After having an extra week to lick their wounds after a disappointing loss at Rutgers, the Lobos return to action against San Jose State, in what will serve as the conference season opener for both teams. Both teams have had their struggles this year and are undoubtedly looking to start the conference season out on a good note.
A Little about San Jose State
The Spartans are led by Ron Caragher, who is now in his fourth season with the team. This is also the fourth season that the Spartans have been in the Mountain West and, for the most part, it’s been a struggle for the team. Last year, they got some national attention, but mainly for being a 5-7 team that was invited to a bowl game. In their defense, that’s more of an indictment of how many bowl games there are than anything else and, on top of that, they did win their game.
This season they’ve gotten off to a rough start, going 1-3, losing by a wide margin against all three FBS teams they’ve faced (Tulsa, Utah, and Iowa State). This might have been expected, as the team lost a good chunk of their talent from last season, including RB Tyler Ervin, who thoroughly ran over the Lobos last season. In fact, they’ve already had 12 players make their first career start this season.
Going back to the game last season, where the Lobos lost at San Jose 31-21, Ervin wasn’t the only guy who had a big game for the Spartans. QB Kenny Potter completed 16 of his 20 passes for 181 yards and 2 touchdowns, which gave him the highest-rated game against an FBS school in his career. He’s the starter for the Spartans again this season, although he may not play, as he missed the last game with a leg injury. If he’s out again – which feels a little unlikely to me, honestly – he’ll be replaced by freshman Josh Dove. Dove has had a rough introduction to college football, completing under half of his attempts while sporting a 2:5 touchdown to interception ratio. If he ends up getting the start again, the Lobos will need to take advantage of his inexperience to force turnovers and three-and-outs.
To replace Ervin, the Spartans have turned to Deonte Cooper, a senior transfer from Washington. He’s a talented runner, but has had trouble staying healthy, hence the transfer. He’s been splitting time with Zamore Zigler, a freshman running back who is currently averaging 5.4 yards per carry. The Spartans do return some experience with their receiving corps, with their top two targets from last year, Billy Freeman and Tim Crawley, back for their senior seasons. Freeman is a big tight end who led the team in both receptions and receiving touchdowns last year, while Crawly is a small, fast receiver who is currently leading the team in receptions.
On defense, the Spartans have been led by sophomore linebacker Frank Ginda. He’s already picked up 37 tackles on the season, including 3 sacks. He’s joined by junior free safety Maurice McKnight, who had 30 tackles and an interception so far this season. They’ve also recently got back their top defensive player from last year, Christian Tago, who led the team last year with 124 tackles and was second-team all-conference. The defense has missed him so far, so it will be interesting to see if he can help them turn their season around.
Some Relevant Stats
- San Jose State has been shredded on defense so far this year, giving up at least 450 yards each game. They’ve also given up a whopping 7.0 yards per play, which is 125th out of the 128 FBS teams (for reference, the Lobos sit at 5.0 yards per play, good for 34th overall). The issue doesn’t seem isolated to either the run or the pass defense, either, so that looks like it might be a season-long struggle for them.
- The Spartans have also been pretty turnover-happy. In their three games against FBS opponents, they’ve had three fumbles and seven interceptions. Now, in the Lobos’ two games against FBS opponents, they only forced one turnover, so it will be interesting to see if something gives one way or another.
- The Lobos haven’t beat the Spartans since 1976. They’ve only played three games against each other since then, though.
Scattered Thoughts
- Austin Apodaca is out for an indeterminate amount, so that means for now, it’s the Lamar Jordan show. And that’s totally okay with me. We’ve seen Jordan lead the team to wins in the past and he’s totally comfortable running the offense.
- Dakota Cox is back in the lineup, which should give the defense a huge boost. After he went out with a concussion in the NMSU game, the defense hasn’t quite looked the same. Coach Davie mentioned that he thought that some of the issues on defense had to do with communication on the field between the players, and I can only imagine that having the backbone of the defense back can only help that. I think the defense should have a good game this time, and hopefully they’ll be able to avoid the huge play.
Prediction
I’m still of the mind that, if they can play a clean game, the Lobos can compete with anyone on their schedule. Of course, as we’ve already seen, they’re also fully capable of losing any game on the schedule. That said, I don’t think that this is one they’re going to drop. They’ve had an extra week to prepare, they have most of their key players healthy, and I think that they’re just the better team. I’ll take the Lobos coming away with a 35-24 win.
Game Info
Who: New Mexico Lobos (1-2) vs San Jose State Spartans (1-3)
When: Saturday, October 1, 2016 at 2pm MT
Where: University Stadium, Albuquerque, NM
Watch: Root Sports
Listen: 770 KKOB/94.5 FM