running plays 52%. Part of that will depend on what Nielson decides to do at quarterback, I think. If he goes with returning starter Ryan Saeger, my guess is that it will be relatively balanced, as Saeger showed the ability to both keep it on the ground and to air it out. However, junior transfer Chris Streveler is also in the running and has the pedigree of being a former B1G quarterback, having spent his first two seasons at Minnesota. In his one start there, he passed only four times while running the ball 18 times. If he ends up getting the starting job, the Coyotes’ offense might be even more rush-heavy than before. One x-factor in all of this is that 8 starters return from last year’s offense, so it will be interesting to see if Nielson keeps the playbook that they’re used to, or if he throws it out and completely goes with what he’s comfortable with.

On defense, the Coyotes only return four starters, but they’re still an experienced group. Six of the projected starters are seniors and another four are juniors. Their leader, and co-captain, is senior free safety Tyson Graham. Graham, a preseason all-conference selection, led the team in interceptions with four last season and is the leading returning tackler. The other safety, senior Jacob Warner, is another guy to keep an eye on, as he had three interceptions of his own last year. Their returning sack leader is senior defensive end Colin Mertlik, who ended the year with three sacks and four forced fumbles.

Three Things to Watch

1. If there is any major concern that I have about this Lobo team going into the season, it’s with the offensive line. With Garrett Adcock out this week, the Lobos will have 3/5 of their offensive line staffed by players with a combined one start between them. However, even though there are a lot of new faces in this unit, it appears to be as big and as deep of an offensive line that Coach Davie has had in his time here, so how quickly they mesh as a unit will be a huge factor in determining how good this offense can be. One thing in particular that I want to see is some effective pass protection. It had a tendency to be inconsistent last year and, I think, led to some of Austin Apodaca’s struggles. If they can give him and Lamar Jordan plenty of time in the backfield, I think that the passing game could start to take off.
2. The Lobo defense showed tremendous improvement last year and, with most of the pieces back, one has to think that the improvement will continue. It’s hard to tell if this game will give us a good sense of how much of an improvement they’ve had. After all, they blanked Mississippi Valley State in last season’s opener and to my knowledge, you can’t hold a team to negative points. But, if they come out and dominate the Coyotes, that will at least be an encouraging sign. If they get lit up, then I might start worrying a little.
3. There are two main goals for the Lobos in this game: win (preferably in a large enough fashion that lots of players can get into the game) and stay healthy. This is the sort of game that you put on your schedule to both get you ready for the rest of the season, and to get you a sixth of the way towards bowl eligibility. If all goes to plan, the Lobos are up big in the second half, the starters are able to rest and avoid injury, and everyone goes home happy. I feel pretty good about seeing that plan in action.

Random Guesses

• 5 different Lobos will score touchdowns.
• The Lobos will force at least 3 turnovers.
• The Lobos will have over 500 yards of total offense.

Game Prediction

We were a little spoiled last year when the Lobos dismantled Mississippi Valley State 66-0, so I don’t think we’ll see quite as extreme of a blowout this year. However, the Lobos should win, and I think they’ll win big. I’ll take them coming out with a 55-13 win.

Game Info

Who: New Mexico Lobos (0-0) vs. South Dakota Coyotes (0-0)

Where: University Stadium, Albuquerque, NM

When: September 1, 2016 at 7pm MT

Watch: Root Sports

Listen: 770 KKOB