Coming off a bounce-back win against San Jose State, the Lobos now turn their attention to their toughest opponent on the schedule: Boise State. The Broncos have gotten off to a good start already this year, going 4-0, and have dreams of making a BCS bowl. On top of that, they’re not thrilled about what happened last year, when the Lobos rudely went into Boise and took away a 31-24 victory. That win was thought to be program defining, but another win against the Broncos this year could have an even greater effect. Hopefully University Stadium will be rocking on Friday night to help them out.

A Little about Boise State

The Broncos are led by Bryan Harsin, who’s in his 3^rd year with the school, and are coming off a disappointing-for-them 9-4 season. They look like they’ve righted the ship, though, and are currently sitting at 4-0, with wins against FCS Louisiana, Washington St., Oregon St., and Utah State, never trailing in any game. That performance has convinced the voters in both the AP and Coaches polls to rank them 19^th in the country. If they keep up their unbeaten streak, they’ll likely find themselves with their highest ranking since 2011 and in the conversation for one of the premier bowl games.

They return their starting quarterback, Brett Rypien. The sophomore has gotten off to a pretty good start, having already thrown over 1000 yards on the season with a 58% completion ratio and a 7:3 TD:INT ratio. His favorite target has been senior wide receiver Thomas Sperbeck. Sperbeck led the MW in both receptions and receiving yards last season and already has 431 yards this season. Rypien’s second favorite target is actually the running back, Jeremy McNichols. McNichols is currently second in the country in overall touchdowns scored (7 rushing and 3 receiving) and already has a 200-yard, 4-touchdown game under his belt this season. Boise likes to get the ball in his hands regularly, so expect to hear his name called a lot on Friday.

Their defense has been really solid this season, only allowing 18 points per game this season. That unit is led by senior linebacker Tanner Vallejo, who is on the Butkus Award watch list. He and another senior linebacker, Ben Weaver, are the team’s leading tacklers, with 27 and 37, respectively. They also have an experienced secondary who, although they haven’t picked off too many passes yet, have quite a few passes deflected between them. Speaking of passes deflected, senior defensive end Sam McCaskill has batted down four passes already this season, which actually leads the team. All in all, this is an experienced team that can match up with just about anyone in the country.

Some Relevant Stats

• Based on Football Outsider’s S&P+ ratings, Boise State is the 22^nd best team in the country, with the 27^th best offense and the 25^th best defense. By the same ratings, the Lobos are the 94^th ranked team, with the 57^th best offense and the 115^th best defense. The Broncos are a very strong team all around with few weakness, but their biggest strength might be in their run defense. S&P+ has them as the 3^rd best team against the run, as they are only allowing 2.4 yards per carry. That said, they have had some issues defending the triple option in the past, so if that’s still the case, the Lobos might be able to move the ball against this solid defense.
• Although their defense has been good, the Broncos haven’t had much success yet in forcing turnovers. In their first four games, they’ve only recovered one fumble and intercepted one pass.
• Last season, in the Lobos’ 31-24 victory against the Broncos, Boise State collected 40 first downs, compared to the Lobos’ 11. The main things that offset that were the Lobos winning the turnover battle 3-1 and the big plays the Lobos were able to put together.
• Teriyon Gipson leads the FBS in yards per rush attempt among qualified players, with 12.87 YPA. He’s still second on the team in rushing TDs, though, as Richard McQuarley has picked up 7 to Gipson’s 5. Still, either one would be a good choice for your fantasy team.

Scattered Thoughts

• If there’s any question of whether or not Boise State remembers what happened last year, they have a full section in their game notes entitled “Exorcising Demons.” This is the second game on their “Road to Redemption,” as they beat Utah State last weekend, and they seem to be pretty confident that they’ll pull it off. In fact, they note that only two opponents have won back-to-back games against them since 2001, namely SDSU (2012-2013) and Air Force (2014-2015). Personally, I’d like to see the Lobos join that list.
• A couple of years ago, the Lobos hosted Boise State in a game that saw the teams score a combined 109 points and gain an incredible 1,285 yards. Last year, the two teams slowed down a little, only combining for 55 points and 1,054 yards. I’m going to go out on a limb and say that the teams will combine for a bunch of points and yards again in this one.

Prediction

I don’t think that it’s unfair to say that Boise State is the better football team right now and that they should be expected to win. However, for whatever reason, the Lobos have had some success against them the last couple of years, almost taking them out in a shootout in 2014 and then beating them on their home turf last year. I think that the Broncos will end up winning this game, something like 45-35, but I wouldn’t be surprised if it ends up being a wild one. If they are going to win, it’s going to be because the defense stepped up, which they’re totally capable of doing. They just need to do it.

Game Info

Who: New Mexico Lobos (2-2) vs Boise State Broncos (4-0)

When: Friday, October 7, 2016 at 7pm MT

Where: University Stadium, Albuquerque, NM

Watch: CBS Sports Network

Listen: 770 KKOB/94.5 FM