Yesterday, the Lobos headed down to Las Cruces to take on the Aggies for the 107th meeting between the two teams. Of the 106 previous meetings, the Lobos had won 70 of them, including the past four. On top of that, the Lobos are coming off a season where they won 7 games, made a bowl game, and have higher goals this year. The Aggies, on the other hand, have won 7 games over the past three seasons, haven’t been to a bowl game since 1960, and are in the process of getting kicked out of their conference. Because of all that, it would have been hard for the Lobos – and the Lobo fans – to not be confident heading into this matchup, thinking that too many things would have to go wrong for the Lobos to not move to 2-0 on the season. Welp.
So what, exactly, went wrong? After all, the Lobos were still in the lead for the vast majority of the game, only falling behind in the last 5:46. I think that it, like most upsets, boils down to mistakes, both by the Lobos and by the guys in stripes, and some bad luck, namely with injuries. Should the game have been close enough in the first place for any single thing to be deciding factor between these two teams? I certainly don’t think so, as I still think the Lobos are the better team, but when these things start to add together, it’s easy to see how the game was not only close, but how it ended with the Aggies coming out with a 32-31 win.
The biggest, most inexcusable mistake that the Lobos made came at the end of the first half. After kicking a field goal to put themselves up 17-9 with 28 seconds in the half, the Lobos found themselves on defense just needing to not give up a big play. Rather than lining up in a prevent defense, the Lobos surprised everyone, including NMSU’s coach, by lining up closer to the line of scrimmage. That allowed NMSU’s fastest receiver, Royce Caldwell, to get behind the secondary for a 49-yard reception to put the Aggies in field goal range. Not to be outdone, the Lobos then committed a pass interference penalty at the goal line, then gave up a 5-yard reception for a touchdown. That took all of 17 seconds for it to go from an 8-point halftime lead, to just a 2-point margin.
The other big mistake the Lobos made was more understandable, but just as costly. In the fourth quarter, up by 6, Austin Apodaca threw an interception that gave the Aggies the ball at the UNM 27-yard line. Just a few minutes later, the Aggies were able to punch it in for the game-winning touchdown. Now, at other points of the game, I think that this would have been seen as just unfortunate, with it seeming more like a good defensive effort than an awful offensive one. But, because of when it happened, it effectively becomes the lasting memory of Apodaca’s night, which masks some of the good things that he did.
Speaking of mistakes and turnovers, the Lobos’ first turnover of the night came on a bit of a controversial call, when Richard McQuarley had the ball stripped out of his arm while lying still on top of a pile. It seemed as though the play probably should have been called dead, but it wasn’t, which means that he was still fair game and the Aggies would keep the football. To the Lobos’ credit, they responded well to that situation, not giving up any yards on the Aggies’ resulting possession and forcing a field goal. Still, they obviously would have liked to have that one back.
Later in the game, Ryan Santos looked to have picked off a pass by the Aggies that would have given the Lobos the ball in good field position with a 9-point lead. Instead, the officials called a questionable pass interference penalty on Nias Martin, negating the interception and giving the Aggies new life on that drive. They eventually scored a touchdown on that possession to draw within 2. Again, another one the Lobos would have liked to have back.
Still, even with the mistakes by the Lobos and the questionable calls by the refs, the biggest thing that went wrong for the Lobos was an injury. Midway through the second quarter, people started noticing that there was someone important missing from the Lobo defense: Dakota Cox. The reigning Mountain West Defensive Player of the Week made his last appearance on NMSU’s second drive of the third quarter, a three-and-out. From that point on, the Lobos couldn’t stop the Aggies from moving the ball. The next Aggie possessions saw them drive 63 yards for a touchdown. Then, they went 57 yards to kick a field goal. They followed that up by capitalizing on their interception by taking it the remaining 27 yards for a touchdown. On their last possession, they kneeled it out. Dakota is obviously the main cog in this defense, and losing him was something that they just couldn’t quite recover from. They’ll need to figure it out, though, as it sounds like it might have been a concussion, which would put him out against Rutgers as well.
There’s no way around the fact that this was an awful, crushing loss. So I guess the question is, does this game change my opinion of the team? After going through all of this, I guess my answer is “not really.” They aren’t a terrible team just because they lost to the Aggies and I really don’t think that we’re in store for a 1-11 season. However, what we did see is that even though the program has made some positive strides the past few years, the Lobos just aren’t good enough to have so many things go wrong – both within and outside their control – and still expect to come away with a win, no matter the opponent. After all, it’s hard to win a race when you shoot yourself in the foot.